https://historyofmarket.com/ 2026-04-25 daily 1.0 https://historyofmarket.com/og/cover.png History of Market — The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market Editorial masthead and century-scale S&P 500 line chart. https://historyofmarket.com/llms.txt 2026-04-25 weekly 0.6 https://historyofmarket.com/llms-full.txt 2026-04-25 weekly 0.6 https://historyofmarket.com/ai.txt 2026-04-25 monthly 0.5 https://historyofmarket.com/api/_manifest.json 2026-04-25 daily 0.5 https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png Nearly a Century of Annual Verdicts Since 1928, every bar is a year-end reckoning — green for gains, red for losses. The caption below tallies up / down / flat counts and the record best and worst years, recomputed live from the data. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png What Annual Returns Actually Look Like Every year since 1928 binned by total return (dividends reinvested) into eleven buckets. The 10% 'average' is only an average — real years almost never land near it. Train your intuition for the fat-tailed shape of market returns. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png Pick Any Entry Year, Any Exit Year Each cell below the diagonal represents a hypothetical hold. The longer the holding period, the tighter annualized returns converge toward the long-term mean. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png Five Years Later, the Typical Annualized Return Every five-year rolling window since 1928. Fewer than one in ten came back negative. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png Fourteen Crossings of Zero On a log year-over-year scale, positive is bull and negative is bear. Fourteen zero-line crossings since 1928 — each one a handoff between cycles. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png Every Deep Fall Carries a Name From the 1929 cliff to the 2020 pandemic shock. Dozens of meaningful drawdowns leave their own shape and footnote here. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png Deepest Intrayear Drop vs Year-End Outcome Ninety-nine years: intrayear drawdown averages about 14% — every year carries a stretch that feels like a reason to sell — yet the year-end average still closes positive. Investors who sit through the mismatch between process and outcome are usually compensated by the close. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png The Market's Breathing Rate 20-day and 60-day annualized volatility. Long-term median is around 15%. Readings above 30% typically mark transitional phases in the cycle. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — The Insurance Tab A market-implied measure of 30-day volatility. VIX above 30 means investors are already paying to hedge the next risk event. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png Twelve Months of Seasonality Monthly return colours since 2000. November and April carry the highest win rates; September has the longest history of negative months. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE — The Cycle-Smoothed P/E Uses ten-year inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, filtering out business-cycle noise. Historical mean is roughly 17×; today's reading sits near the upper edge of its century-long range. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE — America's Equity Allocation Equity market value ÷ (equity + bonds + cash). As a predictor of ten-year forward returns, AIAE carries slightly more explanatory power than CAPE. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 Earnings Per Share (TTM) Trailing twelve months. Earnings are the source of valuation's numerator and the bedrock of long-term price. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · Return on Equity Annual profit produced per dollar of shareholder equity. Remarkably stable near 15% over the past two decades — the index's earnings-power anchor. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png Total Return = Price + Dividend + Buyback Since 1999. The sum of all three is what an investor actually receives each year. Buybacks' share is gradually overtaking dividends as the second pillar of return. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · Equal-Weight Index of the Seven Jan 3, 2022 = 100. These seven stocks have driven the bulk of the index's recent advance and sit at the centre of every concentration debate. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS Eleven-Sector Weight Distribution Information technology leads by a wide margin; financials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary follow. The sector pie itself reads as a short history of American industry. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png Market Cap · 1-Year Return · Index Weight X-axis is market cap, Y-axis is trailing 12-month return, bubble size is index weight. A single chart covering every constituent. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png A Log of Additions and Deletions The last decade of constituent changes. Each entry captures the rise or decline of a listed company — the mechanism by which the index stays current with the U.S. economy. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png How the S&P 500 Is Actually Built Eligibility thresholds, weighting methodology, and the governance of constituent changes. The rules determine which companies qualify to represent the U.S. large-cap market. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png Nasdaq Composite — Half a Century, Start to Now Opened at 100 on 5 February 1971; now above 16,000. The line runs parallel to the rise of American technology. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png Nasdaq Bull/Bear — Log Year-Over-Year Crosses zero more often than the S&P's, and dips deeper when it does. The dot-com unwind of 2000 and the tightening of 2022 are the two deepest negative stretches — the tech index's bull-to-bear transitions are sharper, so the same regime line fires more often. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ Annual Returns Roughly 15% annualized since 1999. The deepest single-year loss came in 2008 at -42%. High return and high volatility travel together. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png Nasdaq 100 Annual Return Distribution Every year since 1986 binned by total return (dividends reinvested) into eleven buckets. Across 41 years the right tail cleared +50% five times and the left tail broke -40% once — a first-hand feel for 'high mean ≠ steady growth'. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png Nasdaq 100 · Pick Entry, Pick Exit The annualized return matrix since 1986. Longer holds pull annualized outcomes toward the long-term mean. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png Nasdaq 100 · Five-Year Rolling Annualized Monthly observations since 1990, each looking back five years. The deepest windows touched -20% annualised — buying the 2000 peak still left you underwater by 2005. The distribution runs wider than the S&P 500's: the best five years go higher, the worst five years go deeper. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png Nasdaq 100 · Fifty-Nine Historical Drawdowns Down 83% cumulatively from 2000 to 2002. Still the clearest textbook case of a bubble and its unwind. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png Nasdaq 100 · Deepest Intrayear Drop vs Year-End Outcome Intrayear drawdown averages about 18%, yet 83% of years still close green and the year-end average lands near +18%. Tech's appeal and cost live in that gap — 2000, 2008, and 2022 are the years when the trade didn't pay. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png Nasdaq 100 · 20/60-Day Annualized Volatility Median near 22%, systematically one notch above the S&P 500. Structural high vol isn't a regime change for the tech asset class — it's the baseline. Owning the index means accepting the wider amplitude. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index Launched by CBOE in 2001. A VXN reading above 35 typically signals that technology has entered systemic risk territory. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png Nasdaq 100 Monthly Return Heatmap Since 1985. November and December post the highest monthly win rates; January and September register the most frequent declines. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ Total Return · Price / Dividend / Buyback Six years of reliable buyback data. Within tech's total return, the buyback component continues to grow. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png Nasdaq 100 · Constituents and Weight Distribution The weight gap between the top-15 and the remaining 85 is unusually wide. The more concentrated the index, the more its performance depends on a handful of leaders. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png Top 25 Holdings & Cumulative Weight The top seven names together account for roughly half of the index. Buying QQQ is, in practice, a concentrated bet on those seven leaders. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png Constituent 1-Year Return Rankings From first place to hundredth, the dispersion across constituents is unusually wide. Long-run Nasdaq 100 performance is carried, consistently, by a small group at the top. