# Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revision

Source: https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/
Language: en
License: data CC BY 4.0, text © History of Market — cite "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)" and link the source page. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/
Section: History of Market › Nasdaq › Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revision

**Nasdaq 100 Return Drivers** — Decomposition of annual returns into fundamental earnings growth versus valuation multiple expansion.

Figure: Plate II.7 · NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; the terminal forward PE series goes back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'.

## Latest Snapshot

- **Data file updated** — 2026-09-29
- **Observations** — 22
- **Sample** — 2002 – 2025

## What this page answers

Decomposing historical performance via the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 22 years of the Nasdaq 100 encompass 6 valuation-led years, 8 earnings-driven years, and 1 dual-expansion years, with the remainder partially offsetting. Over multi-year horizons, structural earnings expansion powers capital appreciation; valuation multiple volatility dictates single-year sentiment and dispersion.

The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

## Nasdaq 100 — calendar year valuation multiple vs earnings per share attribution

| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +20.2% | -4.5% | +25.8% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +7.5% | +16.2% | earnings-driven |
| 2023 | +53.8% | +23.3% | +24.7% | dual expansion |
| 2022 | -33.0% | -29.2% | -5.3% | valuation-led |
| 2021 | +26.6% | -1.5% | +28.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2020 | +47.6% | +31.1% | +12.6% | valuation-led |
| 2019 | +38.0% | +32.5% | +4.2% | valuation-led |
| 2018 | -1.0% | -15.4% | +17.0% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2017 | +31.5% | +9.7% | +19.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2016 | +5.9% | -2.2% | +8.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2015 | +8.4% | +2.9% | +5.4% | earnings-driven |
| 2014 | +17.9% | 0.0% | +17.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2013 | +35.0% | +37.9% | -2.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 2012 | +16.8% | +5.3% | +10.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2011 | +2.7% | -20.2% | +28.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2010 | +19.2% | -13.8% | +38.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2009 | +53.5% | +33.8% | +14.8% | valuation-led |
| 2008 | -41.9% | -39.4% | -4.2% | valuation-led |
| 2007 | +18.7% | -1.5% | +20.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2004 | +10.4% | +11.9% | -1.3% | valuation-led |
| 2003 | +49.1% | +1.5% | +46.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2002 | -37.6% | -46.6% | +16.9% | multiple compression drag |

Complete record (22 rows). Raw dataset: https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json

## Data & Source

[GET /api/ndx/driver-decomp.json](https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json) — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

## FAQ

### Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

### How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh each weekend. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

### Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.

## Related charts and reading

- [Return Decomposition: Valuation Rerating vs. Earnings Growth](https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/) — S&P 500

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Data: https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json
Machine index: https://historyofmarket.com/llms.txt