FRED 2y-10y · XLF — The yield-curve × XLF causal chain
Yield curve — The 2s10s spread and how it drives financial stocks.
Top: the 2y-10y Treasury spread from 1976 to today; the shaded bands are 'inversions'. Bottom: XLF's trailing 12-month return. Banks earn the spread — the curve moves first, the sector follows, typically with a 3-9 month lag.
What this page answers
This static page is built to answer searches for FRED 2y-10y · XLF. It summarizes the live dataset behind the The yield-curve × XLF causal chain panel and links to the full interactive chart.
Top: the 2y-10y Treasury spread from 1976 to today; the shaded bands are 'inversions'. Bottom: XLF's trailing 12-month return. Banks earn the spread — the curve moves first, the sector follows, typically with a 3-9 month lag. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.
The plate
Latest Snapshot
- Updated
- 2026-08-14
Data & Source
GET /api/fin/rates.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.
Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
FAQ
Where does this data come from?
History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.
How often is it updated?
Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.
Can I use the data?
Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.