{"updated": "2026-05-11", "label_cn": "标普 500 · 估值驱动 vs EPS 驱动 (TTM 口径)", "label_en": "S&P 500 · Multiple-driven vs Earnings-driven (TTM basis)", "method": "trailing", "source": {"pe": "Robert Shiller online data — monthly S&P Composite TTM P/E", "eps": "Robert Shiller online data — quarterly S&P Composite TTM EPS", "priceReturn": "Macrotrends annual S&P 500 price-return series (1928-)"}, "note_cn": "每一年的价格回报 = PE 倍数变化 + EPS 增长。我们用希勒的月度 TTM PE 与季度 TTM EPS,取每年 12 月底为锚点;价格回报直接复用网站既有的标普 500 年度回报序列(Macrotrends 口径)。「驱动」标签按 |ΔPE| 与 |ΔEPS| 的比值与符号分四类:估值驱动、EPS 驱动、双轮驱动、对抗。2008-2009 的 EPS 大起大落、2020 疫情、1933 大萧条反弹——历史上的极端年份都体现为对抗或单边驱动。", "note_en": "Each year's price return decomposes into multiple change + EPS growth. We use Shiller's monthly TTM P/E and quarterly TTM EPS, anchored at December year-end; the price return itself comes from the existing site-wide annual-returns dataset (Macrotrends basis). The 'driver' label sorts each year by the relative magnitude and sign of ΔPE and ΔEPS into four buckets: multiple-driven, EPS-driven, both, or fighting. The extreme years — 2008-2009 earnings collapse + bounce, 2020 pandemic, 1933 Depression rebound — show up as either single-sided drives or hard fights.", "summary": {"year_range": "1928–2025", "n_years": 98, "n_pe_driven": 17, "n_eps_driven": 13, "n_both_driven": 5, "n_opposite_pe": 39, "n_opposite_eps": 24, "avg_pe_change": 0.0473, "avg_eps_change": 0.0657}, "series": [{"year": 1928, "priceReturn": 0.3788, "peChange": 0.0668, "epsChange": 0.2577, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 16.78, "endingEPS": 26.65}, {"year": 1929, "priceReturn": -0.1191, "peChange": -0.208, "epsChange": 0.1598, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.29, "endingEPS": 30.91}, {"year": 1930, "priceReturn": -0.2848, "peChange": 0.2032, "epsChange": -0.3565, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 15.99, "endingEPS": 19.89}, {"year": 1931, "priceReturn": -0.4707, "peChange": -0.1345, "epsChange": -0.3062, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 13.84, "endingEPS": 13.8}, {"year": 1932, "priceReturn": -0.1478, "peChange": 0.2016, "epsChange": -0.2514, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.63, "endingEPS": 10.33}, {"year": 1933, "priceReturn": 0.4408, "peChange": 0.3626, "epsChange": 0.0658, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.66, "endingEPS": 11.01}, {"year": 1934, "priceReturn": -0.0471, "peChange": -0.1659, "epsChange": 0.0963, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 18.9, "endingEPS": 12.07}, {"year": 1935, "priceReturn": 0.4137, "peChange": -0.0921, "epsChange": 0.507, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.16, "endingEPS": 18.19}, {"year": 1936, "priceReturn": 0.2792, "peChange": -0.0251, "epsChange": 0.3227, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.73, "endingEPS": 24.06}, {"year": 1937, "priceReturn": -0.3859, "peChange": -0.4172, "epsChange": 0.0769, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.75, "endingEPS": 25.91}, {"year": 1938, "priceReturn": 0.2455, "peChange": 1.0338, "epsChange": -0.4172, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 19.83, "endingEPS": 15.1}, {"year": 1939, "priceReturn": -0.0518, "peChange": -0.3071, "epsChange": 0.406, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 13.74, "endingEPS": 21.23}, {"year": 1940, "priceReturn": -0.1509, "peChange": -0.27, "epsChange": 0.1583, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 10.03, "endingEPS": 24.59}, {"year": 1941, "priceReturn": -0.1786, "peChange": -0.2473, "epsChange": 0.0049, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.55, "endingEPS": 24.71}, {"year": 1942, "priceReturn": 0.1243, "peChange": 0.2238, "epsChange": -0.1854, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.24, "endingEPS": 20.13}, {"year": 1943, "priceReturn": 0.1945, "peChange": 0.3214, "epsChange": -0.1138, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 12.21, "endingEPS": 17.84}, {"year": 1944, "priceReturn": 0.138, "peChange": 0.154, "epsChange": -0.0331, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.09, "endingEPS": 17.25}, {"year": 1945, "priceReturn": 0.3072, "peChange": 0.2811, "epsChange": 0.0099, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 