https://historyofmarket.com/ 2026-05-11 daily 1.0 https://historyofmarket.com/og/cover.png History of Market — The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market Editorial masthead and century-scale S&P 500 line chart. https://historyofmarket.com/en/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.95 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.85 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.85 https://historyofmarket.com/es/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.85 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.85 https://historyofmarket.com/llms.txt 2026-05-11 weekly 0.6 https://historyofmarket.com/llms-full.txt 2026-05-11 weekly 0.6 https://historyofmarket.com/ai.txt 2026-05-11 monthly 0.5 https://historyofmarket.com/api/profile.json 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/api/_manifest.json 2026-05-11 daily 0.5 https://historyofmarket.com/articles/sp500-100-year-history.html 2026-05-11 monthly 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/articles/us-stock-max-drawdowns.html 2026-05-11 monthly 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/articles/us-stock-valuation-now.html 2026-05-11 weekly 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/articles/sp500-100-year-returns.html 2026-05-11 monthly 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/articles/shiller-pe-current.html 2026-05-11 weekly 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/embeds/ 2026-05-11 monthly 0.6 https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.9 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png Nearly a Century of Annual Verdicts Since 1928, every bar is a year-end reckoning — green for gains, red for losses. The caption below tallies up / down / flat counts and the record best and worst years, recomputed live from the data. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png Market Cap · 1-Year Return · Index Weight X-axis is market cap, Y-axis is trailing 12-month return, bubble size is index weight. A single chart covering every constituent. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png What Annual Returns Actually Look Like Every year since 1928 binned by total return (dividends reinvested) into eleven buckets. The 10% 'average' is only an average — real years almost never land near it. Train your intuition for the fat-tailed shape of market returns. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png Pick Any Entry Year, Any Exit Year Each cell below the diagonal represents a hypothetical hold. The longer the holding period, the tighter annualized returns converge toward the long-term mean. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png Five Years Later, the Typical Annualized Return Every five-year rolling window since 1928. Fewer than one in ten came back negative. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png Total Return = Price + Dividend + Buyback Since 1999. The sum of all three is what an investor actually receives each year. Buybacks' share is gradually overtaking dividends as the second pillar of return. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png Fourteen Crossings of Zero On a log year-over-year scale, positive is bull and negative is bear. Fourteen zero-line crossings since 1928 — each one a handoff between cycles. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png S&P 500 · Trailing PE vs. Forward PE Two lines on the same axis. The trailing curve is cap-weighted Σ(w·P)/Σ(w·trailingEps) computed daily across 500 constituents and seeded with multpl monthly data for the years before that. The forward curve is Bloomberg's "BEst P/E Ratio" — the 12-month consensus estimate — quarter-end points back to 1990 plus the most recent reading, native quarterly. The gap between the two is the market's bet on where earnings are heading. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE — The Cycle-Smoothed P/E Uses ten-year inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, filtering out business-cycle noise. Historical mean is roughly 17×; today's reading sits near the upper edge of its century-long range. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE — America's Equity Allocation Equity market value ÷ (equity + bonds + cash). As a predictor of ten-year forward returns, AIAE carries slightly more explanatory power than CAPE. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 Earnings Per Share (TTM) Trailing twelve months. Earnings are the source of valuation's numerator and the bedrock of long-term price. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · Return on Equity Annual profit produced per dollar of shareholder equity. Remarkably stable near 15% over the past two decades — the index's earnings-power anchor. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png Was it a multiple year or an earnings year? Every year's price return from 1928 onward, split into two pieces — change in TTM PE multiple and change in TTM EPS (Shiller basis). Same-sign years with one side dominant are labelled 'multiple-driven' or 'EPS-driven'; balanced same-sign years are 'both'; opposite-sign years are 'fighting'. Stacked bars above, sortable table below. The textbook years — 2008-2009, 2020, 2023-2024 — pop out immediately. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png Every Deep Fall Carries a Name From the 1929 cliff to the 2020 pandemic shock. Dozens of meaningful drawdowns leave their own shape and footnote here. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png Deepest Intrayear Drop vs Year-End Outcome Ninety-nine years: intrayear drawdown averages about 14% — every year carries a stretch that feels like a reason to sell — yet the year-end average still closes positive. Investors who sit through the mismatch between process and outcome are usually compensated by the close. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png The Market's Breathing Rate 20-day and 60-day annualized volatility. Long-term median is around 15%. Readings above 30% typically mark transitional phases in the cycle. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — The Insurance Tab A market-implied measure of 30-day volatility. VIX above 30 means investors are already paying to hedge the next risk event. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png Twelve Months of Seasonality Monthly return colours since 2000. November and April carry the highest win rates; September has the longest history of negative months. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png How the S&P 500 Is Actually Built Eligibility thresholds, weighting methodology, and the governance of constituent changes. The rules determine which companies qualify to represent the U.S. large-cap market. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS Eleven-Sector Weight Distribution Information technology leads by a wide margin; financials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary follow. The sector pie itself reads as a short history of American industry. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · Equal-Weight Index of the Seven Jan 3, 2022 = 100. These seven stocks have driven the bulk of the index's recent advance and sit at the centre of every concentration debate. https://historyofmarket.com/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png A Log of Additions and Deletions The last decade of constituent changes. Each entry captures the rise or decline of a listed company — the mechanism by which the index stays current with the U.S. economy. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png Nasdaq Composite — Half a Century, Start to Now Opened at 100 on 5 February 1971; now above 16,000. The line runs parallel to the rise of American technology. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png Nasdaq Bull/Bear — Log Year-Over-Year Crosses zero more often than the S&P's, and dips deeper when it does. The dot-com unwind of 2000 and the tightening of 2022 are the two deepest negative stretches — the tech index's bull-to-bear transitions are sharper, so the same regime line fires more often. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 1-Week / 1-Month / YTD / 1-Year Return Rankings Toggle in the top right between trailing 1-week, 1-month, year-to-date, and 1-year windows. The short-window leaderboard moves daily; on the 1-year view the dispersion from first place to hundredth is unusually wide — long-run Nasdaq 100 performance is carried by a small group at the top. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png Nasdaq 100 · Forward PE — Twenty-Five Years Bloomberg's "BEst P/E Ratio" — analyst consensus for Nasdaq 100 earnings over the next twelve months — monthly from January 2001 to today. The 2001-2003 stretch looks like a spike because Nasdaq earnings collapsed near zero during the dot-com bust, distorting the denominator and pushing one month to ~199×. Zoom out to 5- or 10-year windows to see today's ~25× against its real reference frame. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revision NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; Bloomberg's monthly forward PE snapshots go back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ Annual Returns Roughly 15% annualized since 1999. The deepest single-year loss came in 2008 at -42%. High return and high volatility travel together. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png Nasdaq 100 Annual Return Distribution Every year since 1986 binned by total return (dividends reinvested) into eleven buckets. Across 41 years the right tail cleared +50% five times and the left tail broke -40% once — a first-hand feel for 'high mean ≠ steady growth'. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png Nasdaq 100 · Pick Entry, Pick Exit The annualized return matrix since 1986. Longer holds pull annualized outcomes toward the long-term mean. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png Nasdaq 100 · Five-Year Rolling Annualized Monthly observations since 1990, each looking back five years. The deepest windows touched -20% annualised — buying the 2000 peak still left you underwater by 2005. The distribution runs wider than the S&P 500's: the best five years go higher, the worst five years go deeper. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ Total Return · Price / Dividend / Buyback Six years of reliable buyback data. Within tech's total return, the buyback component continues to grow. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png Nasdaq 100 · Fifty-Nine Historical Drawdowns Down 83% cumulatively from 2000 to 2002. Still the clearest textbook case of a bubble and its unwind. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png Nasdaq 100 · Deepest Intrayear Drop vs Year-End Outcome Intrayear drawdown averages about 18%, yet 83% of years still close green and the year-end average lands near +18%. Tech's appeal and cost live in that gap — 2000, 2008, and 2022 are the years when the trade didn't pay. