History of Market · The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market S&P 500
Gathering I · leaf 3 of 27
S&P 500 · Return Distribution

S&P 500 · Return Distribution — The Distribution of Annual Returns

Return Distribution — Histogram of full-year total returns, revealing the pronounced fat-tailed nature of equity returns over conventional bell curves.

S&P 500 total annual returns (dividends reinvested) binned into eleven return intervals since 1928. While the arithmetic mean is roughly 12%, individual years rarely land near the average, reflecting the distinctly fat-tailed distribution of market returns.

View the interactive chart Download raw JSON

What this page answers

This static page is built to answer searches for S&P 500 · Return Distribution. It summarizes the live dataset behind the The Distribution of Annual Returns panel and links to the full interactive chart.

S&P 500 total annual returns (dividends reinvested) binned into eleven return intervals since 1928. While the arithmetic mean is roughly 12%, individual years rarely land near the average, reflecting the distinctly fat-tailed distribution of market returns. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

The plate

S&P 500 · Return Distribution — The Distribution of Annual Returns01020-40%-20%0%20%40%60%
Plate I.3 S&P 500 total annual returns (dividends reinvested) binned into eleven return intervals since 1928. While the arithmetic mean is roughly 12%, individual years rarely land near the average, reflecting the distinctly fat-tailed distribution of market returns. 2026-09-05

Latest Snapshot

Updated
2026-09-05
Latest value
7,718.62026-09-04
CAGR
+6.37%
Sample
1928-01-31 – 2026-09-04
Observations
1,185
Sample
1928-01-31 – 2026-09-04

Data & Source

GET /api/sp500/century.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

FAQ

Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.