18.05, "endingEPS": 17.42}, {"year": 1946, "priceReturn": -0.1187, "peChange": -0.2094, "epsChange": -0.0654, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 14.27, "endingEPS": 16.28}, {"year": 1947, "priceReturn": 0.0, "peChange": -0.3455, "epsChange": 0.3956, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 9.34, "endingEPS": 22.72}, {"year": 1948, "priceReturn": -0.0065, "peChange": -0.2901, "epsChange": 0.3812, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 6.63, "endingEPS": 31.38}, {"year": 1949, "priceReturn": 0.1046, "peChange": 0.0754, "epsChange": 0.0344, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.13, "endingEPS": 32.46}, {"year": 1950, "priceReturn": 0.2168, "peChange": -0.0252, "epsChange": 0.1556, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 6.95, "endingEPS": 37.51}, {"year": 1951, "priceReturn": 0.1635, "peChange": 0.3799, "epsChange": -0.1895, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.59, "endingEPS": 30.4}, {"year": 1952, "priceReturn": 0.1178, "peChange": 0.1314, "epsChange": -0.0237, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 10.85, "endingEPS": 29.68}, {"year": 1953, "priceReturn": -0.0662, "peChange": -0.0885, "epsChange": 0.0381, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.89, "endingEPS": 30.81}, {"year": 1954, "priceReturn": 0.4502, "peChange": 0.276, "epsChange": 0.112, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 12.62, "endingEPS": 34.26}, {"year": 1955, "priceReturn": 0.264, "peChange": -0.0071, "epsChange": 0.3018, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 12.53, "endingEPS": 44.6}, {"year": 1956, "priceReturn": 0.0262, "peChange": 0.087, "epsChange": -0.0852, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.62, "endingEPS": 40.8}, {"year": 1957, "priceReturn": -0.1431, "peChange": -0.1211, "epsChange": -0.0397, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 11.97, "endingEPS": 39.18}, {"year": 1958, "priceReturn": 0.3806, "peChange": 0.5464, "epsChange": -0.1572, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 18.51, "endingEPS": 33.02}, {"year": 1959, "priceReturn": 0.0848, "peChange": -0.0589, "epsChange": 0.1532, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.42, "endingEPS": 38.08}, {"year": 1960, "priceReturn": -0.0297, "peChange": -0.0029, "epsChange": -0.0486, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 17.37, "endingEPS": 36.23}, {"year": 1961, "priceReturn": 0.2313, "peChange": 0.2948, "epsChange": -0.0309, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 22.49, "endingEPS": 35.11}, {"year": 1962, "priceReturn": -0.1181, "peChange": -0.241, "epsChange": 0.1353, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 17.07, "endingEPS": 39.86}, {"year": 1963, "priceReturn": 0.1889, "peChange": 0.0808, "epsChange": 0.0778, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.45, "endingEPS": 42.96}, {"year": 1964, "priceReturn": 0.1297, "peChange": 0.0, "epsChange": 0.121, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 18.45, "endingEPS": 48.16}, {"year": 1965, "priceReturn": 0.0906, "peChange": -0.0423, "epsChange": 0.119, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.67, "endingEPS": 53.89}, {"year": 1966, "priceReturn": -0.1309, "peChange": -0.1709, "epsChange": 0.0336, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.65, "endingEPS": 55.7}, {"year": 1967, "priceReturn": 0.2009, "peChange": 0.2205, "epsChange": -0.0679, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 17.88, "endingEPS": 51.92}, {"year": 1968, "priceReturn": 0.0766, "peChange": 0.0341, "epsChange": 0.032, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.49, "endingEPS": 53.58}, {"year": 1969, "priceReturn": -0.1136, "peChange": -0.1476, "epsChange": -0.0551, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 15.76, "endingEPS": 50.63}, {"year": 1970, "priceReturn": 0.001, "peChange": 0.1136, "epsChange": -0.1594, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.55, "endingEPS": 42.56}, {"year": 1971, "priceReturn": 0.1079, "peChange": -0.0085, "epsChange": 0.0761, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 17.4, "endingEPS": 45.8}, {"year": 1972, "priceReturn": 0.1563, "peChange": 0.0517, "epsChange": 0.0891, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 