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png Nasdaq 100 · 20/60-Day Annualized Volatility Median near 22%, systematically one notch above the S&P 500. Structural high vol isn't a regime change for the tech asset class — it's the baseline. Owning the index means accepting the wider amplitude. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index Launched by CBOE in 2001. A VXN reading above 35 typically signals that technology has entered systemic risk territory. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png Nasdaq 100 Monthly Return Heatmap Since 1985. November and December post the highest monthly win rates; January and September register the most frequent declines. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png Top Holdings & Cumulative Weight Public holding weights cover the largest names; the rest is grouped as Others. The more concentrated the index, the more its performance rides on a few leaders. https://historyofmarket.com/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png Nasdaq 100 · Constituents and Weight Distribution The weight gap between the largest holdings and the rest of the roster is unusually wide. The more concentrated the index, the more its performance depends on a handful of leaders. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png Three decades of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Daily closes since May 1994, with the drawdown ribbon beneath. The chart spans two crashes (2000, 2008), two mid-cycle drawdowns (2018, 2022) and the AI-era bull — the highest-amplitude industry in U.S. equities on a single canvas. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png The semi sector's year-by-year ledger Year-end print for every year since 1995. Average return runs well above the S&P, but every few years a near-halving year prints — 'high mean ≠ steady growth' is most extreme here. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png Thirty years of annual returns, binned Every year placed into one of 11 buckets. The right tail past +50% is populated more than once; the left tail past -40% is too. This is the fat-tailed shape of semis, not a tidy bell curve. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png Every year, the dip comes first Average intrayear drawdown runs roughly a notch deeper than the S&P (~−20% vs −14%). Even up years routinely include a double-digit mid-year drop — the cost of the sector's native volatility. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png What's actually inside SOX Thirty names grouped by sub-industry: fabless logic, foundry, memory, equipment, analog, RF, and the lone IDM. Foreign names are flagged by country code — semis are not a purely American sector. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png What SMH actually owns, and at what weight SMH tracks the MVIS US 25 Index — 25 names total. Yahoo exposes live weights for the top ~10 (about 70% of the ETF); the remaining 15 are listed with sub-sector tags but marked 'n/a' on weight. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png The cycle king — and only one of them survives in SOX Memory is the highest-amplitude semi sub-industry. MU is the only pure-play in SOX; Samsung and SK Hynix trade on KOSPI. Buying SMH leaves you ~60% short of global memory market cap. The AI HBM boom is split among these three. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png Who's leading, who's lagging Three rebased ratios, indexed to 100 at year-end 1999. Semis vs the broad market, semis vs the broader tech sector, and tech vs the broad market. Click any legend entry to toggle a line; zoom in to read each leadership regime. https://historyofmarket.com/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png How far are memory & HBM from 1999 MU and NVDA's TTM PE from 2022 to today, with horizontal reference bands marking the 1999-2000 dotcom-peak forward PE prints (CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×). The cards below add today's snapshot for Samsung and SK Hynix — the true HBM protagonists — but their reporting cadence and accounting basis differ, so they appear as today's numbers only. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png XLK's twenty-seven-year arc Listed December 1998, just before the dotcom peak. The curve contains a -83% collapse through 2002, a -50% GFC drawdown, a -34% 2022 print, and the AI-era recovery that followed. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png XLK's year-by-year ledger Complete years since 1999. The 1999 print of +75% sits at the extreme right tail; 2008's -42% at the extreme left. 2023-2024 stacked two AI-driven up-years in a row. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png Twenty-seven years of annual returns, binned Mean is similar to semis, but the variance is a notch tighter — software, IT services, and payments-tech inside XLK damp the pure-hardware cycle. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png Twenty-seven years of intrayear depth Average intrayear drawdown ~-16%, between the S&P and the semis. But 2000, 2008 and 2022 each posted intrayear drops past -30%. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png XLK's top holdings AAPL + MSFT + NVDA already combine for more than 50% of the ETF — XLK is the most concentrated sector ETF in U.S. equities. Yahoo exposes the top 10 (~60% of the fund); the ~60-name tail sits below this view. https://historyofmarket.com/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png September 2018: a fifth of XLK swapped out in one day S&P and MSCI moved GOOGL, META, NFLX and others out of Information Technology into the newly formed Communication Services sector. XLK's long curve crosses this date, but the internal composition shifted meaningfully — read the chart with this seam in mind. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png XLF's twenty-seven-year arc Listed December 1998, same vintage as XLK. The deepest mark on this curve is 2008 — a cumulative -84% drawdown, the deepest in the sector's entire modern history. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png XLF's year-by-year ledger Twenty-seven complete years. 2008 alone took -55%; 2009's +17% bounce was nowhere near enough to recover. 2023's regional-bank scare printed -16% intrayear before closing positive. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png Twenty-seven years of annual returns, binned Mean slightly below the S&P, but the left tail is extreme — the signature of a 'crisis sector': most years tick gently upward, but when something breaks, it's industry-wide. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png Financials' intrayear depth Average intrayear drawdown is close to the S&P's, but 2008, 2009, 2020 and 2023 all concentrated their volatility in this sector. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008, the plague year of US Financials Five top financial institutions disappeared in that single year — Bear, Lehman, Wamu, Wachovia, AIG. Five others survived, and most expanded by absorbing the fallen. This is the true narrative core of this ETF. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png The yield-curve × XLF causal chain Top: the 2y-10y Treasury spread from 1976 to today; the shaded bands are 'inversions'. Bottom: XLF's trailing 12-month return. Banks earn the spread — the curve moves first, the sector follows, typically with a 3-9 month lag. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png March 2023: Visa and Mastercard became financial stocks overnight S&P and MSCI reclassified payments-tech — V, MA, PYPL and others — from Information Technology into Financial Services. XLF picked up ~12% of new weight in a single day. Reading XLF's long curve, this 2023 seam is the second one to step around. https://historyofmarket.com/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png XLF's top holdings BRK.B + JPM together ~23%; V + MA together ~13%. Calling BRK.B a 'financial' is a stretch — but GICS classifies it that way, and XLF follows. https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png Magnificent 7 Equal-Weight Index Indexed to 2022-01-03 = 100; seven members, equal weight, no dividends. The question this chart answers: 'if you'd bought all seven equally at the start of 2022, where would you be today — and how big is the gap between members?' https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png Seven companies, a third of US equities From 13% in 2018 to over 33% at year-end 2024 — these seven stocks hold a third of the S&P 500's market cap. Since the 1970s Nifty Fifty, no comparable single group has held this much weight. Each quarterly point carries its own note. https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png Each member's drawdown trajectory Daily peak-to-date drawdown for each of the seven names since 2018, on the same canvas. MSFT has stayed steadiest throughout; TSLA has the widest amplitude; META fell -77% in 2022 and then doubled in 14 months. https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png Are the seven becoming a single trade? Top: a heatmap of the pairwise correlation matrix over the trailing 60 trading days. Bottom: the average off-diagonal correlation rolling daily over the last 5 years. The closer to 1, the more 'the seven' behave like 'the one'. This is the chart that answers what's left of diversification inside M7. https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png How far is today's NVDA from 1999's Cisco? NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL trailing-twelve-month PE since 2022, with horizontal reference bands marking the 1999-2000 dotcom-peak forward PE prints (CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×, SUNW 120×, MSFT 60×, INTC 50×). This chart answers the AI-bubble question head-on — measure today's NVDA against the Cisco line at 140×. https://historyofmarket.com/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.8 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png The Magnificent 7's ancestors M7 didn't appear from nowhere. Nifty Fifty (1972) → Four Horsemen (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023) — each generation had its 'unbeatable' run and at least one -40% drawdown. The lineage: https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 近一个世纪的年度涨跌 1928 年以来，每一根柱子都是一次年末结账——绿柱是盈利年，红柱是亏损年。图下方动态统计盈 / 亏 / 持平年数与历史最佳、最差。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 市值 · 一年回报 · 指数权重 横轴是市值，纵轴是过去 12 个月的回报，气泡大小代表该公司在指数中的权重。全部五百家一屏之内。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年度回报的真实长相 把 1928 年以来每一年按总回报（含股息）装进 11 个区间 · 平均 10% 只是均值，真实年份极少落在均值附近 · 训练对「市场回报的肥尾分布」的直觉。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 任选买入年份与卖出年份 对角线以下每一格，代表一次假设的持有。持有期越长，年化回报越向长期均值收敛。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 五年之后，年化回报通常是多少 1928 年以来每一个五年滚动窗口的年化收益。负回报的窗口不足一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 总回报 = 价格 + 股息 + 回购 1999 年以来。三项叠起来，才是投资者实际到手的年度收益。回购的份额已经超过股息，成为回报的第二支柱。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 十四次穿越零线 对数同比下，正值代表牛市、负值代表熊市。1928 年以来共 14 次穿越零线，每一次都是市场周期的换挡。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png 标普 500 · TTM 市盈率与动态 PE 两条线放在同一坐标里：TTM 是已经发生的盈利，由 500 只成分股加权日更，10 年前的部分用 multpl 月度数据填补；动态 PE 用的是 Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——分析师一致预期的未来 12 个月盈利，1990 年至今的季度末读数加最新一笔，自带季频节奏。