# S&P 500 — Return Decomposition: Valuation Rerating vs. Earnings Growth

Source: https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/
Language: en
License: data CC BY 4.0, text © History of Market — cite "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)" and link the source page. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/
Section: History of Market › S&P 500 › Return Decomposition: Valuation Rerating vs. Earnings Growth

**Valuation vs EPS Return Drivers** — Mathematical decomposition of annual price returns into valuation multiple rerating versus underlying EPS expansion.

Figure: Plate I.16 · Decomposes annual S&P 500 price returns since 1928 into multiple expansion and trailing EPS growth. Categorizes market outcomes into valuation-driven, earnings-driven, dual-engine, or offsetting regimes, clarifying the fundamental mechanics behind historical bull and bear runs.

## Latest Snapshot

- **Data file updated** — 2026-09-29
- **Observations** — 98
- **Sample** — 1928 – 2025

## What this page answers

Decomposing historical performance via the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 98 years of the S&P 500 encompass 17 valuation-led years, 13 earnings-driven years, and 5 dual-expansion years, with the remainder partially offsetting. Over multi-year horizons, structural earnings expansion powers capital appreciation; valuation multiple volatility dictates single-year sentiment and dispersion.

The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

## S&P 500 — calendar year valuation multiple vs earnings per share attribution

| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +16.4% | +2.3% | +11.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2024 | +23.3% | +17.5% | +6.2% | valuation-led |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +7.5% | +7.8% | dual expansion |
| 2022 | -19.4% | -4.2% | -18.0% | earnings-driven |
| 2021 | +26.9% | -39.8% | +96.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2020 | +16.3% | +72.3% | -33.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 2019 | +28.9% | +17.5% | +3.0% | valuation-led |
| 2018 | -6.2% | -20.0% | +18.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2017 | +19.4% | +2.1% | +13.8% | earnings-driven |
| 2016 | +9.5% | +0.1% | +7.0% | earnings-driven |
| 2015 | -0.7% | +18.2% | -16.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 2014 | +11.4% | +11.3% | +1.3% | valuation-led |
| 2013 | +29.6% | +9.7% | +14.1% | dual expansion |
| 2012 | +13.4% | +15.0% | -2.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2011 | -0.0% | -10.9% | +9.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2010 | +12.8% | -26.3% | +49.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2009 | +23.5% | -63.1% | +233.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2008 | -38.5% | +163.9% | -77.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 2007 | +3.5% | +28.6% | -22.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 2006 | +13.6% | -3.8% | +13.8% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2005 | +3.0% | -11.8% | +15.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2004 | +9.0% | -7.6% | +16.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2003 | +26.4% | -32.0% | +73.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2002 | -23.4% | -29.7% | +9.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2001 | -13.0% | +74.2% | -51.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 2000 | -10.1% | -10.3% | +0.4% | valuation-led |
| 1999 | +19.5% | -6.0% | +24.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1998 | +26.7% | +30.3% | -6.6% | multiple compression drag |
| 1997 | +31.0% | +26.3% | +0.9% | valuation-led |
| 1996 | +20.3% | +6.0% | +10.4% | earnings-driven |
| 1995 | +34.1% | +21.6% | +8.2% | valuation-led |
| 1994 | -1.5% | -30.1% | +36.2% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1993 | +7.1% | -6.7% | +11.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1992 | +4.5% | -6.2% | +16.2% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1991 | +26.3% | +57.9% | -27.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1990 | -6.6% | +1.1% | -12.0% | earnings-driven |
| 1989 | +27.3% | +30.9% | -8.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1988 | +12.4% | -15.5% | +30.0% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1987 | +2.0% | -19.8% | +15.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1986 | +14.6% | +21.0% | -2.0% | valuation-led |
| 1985 | +26.3% | +43.5% | -15.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1984 | +1.4% | -15.6% | +14.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 1983 | +17.3% | +6.3% | +6.9% | dual expansion |
| 1982 | +14.8% | +36.9% | -20.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1981 | -9.7% | -10.5% | -4.9% | valuation-led |
| 1980 | +25.8% | +24.3% | -11.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1979 | +12.3% | -6.9% | +6.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1978 | +1.1% | -9.6% | +3.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1977 | -11.5% | -18.5% | +3.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1976 | +19.2% | -5.1% | +18.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1975 | +31.6% | +47.8% | -16.3% | multiple compression drag |
| 1974 | -29.7% | -35.1% | -3.0% | valuation-led |
| 1973 | -17.4% | -36.5% | +16.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1972 | +15.6% | +5.2% | +8.9% | earnings-driven |
| 1971 | +10.8% | -0.9% | +7.6% | earnings-driven |
| 1970 | +0.1% | +11.4% | -15.9% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1969 | -11.4% | -14.8% | -5.5% | valuation-led |
| 1968 | +7.7% | +3.4% | +3.2% | dual expansion |
| 1967 | +20.1% | +22.1% | -6.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1966 | -13.1% | -17.1% | +3.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1965 | +9.1% | -4.2% | +11.9% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1964 | +13.0% | 0.0% | +12.1% | earnings-driven |
| 1963 | +18.9% | +8.1% | +7.8% | dual expansion |
| 1962 | -11.8% | -24.1% | +13.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 1961 | +23.1% | +29.5% | -3.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 1960 | -3.0% | -0.3% | -4.8% | earnings-driven |
| 1959 | +8.5% | -5.9% | +15.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1958 | +38.1% | +54.6% | -15.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1957 | -14.3% | -12.1% | -4.0% | valuation-led |
| 1956 | +2.6% | +8.7% | -8.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 1955 | +26.4% | -0.7% | +30.2% | earnings-driven |
| 1954 | +45.0% | +27.6% | +11.2% | valuation-led |
| 1953 | -6.6% | -8.9% | +3.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1952 | +11.8% | +13.1% | -2.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1951 | +16.4% | +38.0% | -18.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1950 | +21.7% | -2.5% | +15.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1949 | +10.5% | +7.5% | +3.5% | valuation-led |
| 1948 | -0.7% | -29.0% | +38.1% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1947 | 0.0% | -34.6% | +39.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1946 | -11.9% | -20.9% | -6.5% | valuation-led |
| 1945 | +30.7% | +28.1% | +0.9% | valuation-led |
| 1944 | +13.8% | +15.4% | -3.3% | multiple compression drag |
| 1943 | +19.5% | +32.1% | -11.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1942 | +12.4% | +22.4% | -18.6% | multiple compression drag |
| 1941 | -17.9% | -24.7% | +0.5% | valuation-led |
| 1940 | -15.1% | -27.0% | +15.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1939 | -5.2% | -30.7% | +40.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1938 | +24.6% | +103.4% | -41.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1937 | -38.6% | -41.7% | +7.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1936 | +27.9% | -2.5% | +32.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1935 | +41.4% | -9.2% | +50.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1934 | -4.7% | -16.6% | +9.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1933 | +44.1% | +36.3% | +6.5% | valuation-led |
| 1932 | -14.8% | +20.2% | -25.1% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1931 | -47.1% | -13.5% | -30.7% | earnings-driven |
| 1930 | -28.5% | +20.3% | -35.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1929 | -11.9% | -20.8% | +16.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1928 | +37.9% | +6.7% | +25.8% | earnings-driven |

Complete record (98 rows). Raw dataset: https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json

## Data & Source

[GET /api/sp500/driver-decomp.json](https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json) — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

## FAQ

### Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

### How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh each weekend. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

### Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.

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Data: https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json
Machine index: https://historyofmarket.com/llms.txt