18.3, "endingEPS": 49.88}, {"year": 1973, "priceReturn": -0.1737, "peChange": -0.365, "epsChange": 0.1692, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.62, "endingEPS": 58.32}, {"year": 1974, "priceReturn": -0.2972, "peChange": -0.3511, "epsChange": -0.0302, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.54, "endingEPS": 56.56}, {"year": 1975, "priceReturn": 0.3155, "peChange": 0.4775, "epsChange": -0.1627, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.14, "endingEPS": 47.36}, {"year": 1976, "priceReturn": 0.1915, "peChange": -0.0512, "epsChange": 0.1873, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 10.57, "endingEPS": 56.23}, {"year": 1977, "priceReturn": -0.115, "peChange": -0.1845, "epsChange": 0.0299, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 8.62, "endingEPS": 57.91}, {"year": 1978, "priceReturn": 0.0106, "peChange": -0.0963, "epsChange": 0.0385, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 7.79, "endingEPS": 60.14}, {"year": 1979, "priceReturn": 0.1231, "peChange": -0.0693, "epsChange": 0.0639, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 7.25, "endingEPS": 63.98}, {"year": 1980, "priceReturn": 0.2577, "peChange": 0.2428, "epsChange": -0.1136, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.01, "endingEPS": 56.71}, {"year": 1981, "priceReturn": -0.0973, "peChange": -0.1054, "epsChange": -0.0485, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 8.06, "endingEPS": 53.96}, {"year": 1982, "priceReturn": 0.1476, "peChange": 0.3685, "epsChange": -0.2074, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.03, "endingEPS": 42.77}, {"year": 1983, "priceReturn": 0.1727, "peChange": 0.0626, "epsChange": 0.0692, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 11.72, "endingEPS": 45.73}, {"year": 1984, "priceReturn": 0.014, "peChange": -0.1561, "epsChange": 0.141, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.89, "endingEPS": 52.18}, {"year": 1985, "priceReturn": 0.2633, "peChange": 0.4348, "epsChange": -0.1541, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.19, "endingEPS": 44.14}, {"year": 1986, "priceReturn": 0.1462, "peChange": 0.21, "epsChange": -0.0197, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 17.17, "endingEPS": 43.27}, {"year": 1987, "priceReturn": 0.0203, "peChange": -0.198, "epsChange": 0.1574, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.77, "endingEPS": 50.08}, {"year": 1988, "priceReturn": 0.124, "peChange": -0.1547, "epsChange": 0.2995, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 11.64, "endingEPS": 65.08}, {"year": 1989, "priceReturn": 0.2725, "peChange": 0.3093, "epsChange": -0.0797, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 15.24, "endingEPS": 59.89}, {"year": 1990, "priceReturn": -0.0656, "peChange": 0.0112, "epsChange": -0.1206, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 15.41, "endingEPS": 52.67}, {"year": 1991, "priceReturn": 0.2631, "peChange": 0.5788, "epsChange": -0.274, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 24.33, "endingEPS": 38.24}, {"year": 1992, "priceReturn": 0.0446, "peChange": -0.0621, "epsChange": 0.1616, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 22.82, "endingEPS": 44.42}, {"year": 1993, "priceReturn": 0.0706, "peChange": -0.067, "epsChange": 0.1162, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 21.29, "endingEPS": 49.58}, {"year": 1994, "priceReturn": -0.0154, "peChange": -0.3011, "epsChange": 0.3614, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 14.88, "endingEPS": 67.5}, {"year": 1995, "priceReturn": 0.3411, "peChange": 0.2164, "epsChange": 0.0824, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 18.1, "endingEPS": 73.06}, {"year": 1996, "priceReturn": 0.2026, "peChange": 0.0602, "epsChange": 0.1038, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 19.19, "endingEPS": 80.64}, {"year": 1997, "priceReturn": 0.3101, "peChange": 0.2626, "epsChange": 0.0083, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 24.23, "endingEPS": 81.31}, {"year": 1998, "priceReturn": 0.2667, "peChange": 0.3025, "epsChange": -0.0656, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 31.56, "endingEPS": 75.98}, {"year": 1999, "priceReturn": 0.1953, "peChange": -0.0602, "epsChange": 