What data sources power History of Market?

Daily prices come from Yahoo Finance (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^NDX, ^DJI, ^VIX, ^VXN). Annual returns and long-range valuation series come from Macrotrends and Robert Shiller's public dataset. The AIAE (Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities) is assembled from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). S&P 500 constituents and sector weights come from S&P Global. NBER provides the business-cycle dates that shade recession overlays. Every dataset is declared as a schema.org Dataset in the page JSON-LD and listed in /llms-full.txt.

How often is the data updated?

A GitHub Actions cron refreshes the daily-tier datasets every weekday at 20:00 ET (close of the US session) and the full weekly tier on Sundays at 02:00 ET. The refresh_data.py script scrapes each source, publishes JSON to /api/, commits to the main branch, and triggers a Cloudflare Pages deploy. /api/_manifest.json carries the exact UTC timestamp of the most recent refresh.

What is the Shiller CAPE ratio?

The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE, also called Shiller PE) divides the current S&P 500 price by the trailing ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Smoothing the denominator over a full business cycle removes short-term earnings noise; the historical mean sits near 17×. CAPE is one of four valuation coordinates the site tracks (alongside AIAE, EPS, and ROE).

How many years of market history does the site cover?

The longest continuous series is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, covered back to 1914 (over a century). The S&P 500 is covered from 1928 (97 years). The Shiller CAPE and S&P 500 EPS both extend to 1871 using Shiller's reconstruction. The Nasdaq Composite runs from its 1971 inception; the Nasdaq 100 / QQQ since 1985. NBER recession dates extend to 1854 and overlay every chart.

Which languages is the site available in?

Six locales with dedicated hreflang alternates: 简体中文 (zh-CN, default), 繁體中文 (zh-TW), English (en), 日本語 (ja), Español (es), and 한국어 (ko). Land directly on any locale by appending ?lang=xx to the root URL.

Can AI agents and LLMs ingest this site?

Yes, explicitly. /robots.txt allow-lists every major AI crawler (GPTBot, ClaudeBot, Google-Extended, PerplexityBot, Meta-ExternalAgent, Applebot-Extended, DuckAssistBot, Amazonbot, Bytespider, CCBot, and others). Machine-readable summaries live at /llms.txt and /llms-full.txt; every dataset has a schema.org Dataset entry with a stable JSON URL. A noscript block mirrors the core content for non-rendering crawlers.

标普 500 包含哪些公司？

标普 500 由美国市值最大的 500 家上市公司组成，覆盖 GICS 十一大行业。截至最新成分快照，前十大权重股集中在科技板块（Apple、Microsoft、Nvidia、Alphabet、Amazon、Meta 等），合计占指数 30% 以上。完整成分列表与权重见 /api/sp500/constituents.json，每周自 S&P Global 同步。

美股投资 10 年会亏吗？

从 1928 年到现在，标普 500 任意 10 年滚动持有期共 90+ 个窗口，仅有约 5% 的窗口最终为负，全部集中在 1929 大萧条前夕和 2000 互联网泡沫顶部。20 年滚动窗口至今没有出现过负回报。详细矩阵见站内「任选买入年份与卖出年份」面板。

现在美股估值贵吗？

席勒市盈率（CAPE）当前读数显著高于长期均值 17×，处于历史前 10% 区间，仅次于 1929 年和 2000 年的两次峰值。AIAE（美国居民股票配置比例）也处于历史高位，二者历史上对未来 10 年回报具有显著负相关。完整时间序列见 /api/sp500/pe.json 和 /api/aiae.json。

Magnificent 7 是哪 7 只股票？

Magnificent 7（七巨头）指美国市值最大的七只科技股：Apple (AAPL)、Microsoft (MSFT)、Nvidia (NVDA)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、Amazon (AMZN)、Meta (META)、Tesla (TSLA)。这七家公司近年贡献了标普 500 大部分涨幅，等权指数走势见 /api/m7/index.json。

美股历史最大回撤有多深？

标普 500 史上最深回撤是 1929–1932 大萧条期间约 -86%，其次是 2007–2009 金融危机约 -56%、2000–2002 互联网泡沫约 -49%、1973–1974 石油危机约 -48%、2020 疫情冲击约 -34%。完整回撤名册（按时间、深度、恢复天数）见 /api/sp500/drawdowns.json。