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png Nasdaq 100 · YTD Return Rankings Ranked by calendar-year return; the list updates daily. Rotation between leaders and laggards is a useful lens on the current market narrative. https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 近一个世纪的年度涨跌 1928 年以来，每一根柱子都是一次年末结账——绿柱是盈利年，红柱是亏损年。图下方动态统计盈 / 亏 / 持平年数与历史最佳、最差。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年度回报的真实长相 把 1928 年以来每一年按总回报（含股息）装进 11 个区间 · 平均 10% 只是均值，真实年份极少落在均值附近 · 训练对「市场回报的肥尾分布」的直觉。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 任选买入年份与卖出年份 对角线以下每一格，代表一次假设的持有。持有期越长，年化回报越向长期均值收敛。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 五年之后，年化回报通常是多少 1928 年以来每一个五年滚动窗口的年化收益。负回报的窗口不足一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 十四次穿越零线 对数同比下，正值代表牛市、负值代表熊市。1928 年以来共 14 次穿越零线，每一次都是市场周期的换挡。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 每一次深跌都有名字 从 1929 年的断崖，到 2020 年的疫情冲击。数十次大幅回撤在这里各自留下形状与注脚。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 九十九年里，年内平均回撤约 14%——每一年都有一段让人想离场的区间；但到了年末，平均值仍然是正的。能穿越这种「过程与结果的错位」的投资者，最后通常得到了补偿。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 市场的呼吸频率 20 日与 60 日年化波动率。长期中位约 15%。历史上每次突破 30%，背后几乎都有一轮阶段性转折。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保险费的账本 衡量市场对未来 30 天的波动预期。VIX 冲破 30，意味着投资者已经在为下一轮风险付保费。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 一年十二个月的季节性 2000 年以来，每一个月的涨跌记录。11 月与 4 月的上涨概率最高，9 月历来最容易见红。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png 席勒 CAPE · 周期平滑后的市盈率 以十年平均通胀调整盈利为分母，把经济周期的噪音平滑掉。历史均值约 17 倍；今天的水平，已经贴近一个世纪以来的上沿。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 美国居民的股票配置比例 股票市值 ÷（股票 + 债券 + 现金）。作为未来十年回报的预测变量，AIAE 的解释力比 CAPE 略胜一筹。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png 标普 500 · 每股收益（TTM） 滚动 12 个月口径。利润是估值分子的来源，也是长期股价的地基。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png 标普 500 · 净资产收益率 每一美元股东权益产生的年化利润。过去二十年稳定在 15% 上下——指数盈利能力的底线所在。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 总回报 = 价格 + 股息 + 回购 1999 年以来。三项叠起来，才是投资者实际到手的年度收益。回购的份额已经超过股息，成为回报的第二支柱。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 七大科技股的等权指数 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。这七只股票贡献了近年指数涨幅的主要部分，也是所有「集中度」讨论的起点。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 十一大行业的权重分布 信息科技遥遥领先；金融、医疗、可选消费依次位列其后。这张行业饼图，本身就是美国产业结构的一张快照。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 市值 · 一年回报 · 指数权重 横轴是市值，纵轴是过去 12 个月的回报，气泡大小代表该公司在指数中的权重。全部五百家一屏之内。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 调入与调出的历史 近十年的成分变更记录。每一笔增删背后，都是一家上市公司的兴衰。指数借此保持与美国经济的节拍一致。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png 标普 500 是如何「编」出来的 入选门槛、权重方法、成分变更的治理流程。规则决定了哪些公司有资格代表美国大盘。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 纳斯达克综指 · 半个世纪的长跑 1971 年 2 月 5 日以 100 点起步，今天已逾 16,000 点。这条曲线，与美国科技产业同步生长。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 纳指牛熊 · 对数同比视角 穿越零线的频率比标普更高，也穿得更深。2000 年互联网泡沫与 2022 年紧缩是最深的两段负区间——科技资产的牛熊切换比大盘更剧烈，同样一条警戒线会响更多次。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年度回报 1999 年以来，年化平均约 15%；最深的单年回撤是 2008 年的 -42%。高收益与高波动，总是一起出现。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 纳指 100 年度回报分布 把 1986 年以来每一年按总回报（含股息）装进 11 个区间 · 41 年样本里右尾超 +50% 有 5 次、左尾低于 -40% 有 1 次 · 感受「高均值 ≠ 稳增长」的肥尾形状。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 纳指 100 · 任选买入与卖出年份 1986 年以来的年化矩阵。持有期越长，年化回报越靠近长期均值。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 纳指 100 · 五年滚动年化收益 1990 年起月频数据，每点回望 5 年。最深的窗口曾触及 -20%——2000 年顶部买入、持有到 2005 年仍然亏损。分布比标普 500 更宽：好的 5 年更好，差的 5 年更深。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 纳指 100 · 五十九次历史回撤 2000–2002 年累计下跌 83%，至今仍是金融史上最典型的泡沫破灭案例。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 纳指 100 · 年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 平均年内回撤约 18%，83% 的年份年末仍收正，平均收 +18%——魅力与代价藏在这两个数字的落差里。2000、2008、2022 是这套机制偶尔失灵的年份。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 纳指 100 · 20/60 日年化波动率 中位数约 22%，系统性高出标普 500 一档。结构性高波动不是例外，是这个资产类别的基准——配置纳指，必须接受这个更大的振幅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 纳指 100 的波动率指数 CBOE 2001 年推出的恐慌指数。VXN 突破 35 时，往往意味着科技股已经进入系统性风险阶段。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 纳指 100 月度回报热力图 1985 年以来。11 月与 12 月的上涨概率最高，1 月与 9 月则最容易见红。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 总回报 · 价格 / 股息 / 回购 近六年有可靠的回购口径数据。对科技股而言，回购在总回报中的份额仍在上升。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 纳指 100 · 成分股与权重分布 前 15 大持仓与剩余 85 只之间的权重落差极大。集中度越高，指数表现越取决于头部少数公司。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 前 25 大持仓与累计权重 前七只成分股合计约占一半权重。买入 QQQ，其中约七成实际押注于这七家龙头。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png 成分股近一年表现排名 从第一到第一百，个股之间的分散度极大。拉长时间看，纳指 100 的大部分收益由头部少数几只推动。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 成分股 YTD 涨跌排名 按日历年度排。榜单每天都在动，领涨与落后的轮换，透露出当前市场的主线。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 九十九年的年度漲跌 自 1928 年起的完整年度報酬紀錄：73 個獲利年、26 個虧損年。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年度報酬的真實樣貌 把 1928 年以來每一年按總回報（含股息）裝進 11 個區間 · 平均 10% 只是均值，真實年份極少落在均值附近 · 訓練對「市場回報的肥尾分佈」的直覺。