0.2439, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 29.66, "endingEPS": 94.51}, {"year": 2000, "priceReturn": -0.1014, "peChange": -0.1025, "epsChange": 0.004, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 26.62, "endingEPS": 94.89}, {"year": 2001, "priceReturn": -0.1304, "peChange": 0.7419, "epsChange": -0.5138, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 46.37, "endingEPS": 46.14}, {"year": 2002, "priceReturn": -0.2337, "peChange": -0.2972, "epsChange": 0.0915, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 32.59, "endingEPS": 50.36}, {"year": 2003, "priceReturn": 0.2638, "peChange": -0.3197, "epsChange": 0.7341, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 22.17, "endingEPS": 87.33}, {"year": 2004, "priceReturn": 0.0899, "peChange": -0.0762, "epsChange": 0.1634, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 20.48, "endingEPS": 101.6}, {"year": 2005, "priceReturn": 0.03, "peChange": -0.1177, "epsChange": 0.1532, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 18.07, "endingEPS": 117.17}, {"year": 2006, "priceReturn": 0.1362, "peChange": -0.0382, "epsChange": 0.1383, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.38, "endingEPS": 133.38}, {"year": 2007, "priceReturn": 0.0353, "peChange": 0.286, "epsChange": -0.2199, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 22.35, "endingEPS": 104.05}, {"year": 2008, "priceReturn": -0.3849, "peChange": 1.6389, "epsChange": -0.7754, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 58.98, "endingEPS": 23.37}, {"year": 2009, "priceReturn": 0.2345, "peChange": -0.6307, "epsChange": 2.335, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 21.78, "endingEPS": 77.94}, {"year": 2010, "priceReturn": 0.1278, "peChange": -0.2631, "epsChange": 0.4951, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.05, "endingEPS": 116.53}, {"year": 2011, "priceReturn": -0.0, "peChange": -0.109, "epsChange": 0.0918, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.3, "endingEPS": 127.23}, {"year": 2012, "priceReturn": 0.1341, "peChange": 0.1497, "epsChange": -0.0221, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 16.44, "endingEPS": 124.42}, {"year": 2013, "priceReturn": 0.296, "peChange": 0.0973, "epsChange": 0.1411, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.04, "endingEPS": 141.98}, {"year": 2014, "priceReturn": 0.1139, "peChange": 0.1131, "epsChange": 0.0134, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 20.08, "endingEPS": 143.88}, {"year": 2015, "priceReturn": -0.0073, "peChange": 0.1823, "epsChange": -0.1604, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 23.74, "endingEPS": 120.8}, {"year": 2016, "priceReturn": 0.0954, "peChange": 0.0008, "epsChange": 0.0705, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 23.76, "endingEPS": 129.32}, {"year": 2017, "priceReturn": 0.1942, "peChange": 0.0206, "epsChange": 0.1381, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 24.25, "endingEPS": 147.18}, {"year": 2018, "priceReturn": -0.0624, "peChange": -0.2004, "epsChange": 0.1823, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 19.39, "endingEPS": 174.01}, {"year": 2019, "priceReturn": 0.2888, "peChange": 0.1748, "epsChange": 0.0299, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.78, "endingEPS": 179.22}, {"year": 2020, "priceReturn": 0.1626, "peChange": 0.7234, "epsChange": -0.3342, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 39.26, "endingEPS": 119.33}, {"year": 2021, "priceReturn": 0.2689, "peChange": -0.3981, "epsChange": 0.964, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 23.63, "endingEPS": 234.36}, {"year": 2022, "priceReturn": -0.1944, "peChange": -0.0415, "epsChange": -0.1799, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 22.65, "endingEPS": 192.2}, {"year": 2023, "priceReturn": 0.2423, "peChange": 0.0751, "epsChange": 0.0778, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 24.35, "endingEPS": 207.15}, {"year": 2024, "priceReturn": 0.2331, "peChange": 0.1745, "epsChange": 0.0615, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 28.6, "endingEPS": 219.9}, {"year": 2025, "priceReturn": 0.1639, "peChange": 0.0227, "epsChange": 0.0644, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 29.25, "endingEPS": 234.06}]}