两者之差就是市场对未来盈利方向的押注。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png 席勒 CAPE · 周期平滑后的市盈率 以十年平均通胀调整盈利为分母，把经济周期的噪音平滑掉。历史均值约 17 倍；今天的水平，已经贴近一个世纪以来的上沿。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 美国居民的股票配置比例 股票市值 ÷（股票 + 债券 + 现金）。作为未来十年回报的预测变量，AIAE 的解释力比 CAPE 略胜一筹。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png 标普 500 · 每股收益（TTM） 滚动 12 个月口径。利润是估值分子的来源，也是长期股价的地基。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png 标普 500 · 净资产收益率 每一美元股东权益产生的年化利润。过去二十年稳定在 15% 上下——指数盈利能力的底线所在。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png 每一年是估值年还是盈利年 把 1928 年起每一年的价格回报拆成两块——PE 倍数变化和 TTM EPS 增长(希勒口径)。同号且某一项更大的标「估值驱动」或「EPS 驱动」,同号且接近的标「双轮驱动」,反号的标「对抗」。上方是堆叠条形图,下方是可排序的明细表。2008-2009、2020、2023-2024 这些教科书年份能直接读出来。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 每一次深跌都有名字 从 1929 年的断崖，到 2020 年的疫情冲击。数十次大幅回撤在这里各自留下形状与注脚。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 九十九年里，年内平均回撤约 14%——每一年都有一段让人想离场的区间；但到了年末，平均值仍然是正的。能穿越这种「过程与结果的错位」的投资者，最后通常得到了补偿。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 市场的呼吸频率 20 日与 60 日年化波动率。长期中位约 15%。历史上每次突破 30%，背后几乎都有一轮阶段性转折。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保险费的账本 衡量市场对未来 30 天的波动预期。VIX 冲破 30，意味着投资者已经在为下一轮风险付保费。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 一年十二个月的季节性 2000 年以来，每一个月的涨跌记录。11 月与 4 月的上涨概率最高，9 月历来最容易见红。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png 标普 500 是如何「编」出来的 入选门槛、权重方法、成分变更的治理流程。规则决定了哪些公司有资格代表美国大盘。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 十一大行业的权重分布 信息科技遥遥领先；金融、医疗、可选消费依次位列其后。这张行业饼图，本身就是美国产业结构的一张快照。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 七大科技股的等权指数 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。这七只股票贡献了近年指数涨幅的主要部分，也是所有「集中度」讨论的起点。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 调入与调出的历史 近十年的成分变更记录。每一笔增删背后，都是一家上市公司的兴衰。指数借此保持与美国经济的节拍一致。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 纳斯达克综指 · 半个世纪的长跑 1971 年 2 月 5 日以 100 点起步，今天已逾 16,000 点。这条曲线，与美国科技产业同步生长。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 纳指牛熊 · 对数同比视角 穿越零线的频率比标普更高，也穿得更深。2000 年互联网泡沫与 2022 年紧缩是最深的两段负区间——科技资产的牛熊切换比大盘更剧烈，同样一条警戒线会响更多次。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 成分股 1 周 / 1 月 / 年内 / 1 年涨跌排名 右上角在近 1 周、近 1 月、年初至今与近 1 年四个窗口之间切换。短期榜单每天都在动；拉到 1 年这个尺度，从第一到第一百的分散度极大——长期看，纳指 100 的大部分收益由头部少数几只推动。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png 纳指 100 · 动态市盈率（25 年） Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——分析师对纳指 100 未来 12 个月盈利的一致预期，月频，从 2001 年 1 月到今天。曲线在 2001-2003 年那一段看起来像一根尖刺：那是科技股盈利在网络泡沫破裂里塌到接近零，分母小到分式失真，最高一个月飙到 198 倍。把镜头往后拉到 5 年、10 年，今天的 25 倍才落进它真正的参考系里。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png 纳指 100 · rerating 与 revision 纳指没有干净的历史 TTM PE 数据,但 Bloomberg 的远期 PE 月度快照可追溯到 2001 年。所以这张表用「远期 PE 倍数变化 + 远期 EPS 修正」做拆分:倍数动了多少 = 市场对明年盈利的定价偏好变了多少;EPS 动了多少 = 分析师对明年 EPS 估计上调或下调了多少。注意这是远期口径,与标普 500 的 TTM 表口径不同——读法是「市场情绪 + 一致预期修正」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年度回报 1999 年以来，年化平均约 15%；最深的单年回撤是 2008 年的 -42%。高收益与高波动，总是一起出现。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 纳指 100 年度回报分布 把 1986 年以来每一年按总回报（含股息）装进 11 个区间 · 41 年样本里右尾超 +50% 有 5 次、左尾低于 -40% 有 1 次 · 感受「高均值 ≠ 稳增长」的肥尾形状。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 纳指 100 · 任选买入与卖出年份 1986 年以来的年化矩阵。持有期越长，年化回报越靠近长期均值。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 纳指 100 · 五年滚动年化收益 1990 年起月频数据，每点回望 5 年。最深的窗口曾触及 -20%——2000 年顶部买入、持有到 2005 年仍然亏损。分布比标普 500 更宽：好的 5 年更好，差的 5 年更深。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 总回报 · 价格 / 股息 / 回购 近六年有可靠的回购口径数据。对科技股而言，回购在总回报中的份额仍在上升。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 纳指 100 · 五十九次历史回撤 2000–2002 年累计下跌 83%，至今仍是金融史上最典型的泡沫破灭案例。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 纳指 100 · 年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 平均年内回撤约 18%，83% 的年份年末仍收正，平均收 +18%——魅力与代价藏在这两个数字的落差里。2000、2008、2022 是这套机制偶尔失灵的年份。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 纳指 100 · 20/60 日年化波动率 中位数约 22%，系统性高出标普 500 一档。结构性高波动不是例外，是这个资产类别的基准——配置纳指，必须接受这个更大的振幅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 纳指 100 的波动率指数 CBOE 2001 年推出的恐慌指数。VXN 突破 35 时，往往意味着科技股已经进入系统性风险阶段。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 纳指 100 月度回报热力图 1985 年以来。11 月与 12 月的上涨概率最高，1 月与 9 月则最容易见红。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 头部持仓与累计权重 公开权重覆盖头部持仓，其余部分单独归为「其他」。集中度越高，指数表现越依赖少数龙头。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 纳指 100 · 成分股与权重分布 头部持仓与其余成分之间的权重落差极大。集中度越高，指数表现越取决于头部少数公司。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png 费城半导体的三十年弧 1994 年 5 月以来的每日收盘 + 距高点回撤。半导体一路走过两次崩溃（2000、2008）、两次中级回撤（2018、2022）和一次 AI 大牛市。这条曲线把振幅最大的一个行业铺在一张图上。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png 半导体的年度涨跌簿 1995 年以来每一年的收尾数字。半导体行业的均值远高于大盘，但每隔几年就有一次接近腰斩的年份——「均值高 ≠ 平稳成长」在半导体身上尤其极端。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png 三十年的年度回报分布 把每一年装进 11 个区间。右尾 +50% 以上的年份不止一个，左尾 -40% 以下的年份也不止一个——这是肥尾分布的真实长相，而不是均值附近的钟形。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png 每一年都要先跌一截 半导体的年内回撤均值比标普深一档（约 -20% vs -14%）。即使是收红的年份，年中也常常先经历一次两位数下跌——这是行业本征波动的代价。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png SOX 里都装了什么 30 只成分股,按子行业分桶:Fabless 设计、晶圆代工、存储、设备、模拟、射频、IDM。海外公司用国家代码标出——读者要知道,这不是一个纯美国行业。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png SMH 的实际持仓与权重 SMH 跟踪 MVIS US 25 指数,25 只成分。Yahoo 实时披露头部约 10 只的权重（覆盖 ETF 约 70%）;尾部 15 只我们列出代码与子行业,但权重栏标为「未披露」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png 周期最猛的一档,SOX 里只剩一家 存储是半导体里振幅最大的子行业。SOX 唯一的纯存储股是 MU;Samsung 和 SK 海力士在 KOSPI,买 SMH 等于在全球存储里欠配 60%。AI 的 HBM 红利由这三家瓜分。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png 谁在领涨,谁在落后 三条曲线,1999 年底 = 100。半导体相对标普的领先,半导体相对科技板块的领先,科技板块相对标普的领先。点击图例切换显隐;放大某一段就能看清每一轮领涨的起止。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png 存储/HBM 与 1999 的距离 MU 与 NVDA 的 TTM PE 自 2022 年画到今天,横向虚线参考带是 1999-2000 网络泡沫五巨头的远期 PE 峰值(CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×)。下方卡片附 Samsung 与 SK Hynix 的当前估值快照——它们是 HBM 链的真正主角,但报表口径与美股不同,只显示当前数。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png XLK 的二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上市,正好赶上 dot-com 泡沫顶端。这条曲线包含了 -83% 的 2000-2002 崩溃、-50% 的 GFC、-34% 的 2022,以及紧接着的 AI 牛市。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png XLK 的年度涨跌簿 1999 年以来的完整年份。1999 是 +75% 的极端右尾,2008 是 -42% 的极端左尾;2023-2024 在 AI 拉动下连续两年高位翻倍。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png 二十七年的年度回报分布 信息科技整体的均值与半导体接近,但波动小一档——因为 XLK 里软件、IT 服务、支付科技拉低了纯硬件的周期性。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png 二十七年的年内深度 XLK 的年内回撤均值约 -16%,介于标普和半导体之间。但 2000、2008、2022 三次年内回撤都达到 -30% 以上。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png XLK 的头部持仓 AAPL + MSFT + NVDA 前三大合计权重已超过 50%——XLK 是美股最集中的行业 ETF。Yahoo 披露前 10 持仓,占 ETF 约 60%,其余尾部约 60 只在此视图下方。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png 2018 年 9 月,XLK 一次性换了五分之一 S&P / MSCI 把 GOOGL、META、NFLX 等从信息科技搬出,迁入新成立的「通讯服务」行业。XLK 的长曲线跨越这一天,但成分内核被换过一遍——读这条曲线时需要绕开这个口径裂缝。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png XLF 的二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上市,与 XLK 同 vintage。这条曲线最深的一道刻痕是 2008 — 全行业累计下跌 -84%,是这个行业整个现代史上最深的一次回撤。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png XLF 的年度涨跌簿 二十七个完整年份。2008 一年砍掉 -55%,2009 反弹 +17% 远不够补;2023 区域银行风波年内一度跌 -16% 又收正。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png 二十七年的年度回报分布 金融板块的均值比 SPX 略低,但左尾极端深——这是「危机行业」的特征:绝大多数年份温和上涨,但一旦出事就是全行业级别的事故。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png 金融板块的年内深度 金融的年内回撤均值与 SPX 接近,但 2008、2009、2020、2023 这几年的剧烈震荡都集中在这个板块。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008,金融行业的瘟疫年 五家头部金融机构在那一年彻底消失:Bear、Lehman、Wamu、Wachovia、AIG。剩下五家挺过来,并通过吞并失败者扩张了版图。这是这个 ETF 真正的「叙事核心」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png 收益率曲线 × XLF 的因果链 上方:2 年 / 10 年国债利差,1976 年至今,负值区域是「曲线倒挂」。下方:XLF 滚动 12 个月回报。银行赚的是利差,曲线先动,板块后动——通常滞后 3-9 个月。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png 2023 年 3 月:Visa 和 Mastercard 一夜变成金融股 S&P 和 MSCI 把支付科技 V/MA/PYPL 等从信息科技重新归到金融服务。XLF 一夜多了 ~12% 的新权重——读 XLF 长曲线时,2023 年这一刀也要绕开。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png XLF 的头部持仓 BRK.B + JPM 合计 ~23%,V + MA 合计 ~13%。BRK.B 是一家「金融」公司有些勉强——但 GICS 这么分,XLF 就跟着分。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png Magnificent 7 等权指数 2022-01-03 = 100,七只成分股不复权等权平均。这张图答的是「如果你 2022 年初等权买入这七家,持有到今天会怎样」——以及七只之间的分化有多大。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png 七家公司,美股市场的三分之一 从 2018 年 13% 到 2024 年底超过 33%——七只成分股占据了 S&P 500 总市值的三分之一,这是 1970 年代「Nifty Fifty」之后,美股头部集中度的最高水平。每一个季度数据点都附带当季备注。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png 七只成分股的回撤轨迹 把每只成分股的每日回撤(距自身各自高点)画在一张图上,从 2018 年起。MSFT 一直最稳;TSLA 振幅最大;META 在 2022 年跌 -77% 然后用了 14 个月翻倍。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png 七只是不是已经成为「一笔交易」 上方是过去 60 个交易日七只成分股两两相关系数的热力图。下方曲线是过去 5 年里这个矩阵的平均非对角相关系数——越接近 1,「七只」就越像「一只」。这是回答「分散化在 M7 里还剩多少」的关键图。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png 今天的 NVDA,离 1999 的 Cisco 有多远 NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL 自 2022 年的 TTM PE 曲线,横向虚线是 1999-2000 网络泡沫五巨头的远期 PE 峰值(CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×、SUNW 120×、MSFT 60×、INTC 50×)。这张图正面回答「AI 牛市是不是 1999 重演」——把 NVDA 现价的倍数往那条 140× 的 Cisco 线上比一下。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-cn/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png Magnificent 7 的祖辈们 M7 不是凭空出现的。Nifty Fifty (1972) → 四骑士 (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023)——每一代都有「不可超越」的崛起,和至少一次 -40% 的回撤。下面是这条传承链。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 九十九年的年度漲跌 自 1928 年起的完整年度報酬紀錄：73 個獲利年、26 個虧損年。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 市值 · 一年報酬 · 指數權重 橫軸是市值,縱軸是過去 12 個月的報酬,氣泡大小代表該公司在指數中的權重。全部五百家一屏之內。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年度報酬的真實樣貌 把 1928 年以來每一年按總回報（含股息）裝進 11 個區間 · 平均 10% 只是均值，真實年份極少落在均值附近 · 訓練對「市場回報的肥尾分佈」的直覺。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 任選買進年份與賣出年份 對角線以下每一格，代表一次假設的持有。持有期越長,年化報酬越向長期均值收斂。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 五年之後,年化報酬通常是多少 1928 年以來每一個五年滾動視窗的年化報酬。負報酬的視窗不到一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 總報酬 = 價格 + 股息 + 回購 1999 年以來。三項疊起來,才是投資者實際到手的年度收益。回購的份額已經超過股息,成為報酬的第二支柱。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 十四次穿越零線 對數年增率之下,正值代表牛市、負值代表熊市。1928 年以來共 14 次穿越零線,每一次都是市場週期的換檔。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png 標普 500 · TTM 本益比與動態本益比 兩條線放在同一座標:TTM 是已發生的盈利,由 500 檔成分股加權日更,10 年前的部分以 multpl 月度資料補齊;動態本益比則來自 Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——分析師對未來 12 個月盈利的一致預期,1990 年至今的季度末讀數加最新一筆,本就是季頻。兩者之差,是市場對未來盈利方向的押注。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png 席勒 CAPE · 週期平滑後的本益比 以十年平均通膨調整盈餘為分母,把經濟週期的噪音平滑掉。歷史均值約 17 倍；今日的水平,已經貼近一個世紀以來的上緣。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 美國居民的股票配置比例 股票市值 ÷（股票 + 債券 + 現金）。作為未來十年報酬的預測變數,AIAE 的解釋力比 CAPE 略勝一籌。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png 標普 500 · 每股盈餘（TTM） 滾動 12 個月口徑。盈餘是估值分子的來源,也是長期股價的地基。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png 標普 500 · 股東權益報酬率 每一美元股東權益產生的年化盈餘。過去二十年穩定在 15% 上下——指數獲利能力的底線所在。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png 每一年是估值年還是盈利年 把 1928 年起每一年的價格報酬拆成兩塊——TTM PE 倍數變化與 TTM EPS 變化（席勒口徑）。同號且某一項較大的標「估值驅動」或「EPS 驅動」，同號且接近的標「雙輪驅動」，反號的標「對抗」。上方是堆疊柱狀圖，下方是可排序的明細表。2008-2009、2020、2023-2024 這些教科書年份能立即讀出來。