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XLF · Return Distribution

XLF — Financial Sector Annual Return Distribution Since 1999

Financial Sector Return Distribution — Distribution of annual returns for financials, reflecting pro-cyclical volatility and systemic stress windows.

The plate

Total return (dividends reinvested)Up yearDown year2026 so farMean
Most common bucket: +10% to +20%, 7 of 27 complete years · 66.7% of complete years finished up
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total return (dividends reinvested)Up yearDown year2026 so farMean
Most common bucket: +10% to +20%, 7 of 27 complete years · 66.7% of complete years finished up
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Plate V.4 Long-term mean return sits slightly below the S&P 500, but the left tail is severe: most years yield steady, moderate gains, while systemic deleveraging events trigger industry-wide declines. Data through 2026-11-12

Latest Snapshot

Average
+8.5%
Positive years
18
Negative years
9
Best year
2013 +35.6%
Worst year
2008 -54.9%
Observations
28
Sample
1999 – 2026

Long-term mean return sits slightly below the S&P 500, but the left tail is severe: most years yield steady, moderate gains, while systemic deleveraging events trigger industry-wide declines.

What this page answers

This static page is built to answer searches for XLF · Return Distribution. It summarizes the live dataset behind the Financial Sector Annual Return Distribution Since 1999 panel and links to the full interactive chart.

Long-term mean return sits slightly below the S&P 500, but the left tail is severe: most years yield steady, moderate gains, while systemic deleveraging events trigger industry-wide declines. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

View the interactive chart Download raw JSON

Data & Source

GET /api/fin/annual-tr.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

FAQ

Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh each weekend. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.