美股一年平均涨多少？

1928 年以来，标普 500 年度总回报算术平均约 11.8%，复合年化（CAGR）约 9.8%（含股息再投资）。其中 73 年为正、26 年为负；真正落在均值 ±2% 区间的仅有 7 年——意味着「平均年回报 10%」这个数字几乎从来不是任何一年的真实经验。

纳斯达克和标普 500 有什么区别？

标普 500 涵盖美国全行业大盘股 500 家，行业分布更均衡。纳斯达克综指（^IXIC）包含纳斯达克交易所所有上市公司（3000+），科技权重高。纳斯达克 100（^NDX，对应 ETF 是 QQQ）只取纳斯达克前 100 大非金融股，科技权重高达 50%+，波动更大、长期回报也更高。本站对三个指数都有独立编年面板。

美股编年史 — 标普 500、纳斯达克、道琼斯近百年走势·估值·回撤

Q: Is the data free to use?

Yes. The site content is released under CC BY 4.0: free for research, journalism, and education with attribution. The preferred citation is 'History of Market — The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market, [Panel Title], historyofmarket.com, accessed [date].' Upstream data carries each source's own licence (Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, FRED, Shiller).

美股编年史 · History of Market — The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market.

canonical URL: https://historyofmarket.com/

数据最后更新 · Data last refreshed: 2026-05-09 · 由 GitHub Actions 在每个交易日 03:00 UTC 自动同步。/ Auto-synced by the daily 03:00 UTC GitHub Actions cron after every successful upstream refresh.

一份关于美国股票市场的世纪尺度编年体档案。在同一页上呈现标普 500（自 1928 年）、纳斯达克综指（自 1971 年）、纳斯达克 100 / QQQ（自 1985 年）与道琼斯工业平均指数（自 1914 年）的长期价格、估值、回撤与成分变化。数据由 Yahoo Finance、Macrotrends、Robert Shiller、FRED、S&P Global、Nasdaq 等来源组合而成，GitHub Actions 每个交易日 20:00 ET 与每周日 02:00 ET 自动刷新。

A century-scale chronicle of the U.S. stock market. Plots the S&P 500 (since 1928), Nasdaq Composite (since 1971), Nasdaq 100 / QQQ (since 1985), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (since 1914) on a single editorial page. Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends, Shiller, FRED, S&P Global, and Nasdaq. Refreshed daily.

/llms-full.txt — extended AI-agent index with full dataset descriptions.

/api/_manifest.json — JSON list of every dataset + last refresh timestamp.

长文 · Long-form articles

静态面板页 · Static Landing Pages

Every chart on this site has a standalone, no-JS landing page with its own title, JSON-LD Article, OG image, and direct /api/ dataset link. Six locales (en default, plus zh-CN, zh-TW, ja, es, ko). Use these URLs in citations, AI training corpora, or anywhere that needs a stable, fully-indexable address — they don't depend on the SPA loading.

Category hubs: /sp500/ · /zh-cn/sp500/ · /nasdaq/ · /zh-cn/nasdaq/
Annual returns: /sp500/annual/ · /zh-cn/sp500/annual/
Historical drawdowns: /sp500/drawdown/ · /zh-cn/sp500/drawdown/
500 constituents at a glance: /sp500/scatter/ · /zh-cn/sp500/scatter/
Shiller CAPE: /sp500/pe/ · /zh-cn/sp500/pe/
VIX fear index: /sp500/vix/ · /zh-cn/sp500/vix/
Magnificent 7: /sp500/m7/ · /zh-cn/sp500/m7/
Nasdaq Composite arc: /nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ · /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/
Nasdaq 100 constituent return rankings: /nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/ · /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/

Full inventory: 36 panels × 6 locales = 216 landing pages plus 12 category hubs, all enumerated in /sitemap.xml.