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 任選買進年份與賣出年份 對角線以下每一格，代表一次假設的持有。持有期越長,年化報酬越向長期均值收斂。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 五年之後,年化報酬通常是多少 1928 年以來每一個五年滾動視窗的年化報酬。負報酬的視窗不到一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 十四次穿越零線 對數年增率之下,正值代表牛市、負值代表熊市。1928 年以來共 14 次穿越零線,每一次都是市場週期的換檔。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 每一次深跌都有名字 從 1929 年的斷崖,到 2020 年的疫情衝擊。數十次大幅回檔在此各自留下形狀與註腳。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年內最深跌幅 vs 全年漲跌 九十九年裡,年內平均回檔約 14%；但到了年末,平均值仍然是正的。能穿越中段波動的投資者,最後通常得到了補償。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 市場的呼吸頻率 20 日與 60 日年化波動率。長期中位約 15%。歷史上每次突破 30%,背後幾乎都有一輪階段性轉折。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保險費的帳本 衡量市場對未來 30 天的波動預期。VIX 衝破 30,意味著投資者已經在為下一輪風險付保費。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 一年十二個月的季節性 2000 年以來,每一個月的漲跌紀錄。11 月與 4 月的上漲機率最高,9 月向來最容易見紅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png 席勒 CAPE · 週期平滑後的本益比 以十年平均通膨調整盈餘為分母,把經濟週期的噪音平滑掉。歷史均值約 17 倍；今日的水平,已經貼近一個世紀以來的上緣。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 美國居民的股票配置比例 股票市值 ÷（股票 + 債券 + 現金）。作為未來十年報酬的預測變數,AIAE 的解釋力比 CAPE 略勝一籌。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png 標普 500 · 每股盈餘（TTM） 滾動 12 個月口徑。盈餘是估值分子的來源,也是長期股價的地基。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png 標普 500 · 股東權益報酬率 每一美元股東權益產生的年化盈餘。過去二十年穩定在 15% 上下——指數獲利能力的底線所在。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 總報酬 = 價格 + 股息 + 回購 1999 年以來。三項疊起來,才是投資者實際到手的年度收益。回購的份額已經超過股息,成為報酬的第二支柱。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 七大科技股的等權指數 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。這七檔股票貢獻了近年指數漲幅的主要部分,也是所有「集中度」討論的起點。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 十一大產業的權重分佈 資訊科技遙遙領先；金融、醫療、非必需消費依次位列其後。這張產業餅圖,本身就是美國產業結構的一張快照。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 市值 · 一年報酬 · 指數權重 橫軸是市值,縱軸是過去 12 個月的報酬,氣泡大小代表該公司在指數中的權重。全部五百家一屏之內。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 納入與剔除的歷史 近十年的成分變更紀錄。每一筆增刪背後,都是一家上市公司的興衰。指數藉此保持與美國經濟的節拍一致。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png 標普 500 是如何「編」出來的 入選門檻、權重方法、成分變更的治理流程。規則決定了哪些公司有資格代表美國大型股。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 納斯達克綜合 · 半個世紀的長跑 1971 年 2 月 5 日以 100 點起步,今天已逾 16,000 點。這條曲線,與美國科技產業同步生長。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 納指牛熊 · 對數年增視角 正負交替。2000 年網路泡沫與 2022 年緊縮,是這條時間軸上兩段最深的負區間。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年度報酬 1999 年以來,年化平均約 15%；最深的單年回檔是 2008 年的 -42%。高報酬與高波動,總是一起出現。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 納指 100 年度報酬分佈 把 1986 年以來每一年按總回報（含股息）裝進 11 個區間 · 41 年樣本裡右尾超 +50% 有 5 次、左尾低於 -40% 有 1 次 · 感受「高均值 ≠ 穩增長」的肥尾形狀。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 納指 100 · 任選買進與賣出年份 1986 年以來的年化矩陣。持有期越長,年化報酬越靠近長期均值。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 納指 100 · 五年滾動年化報酬 1990 年起月頻數據,每個觀測點回看 5 年。負報酬視窗約佔全部樣本的一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 納指 100 · 五十九次歷史回檔 2000–2002 年累計下跌 83%,至今仍是金融史上最典型的泡沫破滅案例。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 納指 100 · 年內最深跌幅 vs 全年漲跌 平均年內回檔約 18%,但年末平均仍收 +18%。科技股的魅力與代價,就藏在這兩個數字的落差裡。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 納指 100 · 20/60 日年化波動率 中位數約 22%,系統性高出標普 500 一檔。對科技產業來說,高波動是常態,不是例外。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 納指 100 的波動率指數 CBOE 2001 年推出的恐慌指數。VXN 突破 35 時,往往意味著科技股已經進入系統性風險階段。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 納指 100 月度報酬熱力圖 1985 年以來。11 月與 12 月的上漲機率最高,1 月與 9 月則最容易見紅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 總報酬 · 價格 / 股息 / 回購 近六年有可靠的回購口徑資料。對科技股而言,回購在總報酬中的份額仍在上升。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 納指 100 · 成分股與權重分佈 前 15 大持股與剩餘 85 檔之間的權重落差極大。集中度越高,指數表現越取決於頭部少數公司。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 前 25 大持股與累計權重 前七檔成分股合計約佔一半權重。買進 QQQ,其中約七成實際壓注於這七家龍頭。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png 成分股近一年表現排名 從第一到第一百,個股之間的分散度極大。拉長時間看,納指 100 的大部分收益由頭部少數幾檔推動。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 成分股 YTD 漲跌排名 按日曆年度排。榜單每天都在動,領漲與落後的輪換,透露出當前市場的主線。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 99 年間の年次成績 1928 年以降のすべての年次リターン記録。プラス 73 年、マイナス 26 年。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年間リターンの実像 1928 年以降のすべての年をトータルリターン（配当再投資）で 11 区間に振り分け。「平均 10%」はあくまで平均値で、実際の年はほとんど平均付近に落ちない。市場リターンの「ファットテール分布」に対する直感を鍛える。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 購入年と売却年を自由に選ぶ 対角線より下の各セルが仮想保有一回分。保有期間が長いほど年率リターンは長期平均へと収束していく。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 5 年後の、典型的な年率リターン 1928 年以降のあらゆる 5 年間。マイナスに終わった窓は全体の 1 割にも満たない。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png ゼロラインを横切った 14 回 対数前年比では、プラスが強気、マイナスが弱気。1928 年以降の交差は 14 回。そのたびに市場はギアを入れ替えてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png すべての深い下落には名前がある 1929 年の断崖から 2020 年のパンデミックまで。数十回の大幅ドローダウンが、それぞれの形と注釈を残している。