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 每一次深跌都有名字 從 1929 年的斷崖,到 2020 年的疫情衝擊。數十次大幅回檔在此各自留下形狀與註腳。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年內最深跌幅 vs 全年漲跌 九十九年裡,年內平均回檔約 14%；但到了年末,平均值仍然是正的。能穿越中段波動的投資者,最後通常得到了補償。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 市場的呼吸頻率 20 日與 60 日年化波動率。長期中位約 15%。歷史上每次突破 30%,背後幾乎都有一輪階段性轉折。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保險費的帳本 衡量市場對未來 30 天的波動預期。VIX 衝破 30,意味著投資者已經在為下一輪風險付保費。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 一年十二個月的季節性 2000 年以來,每一個月的漲跌紀錄。11 月與 4 月的上漲機率最高,9 月向來最容易見紅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png 標普 500 是如何「編」出來的 入選門檻、權重方法、成分變更的治理流程。規則決定了哪些公司有資格代表美國大型股。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 十一大產業的權重分佈 資訊科技遙遙領先；金融、醫療、非必需消費依次位列其後。這張產業餅圖,本身就是美國產業結構的一張快照。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 七大科技股的等權指數 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。這七檔股票貢獻了近年指數漲幅的主要部分,也是所有「集中度」討論的起點。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 納入與剔除的歷史 近十年的成分變更紀錄。每一筆增刪背後,都是一家上市公司的興衰。指數藉此保持與美國經濟的節拍一致。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 納斯達克綜合 · 半個世紀的長跑 1971 年 2 月 5 日以 100 點起步,今天已逾 16,000 點。這條曲線,與美國科技產業同步生長。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 納指牛熊 · 對數年增視角 正負交替。2000 年網路泡沫與 2022 年緊縮,是這條時間軸上兩段最深的負區間。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 成分股 1 週 / 1 月 / 年初至今 / 1 年漲跌排名 右上角在近 1 週、近 1 月、年初至今與近 1 年四個窗口之間切換。短期榜單每天都在動；拉到 1 年這個尺度,從第一到第一百的分散度極大——長期看,納指 100 的大部分收益由頭部少數幾檔推動。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png 納指 100 · 動態本益比（25 年） Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——分析師對納指 100 未來 12 個月盈利的一致預期,月頻,從 2001 年 1 月到今天。曲線在 2001-2003 年看起來像一根尖刺:那是科技股盈利在網路泡沫破裂裡塌到接近零,分母小到分式失真,最高一個月飆到 198 倍。把鏡頭拉到 5 年、10 年,今天的 25 倍才落進它真正的參考系。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png 納指 100 · rerating 與 revision 納指沒有乾淨的歷史 TTM PE 數據，但 Bloomberg 的動態 PE 月度快照可追溯到 2001 年。所以這張表用「動態 PE 倍數變化 + 動態 EPS 修正」做拆解：倍數動了多少 = 市場對明年盈利的定價偏好變了多少；EPS 動了多少 = 分析師對明年 EPS 估計上調或下調了多少。注意這是動態口徑，與標普 500 的 TTM 表口徑不同——讀法是「市場情緒 + 一致預期修正」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年度報酬 1999 年以來,年化平均約 15%；最深的單年回檔是 2008 年的 -42%。高報酬與高波動,總是一起出現。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 納指 100 年度報酬分佈 把 1986 年以來每一年按總回報（含股息）裝進 11 個區間 · 41 年樣本裡右尾超 +50% 有 5 次、左尾低於 -40% 有 1 次 · 感受「高均值 ≠ 穩增長」的肥尾形狀。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 納指 100 · 任選買進與賣出年份 1986 年以來的年化矩陣。持有期越長,年化報酬越靠近長期均值。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 納指 100 · 五年滾動年化報酬 1990 年起月頻數據,每個觀測點回看 5 年。負報酬視窗約佔全部樣本的一成。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 總報酬 · 價格 / 股息 / 回購 近六年有可靠的回購口徑資料。對科技股而言,回購在總報酬中的份額仍在上升。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 納指 100 · 五十九次歷史回檔 2000–2002 年累計下跌 83%,至今仍是金融史上最典型的泡沫破滅案例。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 納指 100 · 年內最深跌幅 vs 全年漲跌 平均年內回檔約 18%,但年末平均仍收 +18%。科技股的魅力與代價,就藏在這兩個數字的落差裡。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 納指 100 · 20/60 日年化波動率 中位數約 22%,系統性高出標普 500 一檔。對科技產業來說,高波動是常態,不是例外。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 納指 100 的波動率指數 CBOE 2001 年推出的恐慌指數。VXN 突破 35 時,往往意味著科技股已經進入系統性風險階段。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 納指 100 月度報酬熱力圖 1985 年以來。11 月與 12 月的上漲機率最高,1 月與 9 月則最容易見紅。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 頭部持股與累計權重 公開權重覆蓋頭部持股，其餘部分單獨歸為「其他」。集中度越高，指數表現越依賴少數龍頭。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 納指 100 · 成分股與權重分佈 頭部持股與其餘成分之間的權重落差極大。集中度越高,指數表現越取決於頭部少數公司。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png 費城半導體的三十年弧 1994 年 5 月以來的每日收盤 + 距高點回檔。半導體一路走過兩次崩潰（2000、2008）、兩次中級回檔（2018、2022）和一次 AI 大牛市。這條曲線把振幅最大的一個行業舖在一張圖上。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png 半導體的年度漲跌簿 1995 年以來每一年的收尾數字。半導體行業的均值遠高於大盤，但每隔幾年就有一次接近腰斬的年份——「均值高 ≠ 平穩成長」在半導體身上尤其極端。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png 三十年的年度報酬分佈 把每一年裝進 11 個區間。右尾 +50% 以上的年份不止一個，左尾 -40% 以下的年份也不止一個——這是肥尾分佈的真實長相，不是均值附近的鐘形。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png 每一年都要先跌一截 半導體的年內回檔均值比標普深一檔（約 -20% vs -14%）。即使是收紅的年份，年中也常常先經歷一次兩位數下跌——這是產業本徵波動的代價。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png SOX 裡都裝了什麼 30 檔成分股，按子產業分桶：Fabless 設計、晶圓代工、記憶體、設備、類比、射頻、IDM。海外公司用國家代碼標出——讀者要知道，這不是一個純美國的產業。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png SMH 的實際持股與權重 SMH 追蹤 MVIS US 25 指數，25 檔成分。Yahoo 即時揭露頭部約 10 檔的權重（覆蓋 ETF 約 70%）；尾部 15 檔我們列出代號與子產業，但權重欄標為「未揭露」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png 週期最猛的一檔，SOX 裡只剩一家 記憶體是半導體裡振幅最大的子產業。SOX 唯一的純記憶體股是 MU；Samsung 與 SK 海力士在 KOSPI，買 SMH 等於在全球記憶體裡欠配 60%。AI 的 HBM 紅利由這三家瓜分。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png 誰在領漲，誰在落後 三條曲線，1999 年底 = 100。半導體相對標普的領先，半導體相對科技板塊的領先，科技板塊相對標普的領先。點擊圖例切換顯隱；放大某一段就能看清每一輪領漲的起止。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png 記憶體 / HBM 與 1999 的距離 MU 與 NVDA 的 TTM PE 自 2022 年畫到今天，橫向虛線參考帶是 1999-2000 網路泡沫五巨頭的動態 PE 高點（CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×）。下方卡片附 Samsung 與 SK Hynix 的當前估值快照——它們是 HBM 鏈的真正主角，但報表口徑與美股不同，只顯示當前數。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png XLK 的二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上市，正好趕上 dot-com 泡沫頂端。這條曲線包含了 -83% 的 2000-2002 崩潰、-50% 的 GFC、-34% 的 2022，以及緊接著的 AI 牛市。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png XLK 的年度漲跌簿 1999 年以來的完整年份。1999 是 +75% 的極端右尾，2008 是 -42% 的極端左尾；2023-2024 在 AI 拉動下連續兩年高位翻倍。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png 二十七年的年度報酬分佈 資訊科技整體的均值與半導體接近，但波動小一檔——因為 XLK 裡軟體、IT 服務、支付科技拉低了純硬體的週期性。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png 二十七年的年內深度 XLK 的年內回檔均值約 -16%，介於標普和半導體之間。但 2000、2008、2022 三次年內回檔都達到 -30% 以上。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png XLK 的頭部持股 AAPL + MSFT + NVDA 前三大合計權重已超過 50%——XLK 是美股最集中的產業 ETF。Yahoo 揭露前 10 大持股，佔 ETF 約 60%，其餘尾部約 60 檔在此視圖下方。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png 2018 年 9 月，XLK 一次性換了五分之一 S&P / MSCI 把 GOOGL、META、NFLX 等從資訊科技搬出，遷入新成立的「通訊服務」產業。XLK 的長曲線跨越這一天，但成分內核被換過一遍——讀這條曲線時需要繞開這個口徑裂縫。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png XLF 的二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上市，與 XLK 同 vintage。這條曲線最深的一道刻痕是 2008——全行業累計下跌 -84%，是這個行業整個現代史上最深的一次回檔。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png XLF 的年度漲跌簿 二十七個完整年份。2008 一年砍掉 -55%，2009 反彈 +17% 遠不夠補；2023 區域銀行風波年內一度跌 -16% 又收正。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png 二十七年的年度報酬分佈 金融板塊的均值比 SPX 略低，但左尾極端深——這是「危機行業」的特徵：絕大多數年份溫和上漲，但一旦出事就是全行業級別的事故。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png 金融板塊的年內深度 金融的年內回檔均值與 SPX 接近，但 2008、2009、2020、2023 這幾年的劇烈震盪都集中在這個板塊。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008，金融行業的瘟疫年 五家頭部金融機構在那一年徹底消失：Bear、Lehman、Wamu、Wachovia、AIG。剩下五家挺過來，並透過併購失敗者擴張了版圖。這是這個 ETF 真正的「敘事核心」。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png 殖利率曲線 × XLF 的因果鏈 上方：2 年 / 10 年公債利差，1976 年至今，負值區域是「曲線倒掛」。下方：XLF 滾動 12 個月報酬。銀行賺的是利差，曲線先動，板塊後動——通常滯後 3-9 個月。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png 2023 年 3 月：Visa 和 Mastercard 一夜變成金融股 S&P 和 MSCI 把支付科技 V / MA / PYPL 等從資訊科技重新歸到金融服務。XLF 一夜多了 ~12% 的新權重——讀 XLF 長曲線時，2023 年這一刀也要繞開。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png XLF 的頭部持股 BRK.B + JPM 合計 ~23%，V + MA 合計 ~13%。BRK.B 是一家「金融」公司有些勉強——但 GICS 這麼分，XLF 就跟著分。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png Magnificent 7 等權指數 2022-01-03 = 100，七檔成分股不復權等權平均。這張圖回答的是「如果你 2022 年初等權買入這七家，持有到今天會怎樣」——以及七檔之間的分化有多大。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png 七家公司，美股市場的三分之一 從 2018 年 13% 到 2024 年底超過 33%——七檔成分股佔據了 S&P 500 總市值的三分之一，這是 1970 年代「Nifty Fifty」之後，美股頭部集中度的最高水平。每一個季度資料點都附帶當季備註。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png 七檔成分股的回檔軌跡 把每檔成分股的每日回檔（距自身各自高點）畫在一張圖上，從 2018 年起。MSFT 一直最穩；TSLA 振幅最大；META 在 2022 年跌 -77% 然後用了 14 個月翻倍。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png 七檔是不是已經成為「一筆交易」 上方是過去 60 個交易日七檔成分股兩兩相關係數的熱力圖。下方曲線是過去 5 年裡這個矩陣的平均非對角相關係數——越接近 1，「七檔」就越像「一檔」。這是回答「分散化在 M7 裡還剩多少」的關鍵圖。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png 今天的 NVDA，離 1999 的 Cisco 有多遠 NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL 自 2022 年的 TTM PE 曲線，橫向虛線是 1999-2000 網路泡沫五巨頭的動態 PE 高點（CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×、SUNW 120×、MSFT 60×、INTC 50×）。這張圖正面回答「AI 牛市是不是 1999 重演」——把 NVDA 現價的倍數往那條 140× 的 Cisco 線上比一下。 https://historyofmarket.com/zh-tw/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png Magnificent 7 的祖輩們 M7 不是憑空出現的。Nifty Fifty (1972) → 四騎士 (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023)——每一代都有「不可超越」的崛起，和至少一次 -40% 的回檔。下面是這條傳承鏈。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 99 年間の年次成績 1928 年以降のすべての年次リターン記録。プラス 73 年、マイナス 26 年。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 時価総額 · 1 年リターン · 指数ウェイト 横軸は時価総額、縦軸は過去 12 か月のリターン、バブルの大きさは指数ウェイト。全 500 社を 1 画面で。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 年間リターンの実像 1928 年以降のすべての年をトータルリターン（配当再投資）で 11 区間に振り分け。「平均 10%」はあくまで平均値で、実際の年はほとんど平均付近に落ちない。市場リターンの「ファットテール分布」に対する直感を鍛える。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 購入年と売却年を自由に選ぶ 対角線より下の各セルが仮想保有一回分。保有期間が長いほど年率リターンは長期平均へと収束していく。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 5 年後の、典型的な年率リターン 1928 年以降のあらゆる 5 年間。マイナスに終わった窓は全体の 1 割にも満たない。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 総リターン = 価格 + 配当 + 自社株買い 1999 年以降。この三つを足して、ようやく投資家の実効年利。自社株買いは配当を超え、リターンの第二の柱となった。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png ゼロラインを横切った 14 回 対数前年比では、プラスが強気、マイナスが弱気。1928 年以降の交差は 14 回。そのたびに市場はギアを入れ替えてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png S&P500 · 実績 PER と 予想 PER 同じ軸に二本の線を置く。実績は 500 銘柄の時価加重 Σ(w·P)/Σ(w·実績 EPS) を日次で計算し、それ以前は multpl の月次データで埋める。予想は Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——アナリストの 12 か月先コンセンサスを使う。1990 年以降の四半期末点と最新読値、もともと四半期ベースだ。二本のあいだの差が、市場が織り込む将来の利益方向への賭けである。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png シラー CAPE · 景気平滑後の PER 10 年平均のインフレ調整後 EPS を分母にし、景気サイクルのノイズを除いた PER。歴史平均は約 17 倍。現在の水準は 1 世紀の上限付近。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 米国家計の株式配分比率 株式時価 ÷（株式 + 債券 + 現金）。10 年先の期待リターンを予測する変数として、AIAE は CAPE をやや上回る説明力を持つ。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P500 · 1 株あたり利益（TTM） 直近 12 か月ベース。利益はバリュエーションの分子であり、長期株価の土台。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P500 · 自己資本利益率 株主資本 1 ドルあたりの年間利益。過去 20 年間、15% 前後で安定している——指数の収益力の底。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png 今年はバリュエーション年か、利益年か 1928 年以降の各年の価格リターンを 2 つに分ける——TTM PE 倍数の変化と TTM EPS の変化（シラー基準）。同符号で片側が大きい年は「バリュエーション主導」または「利益主導」、同符号で拮抗する年は「双輪駆動」、逆符号の年は「対抗」とラベル付け。上に積み上げ棒、下に並び替え可能な明細表。2008-2009、2020、2023-2024 のような教科書的な年はすぐに目立つ。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png すべての深い下落には名前がある 1929 年の断崖から 2020 年のパンデミックまで。数十回の大幅ドローダウンが、それぞれの形と注釈を残している。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 年内の最大下落幅 vs 年末リターン 99 年の平均：年内ドローダウンは約 -14%。それでも年末の平均はプラス。途中の揺れを耐えた投資家は、最後には報われてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png マーケットの呼吸数 20 日と 60 日の年率ボラティリティ。長期中央値はおよそ 15%。30% を超えると、ほぼ毎回なんらかの転換点が背後にある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX · 保険料の帳簿 市場が今後 30 日間のボラティリティをどう見ているか。VIX が 30 を超えたら、投資家はすでに次のリスクに保険料を払っている。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 12 か月の季節性 2000 年以降の月別リターン。11 月と 4 月の勝率が最も高く、9 月は歴史的に最も赤字になりやすい。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png S&P500 はどのように「組まれる」のか 採用基準、加重方法、構成変更のガバナンス。ルールが「誰が米国大型株を代表できるか」を決める。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 11 セクターのウェイト分布 情報技術が圧倒的首位。金融、ヘルスケア、一般消費財が続く。