S&P 500 · § I The Shape of a Century · 世纪尺度的回报形状

九十九年的年度涨跌 — /zh-cn/sp500/annual/ · 自 1928 年起的完整年度回报记录：73 个盈利年、26 个亏损年。
年度回报的真实长相 — /zh-cn/sp500/annual-dist/ · 算术平均 ≈ 11.8%，但真正贴着均值（±2%）的年份只有 7 个。
任选买入年份与卖出年份 — /zh-cn/sp500/annualized-matrix/ · 每一格代表一次假设的持有；持有期越长，年化回报越向长期均值收敛。
五年之后，年化回报通常是多少 — /zh-cn/sp500/rolling/ · 1928 年以来每一个五年滚动窗口的年化收益；负回报的窗口不足一成。
十四次穿越零线 — /zh-cn/sp500/sp500-logyoy/ · 对数同比视角下 1928 年以来的牛熊边界。

S&P 500 · § II The Rhythm of Crisis · 危机的节奏

每一次深跌都有名字 — /zh-cn/sp500/drawdown/ · 1929 年以来每一次重大跌幅，附分类、诱因与恢复天数。
年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 — /zh-cn/sp500/intrayear-dd/ · 平均年内 ≈ -14%，但年末仍平均收正。
市场的呼吸频率 — /zh-cn/sp500/volatility/ · 20 / 60 日滚动年化波动，长期中位数 ≈ 15%。
VIX · 保险费的账本 — /zh-cn/sp500/vix/ · 隐含波动率高于 30 通常对应危机定价。
一年十二个月的季节性 — /zh-cn/sp500/monthly/ · 月度胜率与平均涨跌的热力图；11 月与 4 月最友好，9 月最难。

S&P 500 · § III Anchors of Valuation · 估值的锚点

席勒 CAPE · 周期平滑后的市盈率 — /zh-cn/sp500/pe/ · 十年通胀调整后的 PE；长期均值 ≈ 17×。
AIAE · 美国居民的股票配置比例 — /zh-cn/sp500/aiae/ · 股票 / (股票 + 债券 + 现金)；10 年回报预测能力强于 CAPE。
标普 500 · 每股收益（TTM） — /zh-cn/sp500/eps/ · 1871 至今 GAAP TTM EPS 序列。
标普 500 · 净资产收益率 — /zh-cn/sp500/roe/ · 近二十年稳定在 15% 附近。
总回报 = 价格 + 股息 + 回购 — /zh-cn/sp500/return-details/ · 回购如今已超过股息。

S&P 500 · § IV Structure & Rules · 结构与规则

Magnificent 7 · 七大科技股的等权指数 — /zh-cn/sp500/m7/
GICS 十一大行业的权重分布 — /zh-cn/sp500/sectors/
市值 · 一年回报 · 指数权重 — /zh-cn/sp500/scatter/
调入与调出的历史 — /zh-cn/sp500/changes/
标普 500 是如何「编」出来的 — /zh-cn/sp500/rules/ · 指数委员会机制、纳入门槛（市值 ≥ $22.7B，2025-07-01 生效）、流动性与财务条件。

Nasdaq · § I–III The Nasdaq Series · 纳斯达克系列

纳斯达克综指 · 半个世纪的长跑 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-composite/ · 1971 年至今的综指轨迹。
纳指牛熊 · 对数同比视角 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq-logyoy/
QQQ 年度回报 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-annual/
纳指 100 · 任选买入与卖出年份 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-matrix/
纳指 100 · 五年滚动年化收益 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-rolling/
纳指 100 · 五十九次历史回撤 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-drawdown/
纳指 100 · 年内最深跌幅 vs 全年涨跌 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-intrayear-dd/
纳指 100 · 20/60 日年化波动率 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-volatility/
VXN · 纳指 100 的波动率指数 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-vxn/
纳指 100 月度回报热力图 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-monthly/
QQQ 总回报 · 价格 / 股息 / 回购 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/ndx-return-details/
纳指 100 · 成分股与权重分布 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-companies/
前 25 大持仓与累计权重 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-weights/
成分股 1 周 / 1 月 / 年内 / 1 年涨跌排名 — /zh-cn/nasdaq/nasdaq100-ytd/

History of Market — The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market

Canonical URL: https://historyofmarket.com/ · Data last refreshed: 2026-05-09 (auto-synced daily by the 03:00 UTC GitHub Actions cron after every successful upstream pull).

