{"updated": "2026-05-11", "label_cn": "纳指 100 · 估值驱动 vs EPS 驱动 (远期口径)", "label_en": "Nasdaq 100 · Multiple-driven vs Earnings-driven (Forward basis)", "method": "forward", "source": {"pe": "Bloomberg BEst 12-month forward P/E, monthly back to 2001", "eps": "Implied forward EPS = year-end price ÷ year-end forward PE", "priceReturn": "^NDX year-end close YoY (yfinance daily)"}, "note_cn": "纳指没有干净的历史 TTM PE 序列——历史远期 PE 才是机构主要参考的口径,2001 年至今我们有 Bloomberg 的月度快照。因此 NDX 这张表用「远期 PE 倍数变化 + 远期 EPS 修正」拆分:倍数动了多少 = 市场对明年盈利的定价偏好变了多少;EPS 动了多少 = 分析师对下一年 EPS 估计上调或下调了多少。两个数字相加(几何上)等于实际价格回报。注意:这与标普 500 的 TTM 口径不同,读法上是「市场情绪 + 一致预期修正」。", "note_en": "NDX has no clean trailing TTM P/E history; forward P/E is the institutional convention for the index and we have Bloomberg's monthly snapshots back to 2001. So the NDX decomposition reads: 'multiple rerating + consensus revision'. The rerating tells you how the market's appetite for next year's earnings shifted; the revision tells you how analysts updated those next-year estimates. The two compound to the realised price return. Note this is the *forward* basis — not directly comparable with the S&P table's trailing basis. The narrative voice for NDX is 'sentiment + revisions', not 'today's earnings'.", "summary": {"year_range": "2002–2025", "n_years": 24, "n_pe_driven": 7, "n_eps_driven": 5, "n_both_driven": 1, "n_opposite_pe": 3, "n_opposite_eps": 8, "avg_pe_change": 0.0008, "avg_eps_change": 0.1788}, "series": [{"year": 2002, "priceReturn": -0.3758, "peChange": -0.5826, "epsChange": 0.4955, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 32.79, "endingEPS": 30.02}, {"year": 2003, "priceReturn": 0.4912, "peChange": 0.0769, "epsChange": 0.3848, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 35.31, "endingEPS": 41.57}, {"year": 2004, "priceReturn": 0.1044, "peChange": -0.1801, "epsChange": 0.347, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 28.95, "endingEPS": 56.0}, {"year": 2005, "priceReturn": 0.0149, "peChange": -0.1893, "epsChange": 0.2518, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 23.47, "endingEPS": 70.1}, {"year": 2006, "priceReturn": 0.0679, "peChange": 0.1888, "epsChange": -0.1017, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 27.9, "endingEPS": 62.97}, {"year": 2007, "priceReturn": 0.1867, "peChange": -0.038, "epsChange": 0.2336, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 26.84, "endingEPS": 77.68}, {"year": 2008, "priceReturn": -0.4189, "peChange": -0.4434, "epsChange": 0.044, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.94, "endingEPS": 81.1}, {"year": 2009, "priceReturn": 0.5354, "peChange": 0.5181, "epsChange": 0.0114, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.68, "endingEPS": 82.02}, {"year": 2010, "priceReturn": 0.1922, "peChange": -0.2178, "epsChange": 0.5242, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.74, "endingEPS": 125.02}, {"year": 2011, "priceReturn": 0.027, "peChange": -0.2091, "epsChange": 0.2986, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 14.03, "endingEPS": 162.35}, {"year": 2012, "priceReturn": 0.1682, "peChange": 0.0763, "epsChange": 0.0854, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 15.1, "endingEPS": 176.22}, {"year": 2013, "priceReturn": 0.3499, "peChange": 0.294, "epsChange": 0.0432, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 19.54, "endingEPS": 183.83}, {"year": 2014, "priceReturn": 0.1794, "peChange": 0.0235, "epsChange": 0.1522, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 20.0, "endingEPS": 211.81}, {"year": 2015, "priceReturn": 0.0843, "peChange": 0.0075, "epsChange": 0.0762, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 20.15, "endingEPS": 227.95}, {"year": 2016, "priceReturn": 0.0589, "peChange": 0.0392, "epsChange": 0.0189, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 20.94, "endingEPS": 232.26}, {"year": 2017, "priceReturn": 0.3152, "peChange": 0.0759, "epsChange": 0.2223, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 22.53, "endingEPS": 283.91}, {"year": 2018, "priceReturn": -0.0104, "peChange": -0.2059, "epsChange": 0.2463, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.89, "endingEPS": 353.83}, {"year": 2019, "priceReturn": 0.3796, "peChange": 0.365, "epsChange": 0.0107, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 24.42, "endingEPS": 357.62}, {"year": 2020, "priceReturn": 0.4758, "peChange": 0.4345, "epsChange": 0.0288, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 35.03, "endingEPS": 367.92}, {"year": 2021, "priceReturn": 0.2663, "peChange": -0.0888, "epsChange": 0.3896, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 31.92, "endingEPS": 511.28}, {"year": 2022, "priceReturn": -0.3297, "peChange": -0.2917, "epsChange": -0.0537, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.61, "endingEPS": 483.85}, {"year": 2023, "priceReturn": 0.5381, "peChange": 0.3467, "epsChange": 0.142, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 30.45, "endingEPS": 552.58}, {"year": 2024, "priceReturn": 0.2488, "peChange": 0.0867, "epsChange": 0.1492, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 33.09, "endingEPS": 635.0}, {"year": 2025, "priceReturn": 0.2017, "peChange": -0.0683, "epsChange": 0.2898, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 30.83, "endingEPS": 819.0}]}