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年内の最大下落幅 vs 年末リターン 99 年の平均：年内ドローダウンは約 -14%。それでも年末の平均はプラス。途中の揺れを耐えた投資家は、最後には報われてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png マーケットの呼吸数 20 日と 60 日の年率ボラティリティ。長期中央値はおよそ 15%。30% を超えると、ほぼ毎回なんらかの転換点が背後にある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保険料の帳簿 市場が今後 30 日間のボラティリティをどう見ているか。VIX が 30 を超えたら、投資家はすでに次のリスクに保険料を払っている。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 12 か月の季節性 2000 年以降の月別リターン。11 月と 4 月の勝率が最も高く、9 月は歴史的に最も赤字になりやすい。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png シラー CAPE · 景気平滑後の PER 10 年平均のインフレ調整後 EPS を分母にし、景気サイクルのノイズを除いた PER。歴史平均は約 17 倍。現在の水準は 1 世紀の上限付近。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 米国家計の株式配分比率 株式時価 ÷（株式 + 債券 + 現金）。10 年先の期待リターンを予測する変数として、AIAE は CAPE をやや上回る説明力を持つ。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P500 · 1 株あたり利益（TTM） 直近 12 か月ベース。利益はバリュエーションの分子であり、長期株価の土台。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P500 · 自己資本利益率 株主資本 1 ドルあたりの年間利益。過去 20 年間、15% 前後で安定している——指数の収益力の底。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 総リターン = 価格 + 配当 + 自社株買い 1999 年以降。この三つを足して、ようやく投資家の実効年利。自社株買いは配当を超え、リターンの第二の柱となった。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png マグニフィセント 7 · 7 銘柄等加重指数 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。近年の指数上昇の大半を担う 7 銘柄。集中度議論の起点。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 11 セクターのウェイト分布 情報技術が圧倒的首位。金融、ヘルスケア、一般消費財が続く。セクター円グラフは、米国産業構造のスナップショットそのもの。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 時価総額 · 1 年リターン · 指数ウェイト 横軸は時価総額、縦軸は過去 12 か月のリターン、バブルの大きさは指数ウェイト。全 500 社を 1 画面で。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 採用と除外の履歴 過去 10 年の構成変更記録。一つひとつの追加・削除が上場企業の盛衰の記録。指数はこれで米経済と歩調を合わせ続ける。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png S&P500 はどのように「組まれる」のか 採用基準、加重方法、構成変更のガバナンス。ルールが「誰が米国大型株を代表できるか」を決める。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png ナスダック総合 · 半世紀の長距離走 1971 年 2 月 5 日に 100 で発進。現在 16,000 超。この曲線は、米国テクノロジー産業と同時進行で描かれてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png ナスダック強気・弱気 · 対数前年比の視点 プラスとマイナスが交互。2000 年のドットコム解け、2022 年の引き締めが、このタイムライン上で最も深い二つの谷。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年間リターン 1999 年以降の年率平均は約 15%。単年最悪は 2008 年の -42%。高リターンと高ボラティリティは常に同行する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png ナスダック100 年間リターン分布 1986 年以降のすべての年をトータルリターン（配当再投資）で 11 区間に振り分け。41 年の中で右テールが +50% を超えたのは 5 回、左テールが -40% を割り込んだのは 1 回。「高い平均値 ≠ 安定成長」というファットテールの形状を体感する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png ナスダック100 · 購入年・売却年を自由に 1986 年以降の年率マトリックス。保有期間が長いほど年率は長期平均に収束する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png ナスダック100 · 5 年ローリング年率 1990 年以降の月次観測。各点が過去 5 年を振り返る。マイナス窓はおよそ 1 割。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png ナスダック100 · 59 回の歴史的ドローダウン 2000–2002 年の累計下落は -83%。今なおバブル崩壊の最も典型的な教科書例。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png ナスダック100 · 年内最大下落 vs 年末リターン 平均年内ドローダウンは約 -18%、それでも年末平均は約 +18%。テック株の魅力と代償はこの差にある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png ナスダック100 · 20/60 日年率ボラ 中央値は約 22%、S&P500 より構造的に一段上。テックセクターにとって、高ボラは例外ではなく常態。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · ナスダック100 のボラティリティ指数 CBOE が 2001 年に導入。VXN が 35 を超えると、テック株がシステミックなリスク局面に入ったサインとみなされる。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png ナスダック100 月次リターン・ヒートマップ 1985 年以降。11 月と 12 月の勝率が最も高く、1 月と 9 月は赤字になりやすい。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 総リターン · 価格 / 配当 / 自社株買い 信頼できる自社株買いデータが揃う直近 6 年。テック株の総リターンに占める自社株買いの割合は今も上昇中。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png ナスダック100 · 構成銘柄とウェイト分布 上位 15 銘柄と残り 85 銘柄のウェイト差は極めて大きい。集中度が高いほど、指数の成績は少数の首位銘柄に依存する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 上位 25 銘柄と累積ウェイト 上位 7 銘柄でウェイトのおよそ半分。QQQ を買うことは、実質この 7 社に 7 割を賭けること。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png 構成銘柄の直近 1 年リターン順位 1 位から 100 位まで、個別銘柄の分散は非常に大きい。長期的には、少数の首位銘柄がナスダック100 の成績の大半を運ぶ。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 構成銘柄 YTD リターン順位 暦年ベース。リストは日々更新される。首位と最下位の入れ替わりは、その時の市場テーマを映す。 https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png Noventa y nueve veredictos anuales El registro completo de rendimientos anuales desde 1928: 73 años positivos, 26 negativos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png Cómo se ven realmente los rendimientos anuales Cada año desde 1928 clasificado por retorno total (dividendos reinvertidos) en once intervalos. El «10 % promedio» es solo un promedio — los años reales casi nunca caen cerca de él. Entrena la intuición para la forma de cola gruesa de los retornos del mercado. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png Elija cualquier año de entrada y de salida Cada celda bajo la diagonal representa un periodo de tenencia hipotético. Cuanto más larga la retención, más convergen los rendimientos hacia la media de largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png Cinco años después, el rendimiento anualizado típico Toda ventana móvil de cinco años desde 1928. Menos de una de cada diez cerró en negativo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png Catorce cruces de la línea cero En escala logarítmica anual, positivo es alcista y negativo es bajista. Catorce cruces de la línea cero desde 1928 — cada uno, un relevo entre ciclos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png Cada caída profunda tiene nombre Del desplome de 1929 al choque de la pandemia de 2020. Docenas de caídas relevantes dejan aquí su forma y su nota al pie. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png Caída intraanual máxima vs resultado de fin de año Noventa y nueve años: caída intraanual media cercana al -14 %, y sin embargo el promedio de cierre anual sigue siendo positivo. Quien aguanta el tramo medio suele ser compensado al final. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png El ritmo respiratorio del mercado Volatilidad anualizada a 20 y 60 días. Mediana de largo plazo en torno al 15 %. Las lecturas por encima del 30 % suelen marcar fases de transición del ciclo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — La cuenta del seguro Medida implícita de la volatilidad a 30 días. Un VIX por encima de 30 significa que el inversor ya está pagando prima para cubrirse del próximo riesgo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png Doce meses de estacionalidad Rendimientos mensuales desde 2000. Noviembre y abril tienen las mayores tasas de acierto; septiembre es históricamente el mes más difícil. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE — el PER suavizado por ciclo Usa las ganancias ajustadas por inflación a diez años como denominador, filtrando el ruido del ciclo económico. Media histórica cerca de 17×; la lectura de hoy se acerca al borde superior del rango secular. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE — La asignación a renta variable en EE. UU. Valor de mercado de la renta variable ÷ (renta variable + bonos + efectivo). Como predictor de los rendimientos a diez años, AIAE aporta algo más de poder explicativo que el CAPE. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 Beneficio por acción (TTM) Últimos doce meses. Las ganancias son la fuente del numerador de la valoración y la base de los precios a largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · Rentabilidad sobre recursos propios Beneficio anual por cada dólar de patrimonio del accionista. Notablemente estable cerca del 15 % durante las dos últimas décadas — el ancla de la capacidad de generar ganancias del índice. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png Retorno total = Precio + Dividendo + Recompra Desde 1999. La suma de los tres es lo que el inversor recibe realmente cada año. Las recompras superan ya a los dividendos como segundo pilar del retorno. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · Índice equiponderado de las siete 3 de enero de 2022 = 100. Estas siete acciones aportan la mayor parte del avance reciente del índice y ocupan el centro de todo debate sobre concentración. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png Distribución de pesos por los 11 sectores GICS Tecnología de la información lidera con amplio margen; financieras, salud y consumo discrecional siguen a continuación. El gráfico sectorial es también un retrato breve de la industria estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png Capitalización · Retorno 1 año · Peso en índice Eje X: capitalización. Eje Y: retorno a 12 meses. Tamaño de burbuja: peso en el índice. Los quinientos componentes en un solo gráfico. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png Un registro de altas y bajas La última década de cambios de componentes. Cada entrada captura el ascenso o declive de una empresa cotizada — el mecanismo por el que el índice se mantiene al paso de la economía estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png Cómo se construye realmente el S&P 500 Umbrales de elegibilidad, metodología de ponderación y gobernanza de los cambios de componentes. Las reglas determinan qué empresas pueden representar las grandes capitalizaciones estadounidenses. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png Nasdaq Compuesto — Medio siglo, del inicio a hoy Abrió en 100 el 5 de febrero de 1971; hoy supera los 16 000. La línea discurre en paralelo al auge de la tecnología estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png Nasdaq alcista/bajista — Log anual Positivo y negativo se alternan. El derrumbe puntocom de 2000 y el endurecimiento monetario de 2022 son los dos tramos negativos más profundos de esta línea. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ Rendimientos anuales Cerca de 15 % anualizado desde 1999. La peor pérdida en un año llegó en 2008 con -42 %. El alto rendimiento y la alta volatilidad viajan juntos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png Distribución de rendimientos anuales del Nasdaq 100 Cada año desde 1986 clasificado por retorno total (dividendos reinvertidos) en once intervalos. En 41 años la cola derecha superó +50 % cinco veces y la izquierda rompió -40 % una vez — experimenta directamente que «media alta ≠ crecimiento estable». https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png Nasdaq 100 · Elija entrada, elija salida La matriz de rendimientos anualizados desde 1986. Tenencias más largas acercan los resultados anualizados a la media de largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png Nasdaq 100 · Anualizado móvil a cinco años Observaciones mensuales desde 1990, cada una mirando atrás cinco años. Las ventanas negativas son aproximadamente una de cada diez. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png Nasdaq 100 · Cincuenta y nueve caídas históricas Caída acumulada del 83 % entre 2000 y 2002. Sigue siendo el caso de libro sobre el auge y el desmonte de una burbuja. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png Nasdaq 100 · Caída intraanual máxima vs cierre de año Caída intraanual media cercana al -18 %; cierre medio del año aún próximo al +18 %. La relación entre volatilidad y resultado final está en el centro de entender la tecnología. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png Nasdaq 100 · Volatilidad anualizada a 20/60 días Mediana cerca del 22 %, sistemáticamente un escalón por encima del S&P 500. La amplitud elevada es un rasgo estructural del sector, no una anomalía. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · El índice de volatilidad del Nasdaq 100 Lanzado por el CBOE en 2001. Una lectura del VXN por encima de 35 suele indicar que la tecnología ha entrado en territorio de riesgo sistémico. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png Mapa de calor mensual del Nasdaq 100 Desde 1985. Noviembre y diciembre presentan las mayores tasas de acierto; enero y septiembre registran las caídas más frecuentes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png Retorno total del QQQ · Precio / Dividendo / Recompra Seis años con datos fiables de recompras. Dentro del retorno total de la tecnología, la componente de recompra sigue creciendo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png Nasdaq 100 · Componentes y distribución de pesos La diferencia de peso entre las 15 primeras y las 85 restantes es inusualmente grande. Cuanto más concentrado el índice, más depende su rendimiento de un puñado de líderes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png Top 25 tenencias y peso acumulado Los siete primeros nombres suman aproximadamente la mitad del índice. Comprar QQQ es, en la práctica, una apuesta concentrada en esos siete líderes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png Ranking de rendimiento a 1 año de los componentes Del primer al centésimo puesto, la dispersión entre componentes es inusualmente amplia. A largo plazo, el rendimiento del Nasdaq 100 lo lleva, consistentemente, un pequeño grupo en la cabeza. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png Nasdaq 100 · Ranking de retorno YTD Ordenado por retorno del año natural; la lista se actualiza a diario. La rotación entre líderes y rezagados es una lente útil sobre la narrativa del mercado actual. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 99 년간의 연간 성적표 1928 년 이래의 전체 연간 수익률 기록: 상승 73 년, 하락 26 년. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 연간 수익률의 실제 모습 1928년 이래 매년을 총수익(배당 재투자) 기준으로 11개 구간에 배치. '평균 10%'는 어디까지나 평균일 뿐, 실제 연도는 평균 근처에 거의 떨어지지 않는다. 시장 수익률의 '팻테일 분포'에 대한 직관을 단련하라. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 매수 연도와 매도 연도를 자유롭게 선택 대각선 아래 각 칸이 하나의 가상 보유 기간. 보유 기간이 길수록 연환산 수익률은 장기 평균으로 수렴한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 5 년 후, 일반적인 연환산 수익률 1928 년 이후의 모든 5 년 롤링 창. 마이너스로 끝난 창은 전체의 10%도 되지 않는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 제로 라인을 가로지른 14 번 로그 전년비에서 양수는 상승장, 음수는 하락장. 1928 년 이래 제로 라인을 가로지른 것은 14 회 — 매번 시장 사이클의 전환점이었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 모든 깊은 하락에는 이름이 있다 1929 년의 절벽에서 2020 년 팬데믹 충격까지. 수십 차례의 대폭 하락이 저마다의 모양과 주석을 남겼다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 연중 최대 낙폭 vs 연말 수익률 99 년간 연중 평균 낙폭은 약 -14%. 그럼에도 연말 평균은 여전히 플러스. 중간 구간의 변동을 견뎌낸 투자자는 대부분 마지막에 보상받았다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 시장의 호흡 속도 20 일과 60 일 연환산 변동성. 장기 중앙값은 약 15%. 