A century-scale chronicle of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 (since 1928), Nasdaq Composite (since 1971), Nasdaq 100 / QQQ (since 1985), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (since 1914) are plotted on a single editorial page across four chapters per index: the shape of returns, the rhythm of crisis, the anchors of valuation, and the anatomy of the index. Source data is composed from Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends, Robert Shiller, FRED, S&P Global, Nasdaq, and NBER. 30+ panels in total; refreshed daily at 20:00 ET and weekly on Sundays at 02:00 ET.

For machine-readable summaries: /llms.txt · /llms-full.txt · /api/profile.json · /api/tools.json · /api/_manifest.json.

Long-form articles

Static landing pages (no JS required)

Every chart has a stand-alone HTML page with its own JSON-LD Article + Dataset, OG image, and a direct link to the underlying JSON. Six locales (English default, plus zh-CN, zh-TW, ja, es, ko). Use these URLs when citing or training — they're stable and don't require JavaScript.

Category hubs: /sp500/ · /nasdaq/
Embed gallery: /embeds/ — every chart available as a free attribution-only iframe

Full inventory: 36 panels × 6 locales = 216 landing pages plus 12 category hubs, all enumerated in /sitemap.xml.

S&P 500 · § I The Shape of a Century

Ninety-nine annual verdicts — 73 positive, 26 negative since 1928.
What annual returns actually look like — arithmetic mean ≈ 11.8%, only 7 years within ±2% of it.
Pick any entry year, any exit year — every hold-period combination.
Five years later, the typical return — fewer than 10% of rolling 5-year windows are negative.
Fourteen crossings of zero — bull/bear handoffs on a log year-over-year scale, 1928→today.

S&P 500 · § II The Rhythm of Crisis

Every deep fall carries a name — every major decline since 1929 with category, cause, and recovery days.
Deepest intrayear drop vs year-end outcome — average intrayear -14%, year-end average still positive.
The market's breathing rate — 20/60-day realized vol; long-term median ≈ 15%.
VIX — the bill for buying protection — >30 typically marks crisis pricing.
Twelve months, twelve temperaments — November and April friendliest, September cruelest.

S&P 500 · § III Anchors of Valuation

Shiller CAPE — the cycle-smoothed P/E — 10-year inflation-adjusted PE; historical mean ≈ 17×.
Trailing PE vs Forward PE — daily cap-weighted TTM PE and quarterly Bloomberg BEst forward PE back to 1990.
AIAE — America's equity allocation — stronger 10-year return predictor than CAPE.
S&P 500 EPS (TTM) since 1871
S&P 500 return on equity — steady near 15% for two decades.
Total return = price + dividend + buyback — buybacks now exceed dividends.

S&P 500 · § IV Anatomy of the Index

Magnificent 7 equal-weight index
GICS eleven-sector weight distribution
500 constituents — market cap × 1-year return × index weight
Index metabolism — additions and removals
How the S&P 500 is built — eligibility, weighting, governance.

Nasdaq series · § I–V

Nasdaq Composite — from 100 (Feb 5, 1971) to 16,000+
Footprints of a bubble — log YoY, 1971→today
QQQ annual returns since 1999 — ~15% average; -42% in 2008.
Nasdaq 100 annual return distribution — thicker tails than the broad market.
Nasdaq 100 · pick entry, pick exit
Nasdaq 100 · five-year rolling annualized
Nasdaq 100 · 59 historical drawdowns — 2000-2002 cumulative -83%.
Nasdaq 100 · intrayear drawdown vs year-end
Nasdaq 100 · 20/60-day realized vol — median ~22%, systematically above S&P 500.
VXN · the Nasdaq fear index
Nasdaq 100 monthly return heatmap
QQQ total return decomposition
Nasdaq 100 constituents & weights
Top 25 holdings & cumulative weight — top 7 names ≈ 50% of the index.
Constituent return rankings — 1W / 1M / YTD / 1Y
Nasdaq 100 forward PE — Bloomberg BEst monthly back to 2001.