セクター円グラフは、米国産業構造のスナップショットそのもの。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png マグニフィセント 7 · 7 銘柄等加重指数 2022 年 1 月 3 日 = 100。近年の指数上昇の大半を担う 7 銘柄。集中度議論の起点。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 採用と除外の履歴 過去 10 年の構成変更記録。一つひとつの追加・削除が上場企業の盛衰の記録。指数はこれで米経済と歩調を合わせ続ける。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png ナスダック総合 · 半世紀の長距離走 1971 年 2 月 5 日に 100 で発進。現在 16,000 超。この曲線は、米国テクノロジー産業と同時進行で描かれてきた。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png ナスダック強気・弱気 · 対数前年比の視点 プラスとマイナスが交互。2000 年のドットコム解け、2022 年の引き締めが、このタイムライン上で最も深い二つの谷。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 構成銘柄 1 週 / 1 ヶ月 / 年初来 / 1 年 リターン順位 右上で過去 1 週、1 ヶ月、年初来、1 年の 4 つの窓を切り替える。短期のリストは日々更新される。1 年スパンで見ると 1 位から 100 位までの分散が非常に大きく、長期的には少数の首位銘柄がナスダック 100 の成績の大半を運ぶ。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png ナスダック 100 · 予想 PER（25 年） Bloomberg「BEst P/E Ratio」——アナリストのナスダック 100 向こう 12 か月利益のコンセンサス——を月次で 2001 年 1 月から今日まで。2001〜2003 年の区間はトゲのように見えるが、これはネットバブル崩壊で利益がほぼゼロまで沈み、分母が小さすぎて式が歪んだためで、最高は 1 か月で約 199 倍まで跳ね上がっている。レンズを 5 年・10 年に引いて、今日の 25 倍を本来の参照枠の中で見直す。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png ナスダック 100 · リレーティング × 修正 ナスダック 100 には信頼できる長期 TTM PE データはないが、Bloomberg の予想 PE 月次スナップショットは 2001 年まで遡る。本表はそれを使い「予想 PE 倍数変化 + 予想 EPS 修正」に分解する。倍数が動いた幅は市場が次年度利益にどれだけ強気か、EPS が動いた幅はアナリストが翌期 EPS をどれだけ上方/下方修正したかを示す。これはフォワード基準で、S&P 500 の TTM 表とは口径が異なる——読み方は「市場センチメント + コンセンサス修正」。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 年間リターン 1999 年以降の年率平均は約 15%。単年最悪は 2008 年の -42%。高リターンと高ボラティリティは常に同行する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png ナスダック100 年間リターン分布 1986 年以降のすべての年をトータルリターン（配当再投資）で 11 区間に振り分け。41 年の中で右テールが +50% を超えたのは 5 回、左テールが -40% を割り込んだのは 1 回。「高い平均値 ≠ 安定成長」というファットテールの形状を体感する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png ナスダック100 · 購入年・売却年を自由に 1986 年以降の年率マトリックス。保有期間が長いほど年率は長期平均に収束する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png ナスダック100 · 5 年ローリング年率 1990 年以降の月次観測。各点が過去 5 年を振り返る。マイナス窓はおよそ 1 割。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 総リターン · 価格 / 配当 / 自社株買い 信頼できる自社株買いデータが揃う直近 6 年。テック株の総リターンに占める自社株買いの割合は今も上昇中。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png ナスダック100 · 59 回の歴史的ドローダウン 2000–2002 年の累計下落は -83%。今なおバブル崩壊の最も典型的な教科書例。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png ナスダック100 · 年内最大下落 vs 年末リターン 平均年内ドローダウンは約 -18%、それでも年末平均は約 +18%。テック株の魅力と代償はこの差にある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png ナスダック100 · 20/60 日年率ボラ 中央値は約 22%、S&P500 より構造的に一段上。テックセクターにとって、高ボラは例外ではなく常態。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · ナスダック100 のボラティリティ指数 CBOE が 2001 年に導入。VXN が 35 を超えると、テック株がシステミックなリスク局面に入ったサインとみなされる。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png ナスダック100 月次リターン・ヒートマップ 1985 年以降。11 月と 12 月の勝率が最も高く、1 月と 9 月は赤字になりやすい。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 上位銘柄と累積ウェイト 公開されている保有比率は上位銘柄を中心に示し、残りは「その他」としてまとめる。集中度が高いほど、指数の成績は少数の主力銘柄に左右される。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png ナスダック100 · 構成銘柄とウェイト分布 上位銘柄と残りの構成銘柄とのウェイト差は極めて大きい。集中度が高いほど、指数の成績は少数の首位銘柄に依存する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png フィラデルフィア半導体指数の三十年 1994 年 5 月以降の日次終値と高値からのドローダウン帯。半導体は二度の崩壊（2000、2008）、二度の中規模ドローダウン（2018、2022）、そして AI 時代の強気相場を駆け抜けた。米国株で最も振幅の大きい産業を一枚に。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png 半導体セクターの年次成績簿 1995 年以降の毎年。平均リターンは S&P をはるかに上回るが、数年に一度はほぼ半値に近い年も刻まれる——「平均高 ≠ 安定成長」が最も極端に出るのが半導体。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png 三十年の年間リターン、ビン分け 毎年を 11 区間に振り分け。右尾の +50% 超は複数回、左尾の -40% 超も複数回——これがファットテールの本当の姿で、整ったベルカーブではない。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png 毎年、必ず一度は下げる 半導体の年内ドローダウン平均は S&P より一段深い（約 -20% vs -14%）。プラスで終えた年でも、途中で 2 桁の下げを経験するのが常——セクター固有のボラの代償。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png SOX の中身を解剖する 30 銘柄をサブ業種別に分類：ファブレス設計、ファウンドリ、メモリ、製造装置、アナログ、RF、IDM。海外銘柄は国コードで明示——半導体は純粋に米国だけの産業ではない。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png SMH が実際に保有する銘柄とウェイト SMH は MVIS US 25 指数を追随、25 銘柄構成。Yahoo は上位約 10 銘柄（ETF の約 70%）のウェイトを開示。残り 15 銘柄はサブセクター付きで列挙するが、ウェイト欄は「非開示」。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png サイクル王者——SOX に残るのは 1 社のみ メモリは半導体内で最も振幅の大きいサブ業種。SOX の唯一の純メモリ銘柄は MU。Samsung と SK Hynix は KOSPI に上場——SMH を買っても世界メモリ時価総額の約 60% が抜け落ちる。AI HBM ブームはこの 3 社で分け合っている。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png 誰が先導し、誰が遅れているか 3 本の比率曲線、1999 年末 = 100。半導体 vs 大盘、半導体 vs テック全体、テック全体 vs 大盘。凡例クリックで線を切替、ズームで各リーダーシップ局面を読む。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png メモリ／HBM は 1999 からどのくらい離れているか MU と NVDA の TTM PE を 2022 年から現在まで。横の参照帯は 1999-2000 年ドットコム頂点の予想 PE（CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×）。下のカードは Samsung と SK Hynix の現在スナップショット——HBM の本当の主役だが、報告口径と会計基準が違うため現在値のみで示す。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png XLK の二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上場、ちょうどドットコム頂点直前。この曲線には -83% の 2000-2002 崩壊、-50% の GFC、-34% の 2022 が含まれ、その直後に AI 強気相場へ繋がる。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png XLK の年次成績簿 1999 年以降の完全な年次。1999 年は +75% の極端な右尾、2008 年は -42% の極端な左尾、2023-2024 年は AI 牽引で 2 年連続の高値圏ダブル。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png 二十七年の年間リターン、ビン分け 情報技術全体の平均は半導体に近いが、分散はやや小さい——XLK にはソフトウェア、IT サービス、決済テックが含まれ、純ハードウェア・サイクルを緩和する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png 二十七年の年内深さ XLK の年内 DD 平均は約 -16%、S&P と半導体の中間。ただし 2000、2008、2022 はいずれも -30% を超える年内下げを記録。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png XLK の上位保有 AAPL + MSFT + NVDA の上位 3 銘柄ですでに 50% 超——XLK は米国株で最も集中した業種 ETF。Yahoo は上位 10 銘柄（ETF の約 60%）を開示、残り約 60 銘柄の尾部はこの表示の下に。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png 2018 年 9 月、XLK は一日で 5 分の 1 が入れ替わった S&P / MSCI が GOOGL、META、NFLX などを情報技術から新設の「コミュニケーション・サービス」へ移管。XLK の長期曲線はこの日をまたぐが、内部の構成は丸ごと入れ替わっている——曲線を読む際にこの口径の継ぎ目を意識する必要がある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png XLF の二十七年弧 1998 年 12 月上場、XLK と同 vintage。この曲線で最も深い傷跡は 2008 年——全業種累計 -84% のドローダウンは、業種現代史上最深の出来事。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png XLF の年次成績簿 二十七年の完全データ。2008 一年で -55%、2009 の +17% 反発では到底取り戻せない。2023 年は地銀ショックで年内 -16% をつけた後、最終的にはプラスで終了。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png 二十七年の年間リターン、ビン分け 金融セクターの平均は S&P をやや下回るが、左尾が極端に深い——これが「危機セクター」の特徴：大半の年は穏やかに上昇するが、一旦何かが壊れると業種全体規模の事故になる。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png 金融セクターの年内深さ 金融の年内 DD 平均は S&P と近いが、2008、2009、2020、2023 の激しい変動はいずれもこのセクターに集中している。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008、米国金融の疫病年 頭部金融機関 5 社がこの一年で消滅——Bear、Lehman、Wamu、Wachovia、AIG。残った 5 社は生き延び、倒れた者を吸収して規模を拡大した。これこそが本 ETF の真の「物語の核」。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png イールドカーブ × XLF の因果連鎖 上：2 年 / 10 年米国債スプレッド、1976 年から現在まで（マイナス領域が「逆イールド」）。下：XLF の trailing 12 ヶ月リターン。銀行はスプレッドで稼ぐ——カーブが先に動き、セクターは通常 3–9 ヶ月遅れて追随する。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png 2023 年 3 月、Visa と Mastercard が一夜で金融株に S&P と MSCI が決済テック V / MA / PYPL などを情報技術から金融サービスへ移管。XLF は一夜で約 12% の新ウェイトを獲得——XLF の長期曲線を読む際は、2023 年のこの線も避けて読む必要がある。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png XLF の上位保有 BRK.B + JPM 合計 ~23%、V + MA 合計 ~13%。BRK.B を「金融」と呼ぶには無理があるが、GICS がそう分類するなら XLF もそれに従う。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png マグニフィセント 7 等加重指数 2022-01-03 = 100、7 銘柄を等加重で再投資なしの平均。このチャートが答えるのは「2022 年初に 7 銘柄を等加重で買って今日まで保有したらどうなったか」——そして 7 銘柄間でどれだけ差が開いたか。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png 7 社で、米国株の 3 分の 1 2018 年の 13% から 2024 年末の 33% 超へ——この 7 銘柄が S&P 500 時価総額の 3 分の 1 を占める。1970 年代の Nifty Fifty 以降、これに匹敵する単一グループの集中度はなかった。各四半期データ点に当時の注釈を付している。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png 7 銘柄それぞれのドローダウン軌跡 各銘柄の日次距離高値ドローダウンを 2018 年から同じキャンバスに重ねる。MSFT が最も安定、TSLA が最大の振幅、META は 2022 年 -77% から 14 ヶ月で倍に戻した。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png 7 銘柄は「ひとつの取引」になりつつあるか 上：直近 60 営業日の 2 銘柄間相関ヒートマップ。下：過去 5 年における平均非対角相関の日次ローリング——1 に近いほど「7 銘柄」は「1 銘柄」に近づく。M7 内に分散効果がどれだけ残っているかを答える唯一の図。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png 今日の NVDA は、1999 年の Cisco からどれくらい離れているか NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL の TTM PE を 2022 年から、横の参照帯は 1999-2000 年ドットコム五大銘柄の予想 PE 頂点（CSCO 140×、ORCL 150×、SUNW 120×、MSFT 60×、INTC 50×）。AI 強気相場が 1999 年の再演かを正面から問う——NVDA の現在倍数を Cisco 140× の線に並べる。 https://historyofmarket.com/ja/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png マグニフィセント 7 の祖先たち M7 はゼロから生まれたわけではない。Nifty Fifty (1972) → Four Horsemen (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023)——各世代に「無敵」の上昇局面があり、必ず一度は -40% 以上のドローダウンがあった。系譜は次の通り。 https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png Noventa y nueve veredictos anuales El registro completo de rendimientos anuales desde 1928: 73 años positivos, 26 negativos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png Capitalización · Retorno 1 año · Peso en índice Eje X: capitalización. Eje Y: retorno a 12 meses. Tamaño de burbuja: peso en el índice. Los quinientos componentes en un solo gráfico. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png Cómo se ven realmente los rendimientos anuales Cada año desde 1928 clasificado por retorno total (dividendos reinvertidos) en once intervalos. El «10 % promedio» es solo un promedio — los años reales casi nunca caen cerca de él. Entrena la intuición para la forma de cola gruesa de los retornos del mercado. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png Elija cualquier año de entrada y de salida Cada celda bajo la diagonal representa un periodo de tenencia hipotético. Cuanto más larga la retención, más convergen los rendimientos hacia la media de largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png Cinco años después, el rendimiento anualizado típico Toda ventana móvil de cinco años desde 1928. Menos de una de cada diez cerró en negativo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png Retorno total = Precio + Dividendo + Recompra Desde 1999. La suma de los tres es lo que el inversor recibe realmente cada año. Las recompras superan ya a los dividendos como segundo pilar del retorno. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png Catorce cruces de la línea cero En escala logarítmica anual, positivo es alcista y negativo es bajista. Catorce cruces de la línea cero desde 1928 — cada uno, un relevo entre ciclos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png S&P 500 · PER trasero frente a PER prospectivo Dos líneas en el mismo eje. La curva trasera es la agregación ponderada por capitalización Σ(w·P)/Σ(w·trailingEps) calculada a diario sobre los 500 componentes y completada con datos mensuales de multpl para los años anteriores. La curva prospectiva proviene del «BEst P/E Ratio» de Bloomberg —el consenso a 12 meses—, con puntos de cierre trimestral desde 1990 más la lectura más reciente, en frecuencia trimestral. La diferencia entre ambas es la apuesta del mercado sobre el rumbo de los beneficios. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE — el PER suavizado por ciclo Usa las ganancias ajustadas por inflación a diez años como denominador, filtrando el ruido del ciclo económico. Media histórica cerca de 17×; la lectura de hoy se acerca al borde superior del rango secular. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE — La asignación a renta variable en EE. UU. Valor de mercado de la renta variable ÷ (renta variable + bonos + efectivo). Como predictor de los rendimientos a diez años, AIAE aporta algo más de poder explicativo que el CAPE. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 Beneficio por acción (TTM) Últimos doce meses. Las ganancias son la fuente del numerador de la valoración y la base de los precios a largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · Rentabilidad sobre recursos propios Beneficio anual por cada dólar de patrimonio del accionista. Notablemente estable cerca del 15 % durante las dos últimas décadas — el ancla de la capacidad de generar ganancias del índice. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png ¿Fue un año de múltiplo o de beneficios? El retorno de precio de cada año desde 1928, dividido en dos componentes — cambio del múltiplo TTM PE y cambio del EPS TTM (base Shiller). Los años con mismo signo y un componente dominante quedan etiquetados como «múltiplo» o «beneficios»; los equilibrados como «doble motor»; los de signo opuesto como «en pugna». Barras apiladas arriba, tabla ordenable abajo. Los años de manual — 2008-2009, 2020, 2023-2024 — saltan a la vista. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png Cada caída profunda tiene nombre Del desplome de 1929 al choque de la pandemia de 2020. Docenas de caídas relevantes dejan aquí su forma y su nota al pie. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png Caída intraanual máxima vs resultado de fin de año Noventa y nueve años: caída intraanual media cercana al -14 %, y sin embargo el promedio de cierre anual sigue siendo positivo. Quien aguanta el tramo medio suele ser compensado al final. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png El ritmo respiratorio del mercado Volatilidad anualizada a 20 y 60 días. Mediana de largo plazo en torno al 15 %. Las lecturas por encima del 30 % suelen marcar fases de transición del ciclo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — La cuenta del seguro Medida implícita de la volatilidad a 30 días. Un VIX por encima de 30 significa que el inversor ya está pagando prima para cubrirse del próximo riesgo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png Doce meses de estacionalidad Rendimientos mensuales desde 2000. Noviembre y abril tienen las mayores tasas de acierto; septiembre es históricamente el mes más difícil. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png Cómo se construye realmente el S&P 500 Umbrales de elegibilidad, metodología de ponderación y gobernanza de los cambios de componentes. Las reglas determinan qué empresas pueden representar las grandes capitalizaciones estadounidenses. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png Distribución de pesos por los 11 sectores GICS Tecnología de la información lidera con amplio margen; financieras, salud y consumo discrecional siguen a continuación. El gráfico sectorial es también un retrato breve de la industria estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · Índice equiponderado de las siete 3 de enero de 2022 = 100. Estas siete acciones aportan la mayor parte del avance reciente del índice y ocupan el centro de todo debate sobre concentración. https://historyofmarket.com/es/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png Un registro de altas y bajas La última década de cambios de componentes. Cada entrada captura el ascenso o declive de una empresa cotizada — el mecanismo por el que el índice se mantiene al paso de la economía estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png Nasdaq Compuesto — Medio siglo, del inicio a hoy Abrió en 100 el 5 de febrero de 1971; hoy supera los 16 000. La línea discurre en paralelo al auge de la tecnología estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png Nasdaq alcista/bajista — Log anual Positivo y negativo se alternan. El derrumbe puntocom de 2000 y el endurecimiento monetario de 2022 son los dos tramos negativos más profundos de esta línea. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png Ranking de retorno: 1 semana / 1 mes / YTD / 1 año En la esquina superior derecha alterna entre las ventanas de 1 semana, 1 mes, año natural (YTD) y 1 año. El ranking de corto plazo cambia a diario; en la ventana de 1 año la dispersión del primer al centésimo puesto es inusualmente amplia — a largo plazo, el rendimiento del Nasdaq 100 lo lleva un pequeño grupo en la cabeza. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png Nasdaq 100 · PER prospectivo — veinticinco años El «BEst P/E Ratio» de Bloomberg — consenso de los analistas para los beneficios del Nasdaq 100 a doce meses — en frecuencia mensual desde enero de 2001 hasta hoy. El tramo 2001-2003 parece una espiga porque los beneficios del Nasdaq se desplomaron cerca de cero durante el estallido punto-com, distorsionando el denominador hasta llevar un mes a ~199×. Amplíe la ventana a 5 o 10 años para situar el ~25× actual en su verdadero marco de referencia. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revisión El Nasdaq 100 carece de un historial limpio de TTM PE, pero los snapshots mensuales del PER prospectivo de Bloomberg llegan hasta 2001. Por eso esta tabla descompone los retornos como «rerating del PER prospectivo + revisión del EPS prospectivo»: el componente del múltiplo indica cuánto se movió la apetencia del mercado por los beneficios futuros; el componente de EPS, cuánto revisaron los analistas esas estimaciones. Cuidado: la base difiere del cuadro del S&P 500 — léase como «sentimiento + revisiones de consenso», no como «beneficios actuales». https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ Rendimientos anuales Cerca de 15 % anualizado desde 1999. La peor pérdida en un año llegó en 2008 con -42 %. El alto rendimiento y la alta volatilidad viajan juntos. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png Distribución de rendimientos anuales del Nasdaq 100 Cada año desde 1986 clasificado por retorno total (dividendos reinvertidos) en once intervalos. En 41 años la cola derecha superó +50 % cinco veces y la izquierda rompió -40 % una vez — experimenta directamente que «media alta ≠ crecimiento estable». https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png Nasdaq 100 · Elija entrada, elija salida La matriz de rendimientos anualizados desde 1986. Tenencias más largas acercan los resultados anualizados a la media de largo plazo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png Nasdaq 100 · Anualizado móvil a cinco años Observaciones mensuales desde 1990, cada una mirando atrás cinco años. Las ventanas negativas son aproximadamente una de cada diez. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png Retorno total del QQQ · Precio / Dividendo / Recompra Seis años con datos fiables de recompras. Dentro del retorno total de la tecnología, la componente de recompra sigue creciendo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png Nasdaq 100 · Cincuenta y nueve caídas históricas Caída acumulada del 83 % entre 2000 y 2002. Sigue siendo el caso de libro sobre el auge y el desmonte de una burbuja. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png Nasdaq 100 · Caída intraanual máxima vs cierre de año Caída intraanual media cercana al -18 %; cierre medio del año aún próximo al +18 %. La relación entre volatilidad y resultado final está en el centro de entender la tecnología. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png Nasdaq 100 · Volatilidad anualizada a 20/60 días Mediana cerca del 22 %, sistemáticamente un escalón por encima del S&P 500. La amplitud elevada es un rasgo estructural del sector, no una anomalía. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · El índice de volatilidad del Nasdaq 100 Lanzado por el CBOE en 2001. Una lectura del VXN por encima de 35 suele indicar que la tecnología ha entrado en territorio de riesgo sistémico. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png Mapa de calor mensual del Nasdaq 100 Desde 1985. Noviembre y diciembre presentan las mayores tasas de acierto; enero y septiembre registran las caídas más frecuentes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png Principales tenencias y peso acumulado Los pesos públicos cubren las mayores posiciones; el resto se agrupa como Otros. Cuanto más concentrado está el índice, más depende de unos pocos líderes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png Nasdaq 100 · Componentes y distribución de pesos La diferencia de peso entre las mayores posiciones y el resto de componentes es inusualmente grande. Cuanto más concentrado el índice, más depende su rendimiento de un puñado de líderes. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png Tres décadas del Índice Semiconductor de Filadelfia Cierres diarios desde mayo de 1994, con la cinta de drawdown bajo la curva. La gráfica abarca dos colapsos (2000, 2008), dos drawdowns intermedios (2018, 2022) y el mercado alcista de la era IA — la industria de mayor amplitud de la renta variable estadounidense en un solo lienzo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png El libro mayor anual del sector semiconductor Cierre anual de cada año desde 1995. El rendimiento medio supera ampliamente al del S&P, pero cada pocos años aparece un año cercano a una mitad — la versión más extrema de «media alta ≠ crecimiento estable». https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png Treinta años de retornos anuales, agrupados Cada año asignado a uno de 11 intervalos. La cola derecha más allá de +50 % aparece más de una vez; la cola izquierda más allá de -40 % también — esta es la forma con colas pesadas de los semiconductores, no una campana ordenada. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png Cada año, la caída llega primero El drawdown intraanual medio es un escalón más profundo que el del S&P (~−20 % vs −14 %). Incluso los años en verde incluyen rutinariamente una caída intermedia de dos dígitos — el coste de la volatilidad nativa del sector. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png Qué hay realmente dentro del SOX Treinta nombres agrupados por subindustria: diseño fabless, foundry, memoria, equipamiento, analógico, RF e IDM. Los nombres extranjeros llevan código de país — los semiconductores no son un sector puramente estadounidense. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png Qué posee realmente SMH, y con qué peso SMH replica el índice MVIS US 25 — 25 nombres en total. Yahoo publica pesos en vivo para los 10 principales (~70 % del ETF); los 15 restantes aparecen con subsector pero con peso «n/d». https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png El rey del ciclo — y solo uno sobrevive en el SOX La memoria es la subindustria semi de mayor amplitud. MU es el único pure-play en el SOX; Samsung y SK Hynix cotizan en KOSPI. Comprar SMH deja fuera ~60 % de la capitalización global de memoria. El auge HBM de la IA se reparte entre estos tres. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png Quién lidera, quién se queda atrás Tres ratios reindexadas a 100 en el cierre de 1999. Semis vs mercado amplio, semis vs el sector tecnológico, y tecnología vs mercado amplio. Pulsa la leyenda para ocultar líneas; haz zoom para leer cada régimen de liderazgo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png Cuánto distan la memoria y HBM del 1999 El TTM PE de MU y NVDA desde 2022 hasta hoy, con bandas horizontales que marcan los PER prospectivos pico de la cumbre puntocom 1999-2000 (CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×). Las tarjetas inferiores añaden la foto actual de Samsung y SK Hynix — los verdaderos protagonistas del HBM — pero su periodicidad de reporte y base contable difieren, por lo que aparecen solo como datos del presente. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png El arco de veintisiete años del XLK Cotizado en diciembre de 1998, justo antes del pico puntocom. La curva contiene un colapso del -83 % hasta 2002, un drawdown del -50 % en la GFC, un -34 % en 2022, y la recuperación de la era IA que siguió. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png El libro mayor anual del XLK Años completos desde 1999. El +75 % de 1999 está en la cola derecha extrema; el -42 % de 2008 en la izquierda extrema. 2023-2024 apilaron dos años alcistas impulsados por la IA. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png Veintisiete años de retornos anuales, agrupados La media es similar a la de los semis, pero la varianza es un escalón menor — el software, los servicios IT y la tecnología de pagos dentro del XLK suavizan el ciclo puramente hardware. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png Veintisiete años de profundidad intraanual Drawdown intraanual medio ~-16 %, entre el S&P y los semis. Pero 2000, 2008 y 2022 cada uno superó -30 % intraanual. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png Las principales tenencias del XLK AAPL + MSFT + NVDA ya suman más del 50 % del ETF — el XLK es el ETF sectorial más concentrado del mercado estadounidense. Yahoo expone las 10 principales (~60 % del fondo); la cola de ~60 nombres queda por debajo de esta vista. https://historyofmarket.com/es/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png Septiembre de 2018: una quinta parte del XLK cambió en un día S&P y MSCI movieron GOOGL, META, NFLX y otros fuera de Tecnología de la Información y los reubicaron en el recién creado sector Servicios de Comunicación. La curva larga del XLK cruza esta fecha, pero su composición interna cambió de manera significativa — léase la gráfica con esta costura en mente. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png El arco de veintisiete años del XLF Cotizado en diciembre de 1998, misma vintage que el XLK. La marca más profunda de esta curva es 2008 — un drawdown acumulado del -84 %, el más profundo en toda la historia moderna del sector. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png El libro mayor anual del XLF Veintisiete años completos. 2008 solo restó -55 %; el rebote del +17 % de 2009 quedó muy lejos de recuperar. El susto regional de 2023 imprimió -16 % intraanual antes de cerrar en positivo. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png Veintisiete años de retornos anuales, agrupados La media es ligeramente inferior al S&P, pero la cola izquierda es extrema — la firma de un «sector de crisis»: la mayoría de los años suben ordenadamente, pero cuando algo se rompe, es a escala de toda la industria. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png Profundidad intraanual de las financieras El drawdown intraanual medio se aproxima al del S&P, pero 2008, 2009, 2020 y 2023 concentraron su volatilidad en este sector. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008, el año de la peste de las financieras estadounidenses Cinco grandes instituciones financieras desaparecieron en ese único año — Bear, Lehman, Wamu, Wachovia, AIG. Otras cinco sobrevivieron, y la mayoría se expandió absorbiendo a las caídas. Este es el verdadero núcleo narrativo de este ETF. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png Curva de tipos × XLF — la cadena causal Arriba: spread 2 años / 10 años del Tesoro desde 1976 hasta hoy; las bandas sombreadas son «inversiones». Abajo: retorno trasero a 12 meses del XLF. Los bancos cobran el spread — la curva se mueve primero, el sector la sigue, normalmente con 3-9 meses de retraso. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png Marzo de 2023: Visa y Mastercard se convirtieron en acciones financieras de un día para otro S&P y MSCI reclasificaron la tecnología de pagos — V, MA, PYPL y otros — desde Tecnología de la Información a Servicios Financieros. El XLF ganó ~12 % de nuevo peso en un día. Al leer la curva larga del XLF, esta costura de 2023 es la segunda que conviene esquivar. https://historyofmarket.com/es/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png Las principales tenencias del XLF BRK.B + JPM suman ~23 %; V + MA juntos ~13 %. Llamar a BRK.B «financiera» fuerza la definición — pero así lo clasifica GICS, y XLF sigue su criterio. https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png Índice equiponderado Magnificent 7 Indexado al 2022-01-03 = 100; siete miembros, igual peso, sin dividendos. La pregunta que responde este gráfico: «si hubieras comprado los siete a partes iguales a inicio de 2022, ¿dónde estarías hoy — y cuán amplia es la brecha entre miembros?». https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png Siete empresas, un tercio de la renta variable estadounidense Del 13 % en 2018 a más del 33 % a finales de 2024 — estas siete acciones poseen un tercio de la capitalización del S&P 500. Desde los Nifty Fifty de los años 70, ningún grupo comparable había alcanzado esta cuota. Cada punto trimestral lleva su propia nota. https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png Trayectoria del drawdown de cada miembro Drawdown diario desde máximos de cada uno de los siete nombres desde 2018, sobre el mismo lienzo. MSFT se ha mantenido como el más estable; TSLA tiene la mayor amplitud; META cayó -77 % en 2022 y luego se duplicó en 14 meses. https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png ¿Se están convirtiendo los siete en una sola operación? Arriba: mapa de calor de la matriz de correlación pareada sobre los últimos 60 días bursátiles. Abajo: la correlación promedio fuera de diagonal en ventana móvil diaria a 5 años. Cuanto más cerca de 1, más se comportan «los siete» como «uno». Este es el gráfico que responde qué queda de la diversificación dentro de M7. https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png ¿Cuán lejos está la NVDA de hoy del Cisco de 1999? PER TTM de NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL desde 2022, con bandas horizontales que marcan los PER prospectivos pico de las cinco grandes puntocom 1999-2000 (CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×, SUNW 120×, MSFT 60×, INTC 50×). Este gráfico responde de frente a la cuestión de la burbuja IA — compara el múltiplo actual de NVDA con la línea de Cisco en 140×. https://historyofmarket.com/es/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png Los antepasados de Magnificent 7 M7 no apareció de la nada. Nifty Fifty (1972) → Four Horsemen (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023) — cada generación tuvo su corrida «invencible» y, al menos, un drawdown de -40 %. El linaje: https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual.png 99 년간의 연간 성적표 1928 년 이래의 전체 연간 수익률 기록: 상승 73 년, 하락 26 년. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/scatter/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/scatter.png 시가총액 · 1 년 수익률 · 지수 비중 X축은 시가총액, Y축은 최근 12 개월 수익률, 버블 크기는 지수 내 비중. 500 개 구성 종목을 한 화면에. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annual-dist.png 연간 수익률의 실제 모습 1928년 이래 매년을 총수익(배당 재투자) 기준으로 11개 구간에 배치. '평균 10%'는 어디까지나 평균일 뿐, 실제 연도는 평균 근처에 거의 떨어지지 않는다. 시장 수익률의 '팻테일 분포'에 대한 직관을 단련하라. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/annualized-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/annualized-matrix.png 매수 연도와 매도 연도를 자유롭게 선택 대각선 아래 각 칸이 하나의 가상 보유 기간. 보유 기간이 길수록 연환산 수익률은 장기 평균으로 수렴한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rolling.png 5 년 후, 일반적인 연환산 수익률 1928 년 이후의 모든 5 년 롤링 창. 마이너스로 끝난 창은 전체의 10%도 되지 않는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/return-details.png 총수익 = 가격 + 배당 + 자사주 매입 1999 년 이후. 이 세 가지를 합쳐야 투자자가 실제로 받는 연간 수익이다. 자사주 매입은 배당을 넘어 수익의 두 번째 기둥이 되었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-logyoy.png 제로 라인을 가로지른 14 번 로그 전년비에서 양수는 상승장, 음수는 하락장. 1928 년 이래 제로 라인을 가로지른 것은 14 회 — 매번 시장 사이클의 전환점이었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/forward-pe.png S&P 500 · 후행 PER 과 선행 PER 같은 축 위의 두 곡선. 후행은 500 개 구성 종목의 시가총액 가중치로 계산한 Σ(w·P)/Σ(w·TTM EPS) 를 매일 갱신하고, 그 이전 구간은 multpl 월간 자료로 채운다. 선행은 Bloomberg 의 「BEst P/E Ratio」 — 향후 12 개월 컨센서스 — 1990 년 이후 분기말 포인트와 최근 한 점을 더한 분기 빈도다. 두 선의 간격이 곧 향후 이익 방향에 대한 시장의 베팅이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/pe.png Shiller CAPE · 경기 평활 후 PER 10 년 평균 인플레이션 조정 이익을 분모로 사용해 경기 사이클의 노이즈를 걸러낸다. 역사적 평균은 약 17 배. 오늘의 수치는 한 세기 내내 쌓아온 범위의 상단 가까이에 있다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/aiae/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/aiae.png AIAE · 미국 가계의 주식 배분 비율 주식 시가 ÷ (주식 + 채권 + 현금). 향후 10 년 수익률을 예측하는 변수로서, AIAE 는 CAPE 보다 설명력이 약간 더 높다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/eps/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/eps.png S&P 500 · 주당 순이익 (TTM) 최근 12 개월 기준. 이익은 밸류에이션 분자의 원천이자 장기 주가의 토대다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/roe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/roe.png S&P 500 · 자기자본 이익률 주주 자본 1 달러당 연간 이익. 지난 20 년간 15% 전후에서 놀라울 정도로 안정적 — 지수 수익력의 최후 저지선이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/sp500-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sp500-driver-decomp.png 올해는 밸류에이션의 해인가, 이익의 해인가 1928 년 이후 매년의 가격 수익률을 두 조각 — TTM PE 배수 변화와 TTM EPS 변화(쉴러 기준) — 으로 분해한다. 동부호이면서 한쪽이 우세한 해는 「밸류에이션 주도」 또는 「이익 주도」, 동부호이면서 균형 잡힌 해는 「쌍두 마차」, 부호가 엇갈리는 해는 「대립」으로 분류한다. 위쪽은 누적 막대, 아래쪽은 정렬 가능한 상세표. 2008-2009, 2020, 2023-2024 같은 교과서적 해는 즉시 두드러진다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/drawdown.png 모든 깊은 하락에는 이름이 있다 1929 년의 절벽에서 2020 년 팬데믹 충격까지. 수십 차례의 대폭 하락이 저마다의 모양과 주석을 남겼다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/intrayear-dd.png 연중 최대 낙폭 vs 연말 수익률 99 년간 연중 평균 낙폭은 약 -14%. 그럼에도 연말 평균은 여전히 플러스. 중간 구간의 변동을 견뎌낸 투자자는 대부분 마지막에 보상받았다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/volatility.png 시장의 호흡 속도 20 일과 60 일 연환산 변동성. 장기 중앙값은 약 15%. 30% 를 넘을 때마다 그 뒤에는 거의 언제나 하나의 전환점이 있었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/vix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/vix.png VIX — 보험료의 장부 향후 30 일 변동성에 대한 시장의 기대치. VIX 가 30 을 넘으면, 투자자는 이미 다음 리스크에 대한 보험료를 지불하고 있다는 뜻이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/monthly.png 열두 달의 계절성 2000 년 이후의 월별 수익률. 11 월과 4 월의 승률이 가장 높고, 9 월은 역사적으로 가장 힘든 달이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/rules/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/rules.png S&P 500 은 실제로 어떻게 '만들어지는가' 편입 기준, 가중 방식, 구성 변경 거버넌스. 규칙이 어떤 기업이 미국 대형주를 대표할 자격을 갖는지를 결정한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/sectors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/sectors.png GICS 11 개 섹터의 비중 분포 정보기술이 큰 격차로 선두; 금융, 헬스케어, 경기소비재가 그 뒤를 잇는다. 