30% 를 넘을 때마다 그 뒤에는 거의 언제나 하나의 전환점이 있었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/vix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — 보험료의 장부 향후 30 일 변동성에 대한 시장의 기대치. VIX 가 30 을 넘으면, 투자자는 이미 다음 리스크에 대한 보험료를 지불하고 있다는 뜻이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 열두 달의 계절성 2000 년 이후의 월별 수익률. 11 월과 4 월의 승률이 가장 높고, 9 월은 역사적으로 가장 힘든 달이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/pe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE · 경기 평활 후 PER 10 년 평균 인플레이션 조정 이익을 분모로 사용해 경기 사이클의 노이즈를 걸러낸다. 역사적 평균은 약 17 배. 오늘의 수치는 한 세기 내내 쌓아온 범위의 상단 가까이에 있다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/aiae/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 미국 가계의 주식 배분 비율 주식 시가 ÷ (주식 + 채권 + 현금). 향후 10 년 수익률을 예측하는 변수로서, AIAE 는 CAPE 보다 설명력이 약간 더 높다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/eps/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 · 주당 순이익 (TTM) 최근 12 개월 기준. 이익은 밸류에이션 분자의 원천이자 장기 주가의 토대다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/roe/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · 자기자본 이익률 주주 자본 1 달러당 연간 이익. 지난 20 년간 15% 전후에서 놀라울 정도로 안정적 — 지수 수익력의 최후 저지선이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 총수익 = 가격 + 배당 + 자사주 매입 1999 년 이후. 이 세 가지를 합쳐야 투자자가 실제로 받는 연간 수익이다. 자사주 매입은 배당을 넘어 수익의 두 번째 기둥이 되었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/m7/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 7 대 빅테크 동일가중 지수 2022 년 1 월 3 일 = 100. 최근 지수 상승의 대부분을 이 일곱 종목이 이끌었으며, 모든 '집중도' 논의의 출발점이 된다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/sectors/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 11 개 섹터의 비중 분포 정보기술이 큰 격차로 선두; 금융, 헬스케어, 경기소비재가 그 뒤를 잇는다. 섹터 파이 그래프 자체가 미국 산업 구조의 스냅숏이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/scatter/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 시가총액 · 1 년 수익률 · 지수 비중 X축은 시가총액, Y축은 최근 12 개월 수익률, 버블 크기는 지수 내 비중. 500 개 구성 종목을 한 화면에. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/changes/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 편입과 편출의 역사 최근 10 년의 구성 변경 기록. 각 항목은 상장사의 흥망을 담고 있다 — 지수가 미국 경제의 변화에 보조를 맞추는 메커니즘이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/rules/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png S&P 500 은 실제로 어떻게 '만들어지는가' 편입 기준, 가중 방식, 구성 변경 거버넌스. 규칙이 어떤 기업이 미국 대형주를 대표할 자격을 갖는지를 결정한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 나스닥 종합지수 · 반세기의 장거리 주행 1971 년 2 월 5 일 100 포인트로 출발. 오늘은 16,000 을 넘겼다. 이 곡선은 미국 테크 산업의 성장과 나란히 달려왔다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 나스닥 상승·하락 · 로그 전년비 시각 양수와 음수가 교차한다. 2000 년 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 2022 년 긴축 국면이 이 타임라인에서 가장 깊은 두 개의 음구간이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 연간 수익률 1999 년 이후 연환산 평균은 약 15%. 최악의 단일 연도 손실은 2008 년 -42%. 높은 수익률과 높은 변동성은 늘 함께 온다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 나스닥 100 연간 수익률 분포 1986년 이래 매년을 총수익(배당 재투자) 기준으로 11개 구간에 배치. 41년 표본에서 오른쪽 꼬리가 +50%를 넘은 것이 5회, 왼쪽 꼬리가 -40% 아래로 떨어진 것이 1회. '높은 평균 ≠ 안정 성장'이라는 팻테일의 형상을 체감하라. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 나스닥 100 · 매수·매도 연도 자유 선택 1986 년 이후의 연환산 매트릭스. 보유 기간이 길수록 결과는 장기 평균으로 수렴한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 나스닥 100 · 5 년 롤링 연환산 수익률 1990 년 이후 월별 관측치. 각 점은 과거 5 년을 돌아본다. 음의 창은 전체 표본의 약 10%. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 나스닥 100 · 59 차례의 역사적 낙폭 2000–2002 년 누적 하락은 -83%. 지금도 버블과 그 해체의 가장 명료한 교과서 사례. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 나스닥 100 · 연중 최대 낙폭 vs 연말 수익률 연중 평균 낙폭은 약 -18%, 그러나 연말 평균은 여전히 +18% 근처. 변동성과 최종 수익의 이 관계가 테크를 이해하는 핵심이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 나스닥 100 · 20/60 일 연환산 변동성 중앙값은 약 22%, 구조적으로 S&P 500 보다 한 단계 높다. 테크 섹터에서 높은 진폭은 예외가 아니라 상수다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 나스닥 100 의 변동성 지수 CBOE 가 2001 년에 도입. VXN 이 35 를 넘으면 보통 테크가 시스템 리스크 구간에 들어갔다는 신호로 읽는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 나스닥 100 월별 수익률 히트맵 1985 년 이후. 11 월과 12 월의 월간 승률이 가장 높고, 1 월과 9 월이 가장 자주 하락한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 총수익 · 가격 / 배당 / 자사주 매입 신뢰할 만한 자사주 매입 데이터가 확보된 최근 6 년. 테크의 총수익 안에서 자사주 매입의 비중은 여전히 상승 중이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 나스닥 100 · 구성 종목과 비중 분포 상위 15 종목과 나머지 85 종목의 비중 격차가 매우 크다. 지수가 집중될수록 성적은 소수의 선두 기업에 더 많이 의존한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 상위 25 종목과 누적 비중 상위 7 종목이 지수의 약 절반을 차지한다. QQQ 매수는 실질적으로 이 일곱 선두주에 집중된 베팅이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-member-returns/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-member-returns.png 구성 종목 최근 1 년 수익률 순위 1 위부터 100 위까지, 개별 종목 간 분산이 매우 크다. 장기적으로 나스닥 100 의 수익 대부분은 상단의 소수 종목이 이끈다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-04-25 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 구성 종목 YTD 수익률 순위 달력 연도 수익률로 정렬. 목록은 매일 갱신된다. 선두와 후위의 교대가 현재 시장의 주요 테마를 드러낸다.