{
  "_comment": "UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026 (Dimson/Marsh/Staunton, DMS database). Static digitization — this file has no cron and is not refreshed daily; it changes only when a new yearbook is published. Provenance and confidence grades per figure live in src/data/ubsYearbook.ts, which imports this file. Grades: A printed and cross-checked, B one source or commentator-derived, C read off an unlabelled chart.",
  "source": "UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, public summary (24pp)",
  "edition": 2026,
  "window": "1900-2025",
  "ladder": [
    {
      "key": "usEquity",
      "terminal": 124854,
      "cagr": 9.8,
      "realTerminal": 3296,
      "realCagr": 6.6
    },
    {
      "key": "dm",
      "terminal": 28402,
      "cagr": 8.5
    },
    {
      "key": "em",
      "terminal": 4404,
      "cagr": 6.9
    },
    {
      "key": "usBond",
      "terminal": 284,
      "cagr": 4.6,
      "realTerminal": 7.5,
      "realCagr": 1.6
    },
    {
      "key": "usBill",
      "terminal": 69,
      "cagr": 3.4,
      "realTerminal": 1.8,
      "realCagr": 0.5
    },
    {
      "key": "inflation",
      "terminal": 38,
      "cagr": 2.9
    }
  ],
  "ladderSecondHalf": {
    "from": 1960,
    "emCagr": 10.9,
    "dmCagr": 9.6
  },
  "ladderBreadth": {
    "countries": 21,
    "equityBestIn": 21,
    "bondsBeatBillsExcept": 1
  },
  "usShare": [
    {
      "key": "equity",
      "start": 15,
      "end": 62,
      "grade": "A"
    },
    {
      "key": "gdp",
      "start": 24,
      "end": 36,
      "grade": "A"
    },
    {
      "key": "sovereign",
      "start": null,
      "end": 43,
      "grade": "A"
    }
  ],
  "usShareContrast": {
    "ukEquity1900": 25,
    "ukGdp1900": 12,
    "ukGdpNow": 5,
    "franceSovereign1900": 21
  },
  "gdpShare1900": [
    {
      "code": "USA",
      "pct": 24
    },
    {
      "code": "CHN",
      "pct": 17
    },
    {
      "code": "GBR",
      "pct": 12
    },
    {
      "code": "DEU",
      "pct": 10
    },
    {
      "code": "FRA",
      "pct": 9
    },
    {
      "code": "RUS",
      "pct": 8
    },
    {
      "code": "AUT",
      "pct": 5
    },
    {
      "code": "ROW",
      "pct": 8
    }
  ],
  "gdpShareNow": [
    {
      "code": "USA",
      "pct": 36
    },
    {
      "code": "CHN",
      "pct": 23
    },
    {
      "code": "JPN",
      "pct": 5
    },
    {
      "code": "GBR",
      "pct": 5
    },
    {
      "code": "DEU",
      "pct": 4
    },
    {
      "code": "FRA",
      "pct": 3
    },
    {
      "code": "ITA",
      "pct": 3
    },
    {
      "code": "ROW",
      "pct": 10
    }
  ],
  "goldYears": 126,
  "gold": [
    {
      "ccy": "USD",
      "multiple1900": 5.2,
      "cagr1900Printed": 1.3,
      "since1971": 4.7
    },
    {
      "ccy": "GBP",
      "multiple1900": 12.2,
      "since1971": 5.8
    },
    {
      "ccy": "CHF",
      "multiple1900": 3.0,
      "since1971": 4.3
    }
  ],
  "goldHedge": {
    "highInflationYears": 28,
    "highInflationYearsNegativeReal": 13,
    "drawdownsSince1975": 11,
    "drawdownsGoldRose": 8,
    "drawdownsGoldFellLess": 3
  },
  "gold2025Pct": 65,
  "decades": [
    "1920s",
    "1930s",
    "1940s",
    "1950s",
    "1960s",
    "1970s",
    "1980s",
    "1990s",
    "2000s",
    "2010s",
    "2020s"
  ],
  "factors": [
    {
      "key": "momentum",
      "full": 7.7,
      "premia": [
        20.6,
        1.0,
        7.2,
        8.6,
        10.6,
        8.0,
        14.9,
        10.2,
        -1.9,
        4.6,
        12.4
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "lowvol",
      "full": 5.8,
      "premia": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        -4.9,
        5.5,
        16.4,
        0.2,
        13.4,
        4.9,
        1.0
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "value",
      "full": 2.6,
      "premia": [
        -2.4,
        -4.7,
        9.6,
        3.7,
        3.9,
        9.6,
        4.9,
        -2.4,
        7.3,
        -3.4,
        -1.7
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "size",
      "full": 1.9,
      "premia": [
        -12.4,
        3.9,
        5.1,
        -0.1,
        3.2,
        5.3,
        0.2,
        -3.5,
        10.8,
        -0.1,
        -0.2
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "income",
      "full": 1.1,
      "premia": [
        -6.2,
        -2.6,
        5.6,
        0.2,
        1.5,
        4.8,
        4.6,
        -4.1,
        6.3,
        0.7,
        -6.5
      ]
    }
  ],
  "factorNegativeSampleSharePct": 22,
  "industry": {
    "shrunk1900Pct": 80,
    "railways1900Pct": 63,
    "railwaysNowPctMax": 1,
    "newNowPct": 70,
    "techStillBelowRailways1900": true
  }
}