섹터 파이 그래프 자체가 미국 산업 구조의 스냅숏이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/m7/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/m7.png Magnificent 7 · 7 대 빅테크 동일가중 지수 2022 년 1 월 3 일 = 100. 최근 지수 상승의 대부분을 이 일곱 종목이 이끌었으며, 모든 '집중도' 논의의 출발점이 된다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/sp500/changes/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/changes.png 편입과 편출의 역사 최근 10 년의 구성 변경 기록. 각 항목은 상장사의 흥망을 담고 있다 — 지수가 미국 경제의 변화에 보조를 맞추는 메커니즘이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-composite.png 나스닥 종합지수 · 반세기의 장거리 주행 1971 년 2 월 5 일 100 포인트로 출발. 오늘은 16,000 을 넘겼다. 이 곡선은 미국 테크 산업의 성장과 나란히 달려왔다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq-logyoy.png 나스닥 상승·하락 · 로그 전년비 시각 양수와 음수가 교차한다. 2000 년 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 2022 년 긴축 국면이 이 타임라인에서 가장 깊은 두 개의 음구간이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-ytd.png 구성 종목 1 주 / 1 개월 / YTD / 1 년 수익률 순위 오른쪽 상단에서 최근 1 주, 1 개월, 연초 대비, 1 년 네 개 창을 전환한다. 단기 순위는 매일 바뀌지만, 1 년 시야에서는 1 위부터 100 위까지의 분산이 매우 커 장기적으로 나스닥 100 의 수익 대부분은 상단의 소수 종목이 이끈다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-forward-pe/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-forward-pe.png 나스닥 100 · 선행 PER, 25 년사 Bloomberg 의 「BEst P/E Ratio」 — 나스닥 100 의 향후 12 개월 컨센서스 이익 — 을 2001 년 1 월부터 오늘까지 월간으로 본다. 2001 ~ 2003 년 구간이 가시처럼 솟은 것은 닷컴 붕괴기에 이익이 거의 0 까지 추락해 분모가 너무 작아진 결과로, 한 달에 약 199 배까지 튀었다. 5 년 / 10 년 창으로 줌아웃해야 오늘의 25 배가 진짜 참조 범위 안에 놓인다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-driver-decomp/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-driver-decomp.png 나스닥 100 · 리레이팅 × 리비전 나스닥 100 은 신뢰할 만한 장기 TTM PE 데이터가 없지만, Bloomberg 의 선행 PE 월간 스냅숏은 2001 년까지 거슬러 올라간다. 이 표는 「선행 PE 배수 변화 + 선행 EPS 수정」으로 분해한다. 배수가 움직인 폭은 시장의 차년도 이익에 대한 베팅 강도, EPS 가 움직인 폭은 애널리스트의 차년도 추정치 상·하향 폭을 의미한다. 이 표는 선행 기준이며 S&P 500 의 TTM 표와 기준이 다르다 — 「시장 심리 + 컨센서스 수정」 으로 읽어야 한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-annual.png QQQ 연간 수익률 1999 년 이후 연환산 평균은 약 15%. 최악의 단일 연도 손실은 2008 년 -42%. 높은 수익률과 높은 변동성은 늘 함께 온다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-annual-dist.png 나스닥 100 연간 수익률 분포 1986년 이래 매년을 총수익(배당 재투자) 기준으로 11개 구간에 배치. 41년 표본에서 오른쪽 꼬리가 +50%를 넘은 것이 5회, 왼쪽 꼬리가 -40% 아래로 떨어진 것이 1회. '높은 평균 ≠ 안정 성장'이라는 팻테일의 형상을 체감하라. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-matrix.png 나스닥 100 · 매수·매도 연도 자유 선택 1986 년 이후의 연환산 매트릭스. 보유 기간이 길수록 결과는 장기 평균으로 수렴한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-rolling.png 나스닥 100 · 5 년 롤링 연환산 수익률 1990 년 이후 월별 관측치. 각 점은 과거 5 년을 돌아본다. 음의 창은 전체 표본의 약 10%. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-return-details.png QQQ 총수익 · 가격 / 배당 / 자사주 매입 신뢰할 만한 자사주 매입 데이터가 확보된 최근 6 년. 테크의 총수익 안에서 자사주 매입의 비중은 여전히 상승 중이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-drawdown.png 나스닥 100 · 59 차례의 역사적 낙폭 2000–2002 년 누적 하락은 -83%. 지금도 버블과 그 해체의 가장 명료한 교과서 사례. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-intrayear-dd.png 나스닥 100 · 연중 최대 낙폭 vs 연말 수익률 연중 평균 낙폭은 약 -18%, 그러나 연말 평균은 여전히 +18% 근처. 변동성과 최종 수익의 이 관계가 테크를 이해하는 핵심이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-volatility.png 나스닥 100 · 20/60 일 연환산 변동성 중앙값은 약 22%, 구조적으로 S&P 500 보다 한 단계 높다. 테크 섹터에서 높은 진폭은 예외가 아니라 상수다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-vxn.png VXN · 나스닥 100 의 변동성 지수 CBOE 가 2001 년에 도입. VXN 이 35 를 넘으면 보통 테크가 시스템 리스크 구간에 들어갔다는 신호로 읽는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/ndx-monthly.png 나스닥 100 월별 수익률 히트맵 1985 년 이후. 11 월과 12 월의 월간 승률이 가장 높고, 1 월과 9 월이 가장 자주 하락한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-weights.png 상위 보유 종목과 누적 비중 공개 보유 비중은 상위 종목을 중심으로 보여 주고, 나머지는 기타로 묶는다. 집중도가 높을수록 지수 성과는 소수의 선두 기업에 더 크게 좌우된다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/nasdaq100-companies.png 나스닥 100 · 구성 종목과 비중 분포 상위 보유 종목과 나머지 구성 종목 사이의 비중 격차가 매우 크다. 지수가 집중될수록 성적은 소수의 선두 기업에 더 많이 의존한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-price.png 필라델피아 반도체 지수의 30 년 1994 년 5 월 이후 일간 종가와 최고치 대비 낙폭 띠. 반도체는 두 번의 붕괴(2000, 2008), 두 번의 중간급 낙폭(2018, 2022), 그리고 AI 시대의 강세장을 거쳐왔다 — 미국 주식에서 진폭이 가장 큰 산업을 한 장에 담는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual.png 반도체 섹터의 연도별 성적표 1995 년 이래의 매년. 평균 수익률은 S&P 를 크게 웃돌지만, 몇 년에 한 번은 반 토막 가까운 해가 등장한다 — 「평균이 높다 ≠ 안정 성장」이 가장 극단적으로 드러나는 곳이 반도체다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-annual-dist.png 30 년 연간 수익률을 구간으로 매년을 11 개 구간에 배치. 오른쪽 꼬리가 +50% 를 넘긴 해도, 왼쪽 꼬리가 -40% 아래로 떨어진 해도 한 번이 아니다 — 이것이 팻테일의 진짜 모습이며, 깔끔한 종모양이 아니다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-intrayear-dd.png 매년, 일단 한 번은 떨어진다 반도체의 연중 낙폭 평균은 S&P 보다 한 단계 깊다(약 -20% vs -14%). 빨간 해에도 도중에 두 자릿수 하락을 한 번씩은 겪는다 — 섹터 고유 변동성의 대가다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-composition/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-composition.png SOX 안에 실제로 들어 있는 것 30 종목을 하위 산업별로 분류: 팹리스 설계, 파운드리, 메모리, 장비, 아날로그, RF, IDM. 해외 종목은 국가 코드로 표시 — 반도체는 순수한 미국만의 산업이 아니다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-smh/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-smh.png SMH 가 실제 보유하는 종목과 비중 SMH 는 MVIS US 25 지수를 추종, 총 25 종목. Yahoo 는 상위 약 10 종목(ETF 의 약 70%)의 비중을 공개한다. 나머지 15 종목은 하위 섹터 태그와 함께 나열하지만 비중은 「미공개」. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-memory/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory.png 사이클 왕 — SOX 에 남은 건 단 한 종목 메모리는 반도체 내에서 가장 진폭이 큰 하위 산업. SOX 의 유일한 순수 메모리 종목은 MU. 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스는 KOSPI 상장이라, SMH 를 사도 글로벌 메모리 시가총액의 약 60% 가 빠진다. AI HBM 호황은 이 세 회사가 나누어 가져간다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-ratios/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-ratios.png 누가 앞서고 누가 뒤처지는가 세 개의 비율 곡선, 1999 년 말 = 100. 반도체 vs 대형주, 반도체 vs 테크 섹터, 테크 vs 대형주. 범례 클릭으로 선 전환, 줌인으로 각 리더십 국면의 시작과 끝을 읽는다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/semi/semi-memory-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/semi-memory-valuation.png 메모리/HBM 은 1999 에서 얼마나 떨어져 있나 MU 와 NVDA 의 TTM PE 를 2022 년부터 현재까지. 가로 점선은 1999-2000 닷컴 정점의 선행 PE(CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×). 아래 카드에는 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 현재 스냅숏 — HBM 진영의 진짜 주연들이지만, 보고 주기와 회계 기준이 달라 현재값만 표시한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-price.png XLK 의 27 년 호 1998 년 12 월 상장, 마침 닷컴 정점 직전. 이 곡선에는 2000-2002 -83% 붕괴, GFC -50%, 2022 -34% 하락, 그리고 그 뒤를 잇는 AI 강세장이 모두 담겨 있다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual.png XLK 의 연도별 성적표 1999 년 이래의 완전한 연간 데이터. 1999 년은 +75% 의 극단적 오른쪽 꼬리, 2008 년은 -42% 의 극단적 왼쪽 꼬리. 2023-2024 년은 AI 추진력으로 연속 두 해를 상위 구간에 쌓아 올렸다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-annual-dist.png 27 년 연간 수익률을 구간으로 평균은 반도체와 비슷하지만 분산은 한 단계 좁다 — XLK 안의 소프트웨어, IT 서비스, 결제 테크가 순수 하드웨어 사이클의 진폭을 완충한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-intrayear-dd.png 27 년의 연중 깊이 XLK 의 연중 평균 낙폭은 약 -16%, S&P 와 반도체의 중간. 다만 2000, 2008, 2022 의 연중 낙폭은 모두 -30% 를 넘었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-holdings.png XLK 의 상위 보유 종목 AAPL + MSFT + NVDA 상위 3 종목 합산이 이미 50% 를 넘는다 — XLK 는 미국 주식에서 가장 집중된 섹터 ETF. Yahoo 는 상위 10 종목(ETF 약 60%)을 공개하고, 나머지 약 60 개의 꼬리는 이 화면 아래에 자리한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/xlk/xlk-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/xlk-reclass.png 2018 년 9 월, XLK 가 하루 만에 1/5 을 갈아치웠다 S&P / MSCI 가 GOOGL, META, NFLX 등을 정보기술에서 새로 만든 「커뮤니케이션 서비스」 섹터로 이동시켰다. XLK 의 장기 곡선은 이 날을 가로지르지만, 내부 구성은 한 번 통째로 바뀌었다 — 이 곡선을 읽을 때는 이 기준의 이음매를 우회해야 한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-price/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-price.png XLF 의 27 년 호 1998 년 12 월 상장, XLK 와 같은 vintage. 이 곡선의 가장 깊은 흉터는 2008 년 — 전업계 누적 -84% 의 낙폭은 이 섹터 현대사에서 가장 깊은 사고였다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-annual/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual.png XLF 의 연도별 성적표 27 년의 완전 데이터. 2008 한 해에 -55%, 2009 의 +17% 반등으로는 도저히 회복하지 못했다. 2023 년 지방은행 사태로 연중 -16% 까지 떨어졌지만 결국 플러스로 마감했다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-annual-dist/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-annual-dist.png 27 년 연간 수익률을 구간으로 금융 섹터의 평균은 S&P 보다 약간 낮지만 왼쪽 꼬리는 극단적으로 깊다 — 「위기 섹터」의 시그너처: 대부분의 해는 완만히 상승하지만, 한 번 무너지면 업계 전체 규모의 사고가 된다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-intrayear-dd/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-intrayear-dd.png 금융 섹터의 연중 깊이 금융의 연중 평균 낙폭은 S&P 와 가깝지만, 2008, 2009, 2020, 2023 의 격렬한 변동은 모두 이 섹터에 집중되었다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-crisis/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-crisis.png 2008, 미국 금융의 역병의 해 그 해에 미국 금융의 다섯 거인이 사라졌다 — Bear, Lehman, Wamu, Wachovia, AIG. 다른 다섯은 살아남았고, 대부분 무너진 자들을 흡수하며 몸집을 키웠다. 이것이 이 ETF 의 진짜 「서사 핵심」이다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-rates/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-rates.png 수익률 곡선 × XLF 의 인과 사슬 위: 2 년 / 10 년 미국채 스프레드, 1976 년부터 현재까지(음수 구간은 「장단기 역전」). 아래: XLF 의 trailing 12 개월 수익률. 은행은 스프레드로 돈을 번다 — 곡선이 먼저 움직이고, 섹터는 보통 3-9 개월 뒤에 따라온다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-reclass/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-reclass.png 2023 년 3 월, Visa 와 Mastercard 가 하룻밤 사이 금융주가 되다 S&P 와 MSCI 가 결제 테크 V / MA / PYPL 등을 정보기술에서 금융 서비스로 재분류했다. XLF 는 하룻밤 사이 약 12% 의 새 비중을 얻었다 — XLF 의 장기 곡선을 읽을 때 2023 년의 이 칼자국도 우회해야 한다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/fin/fin-holdings/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/fin-holdings.png XLF 의 상위 보유 종목 BRK.B + JPM 합계 ~23%, V + MA 합계 ~13%. BRK.B 를 「금융」이라 부르기엔 무리지만, GICS 가 그렇게 분류하니 XLF 도 따른다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-index/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-index.png 매그니피센트 7 동일가중 지수 2022-01-03 = 100, 일곱 종목을 동일가중으로 무배당 평균. 이 차트가 답하는 질문은 「2022 년 초에 일곱 종목을 동일가중으로 매수해 오늘까지 보유했다면 어떻게 됐을까」 — 그리고 일곱 종목 사이의 격차가 얼마나 벌어졌는지. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-concentration/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-concentration.png 일곱 회사, 미국 주식의 3 분의 1 2018 년 13% 에서 2024 년 말 33% 초과로 — 이 일곱 종목이 S&P 500 시가총액의 3 분의 1 을 점유한다. 1970 년대 Nifty Fifty 이후, 어떤 단일 그룹도 이만큼의 비중을 가진 적이 없다. 각 분기 데이터 포인트에는 당시 주석이 달려 있다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-drawdown/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-drawdown.png 일곱 종목 각자의 낙폭 궤적 각 종목의 일간 최고치 대비 낙폭을 2018 년부터 한 캔버스에 겹친다. MSFT 가 가장 안정, TSLA 가 진폭 최대, META 는 2022 년 -77% 에서 14 개월 만에 두 배로 회복했다. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-correlation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-correlation.png 일곱은 「하나의 거래」로 수렴하고 있는가 위: 최근 60 거래일의 종목 간 상관 행렬 히트맵. 아래: 지난 5 년간 이 행렬의 비대각 평균 상관의 일간 롤링 — 1 에 가까울수록 「일곱」은 「하나」에 가까워진다. M7 안에 분산 효과가 얼마나 남았는지를 답하는 핵심 도표. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-ai-valuation/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-ai-valuation.png 오늘의 NVDA 는 1999 의 Cisco 에서 얼마나 떨어져 있나 NVDA / MSFT / META / GOOGL 의 TTM PE 를 2022 년부터, 가로 점선은 1999-2000 닷컴 다섯 거인의 선행 PE 정점(CSCO 140×, ORCL 150×, SUNW 120×, MSFT 60×, INTC 50×). 이 차트는 「AI 강세장은 1999 의 재현인가」 라는 질문에 정면으로 답한다 — NVDA 의 현재 배수를 Cisco 140× 라인에 대고 직접 비교해 보라. https://historyofmarket.com/ko/mag7/mag7-predecessors/ 2026-05-11 daily 0.7 https://historyofmarket.com/og/panels/mag7-predecessors.png 매그니피센트 7 의 조상들 M7 는 어디서 갑자기 나타난 게 아니다. Nifty Fifty (1972) → Four Horsemen (1999) → FANG (2013) → FAANG (2017) → Magnificent 7 (2023) — 각 세대는 「대적할 수 없는」 상승 국면을 가졌고, 모두 한 번 이상 -40% 이상의 낙폭을 겪었다. 계보는 다음과 같다.