S&P 500 · Return Decomposition (TTM) — Was it a multiple year or an earnings year?
Return attribution — Each year's move split into valuation change vs. earnings change.
Every year's price return from 1928 onward, split into two pieces — change in TTM PE multiple and change in TTM EPS (Shiller basis). Same-sign years with one side dominant are labelled 'multiple-driven' or 'EPS-driven'; balanced same-sign years are 'both'; opposite-sign years are 'fighting'. Stacked bars above, sortable table below. The textbook years — 2008-2009, 2020, 2023-2024 — pop out immediately.
What this page answers
Decomposing by the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 98 years of the S&P 500 split into 17 valuation-driven, 13 EPS-driven, and 5 both-engines years, with the remainder offsetting. Over the long run earnings carry the return; valuation sets each year's temper.
Every year's price return from 1928 onward, split into two pieces — change in TTM PE multiple and change in TTM EPS (Shiller basis). Same-sign years with one side dominant are labelled 'multiple-driven' or 'EPS-driven'; balanced same-sign years are 'both'; opposite-sign years are 'fighting'. Stacked bars above, sortable table below. The textbook years — 2008-2009, 2020, 2023-2024 — pop out immediately. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.
The plate
Latest Snapshot
- Updated
- 2026-08-14
- Observations
- 98
- Observations
- 98
- Sample
- 1928 – 2025
S&P 500 — year-by-year valuation × EPS decomposition
| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.4% | +2.3% | +11.5% | EPS-driven |
| 2024 | +23.3% | +17.5% | +6.2% | valuation-driven |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +7.5% | +7.8% | both |
| 2022 | -19.4% | -4.2% | -18.0% | EPS-driven |
| 2021 | +26.9% | -39.8% | +96.4% | EPS drag |
| 2020 | +16.3% | +72.3% | -33.4% | valuation drag |
| 2019 | +28.9% | +17.5% | +3.0% | valuation-driven |
| 2018 | -6.2% | -20.0% | +18.2% | valuation drag |
| 2017 | +19.4% | +2.1% | +13.8% | EPS-driven |
| 2016 | +9.5% | +0.1% | +7.0% | EPS-driven |
| 2015 | -0.7% | +18.2% | -16.0% | valuation drag |
| 2014 | +11.4% | +11.3% | +1.3% | valuation-driven |
| 2013 | +29.6% | +9.7% | +14.1% | both |
| 2012 | +13.4% | +15.0% | -2.2% | valuation drag |
| 2011 | -0.0% | -10.9% | +9.2% | valuation drag |
| 2010 | +12.8% | -26.3% | +49.5% | EPS drag |
| 2009 | +23.5% | -63.1% | +233.4% | EPS drag |
| 2008 | -38.5% | +163.9% | -77.5% | valuation drag |
| 2007 | +3.5% | +28.6% | -22.0% | valuation drag |
| 2006 | +13.6% | -3.8% | +13.8% | EPS drag |
| 2005 | +3.0% | -11.8% | +15.3% | EPS drag |
| 2004 | +9.0% | -7.6% | +16.3% | EPS drag |
| 2003 | +26.4% | -32.0% | +73.4% | EPS drag |
| 2002 | -23.4% | -29.7% | +9.2% | valuation drag |
| 2001 | -13.0% | +74.2% | -51.4% | valuation drag |
| 2000 | -10.1% | -10.3% | +0.4% | valuation-driven |
| 1999 | +19.5% | -6.0% | +24.4% | EPS drag |
| 1998 | +26.7% | +30.3% | -6.6% | valuation drag |
| 1997 | +31.0% | +26.3% | +0.9% | valuation-driven |
| 1996 | +20.3% | +6.0% | +10.4% | EPS-driven |
| 1995 | +34.1% | +21.6% | +8.2% | valuation-driven |
| 1994 | -1.5% | -30.1% | +36.1% | EPS drag |
| 1993 | +7.1% | -6.7% | +11.6% | EPS drag |
| 1992 | +4.5% | -6.2% | +16.2% | EPS drag |
| 1991 | +26.3% | +57.9% | -27.4% | valuation drag |
| 1990 | -6.6% | +1.1% | -12.1% | EPS-driven |
| 1989 | +27.3% | +30.9% | -8.0% | valuation drag |
| 1988 | +12.4% | -15.5% | +30.0% | EPS drag |
| 1987 | +2.0% | -19.8% | +15.7% | valuation drag |
| 1986 | +14.6% | +21.0% | -2.0% | valuation-driven |
| 1985 | +26.3% | +43.5% | -15.4% | valuation drag |
| 1984 | +1.4% | -15.6% | +14.1% | valuation drag |
| 1983 | +17.3% | +6.3% | +6.9% | both |
| 1982 | +14.8% | +36.9% | -20.7% | valuation drag |
| 1981 | -9.7% | -10.5% | -4.9% | valuation-driven |
| 1980 | +25.8% | +24.3% | -11.4% | valuation drag |
| 1979 | +12.3% | -6.9% | +6.4% | valuation drag |
| 1978 | +1.1% | -9.6% | +3.9% | valuation drag |
| 1977 | -11.5% | -18.5% | +3.0% | valuation drag |
| 1976 | +19.2% | -5.1% | +18.7% | EPS drag |
| 1975 | +31.6% | +47.8% | -16.3% | valuation drag |
| 1974 | -29.7% | -35.1% | -3.0% | valuation-driven |
| 1973 | -17.4% | -36.5% | +16.9% | valuation drag |
| 1972 | +15.6% | +5.2% | +8.9% | EPS-driven |
| 1971 | +10.8% | -0.9% | +7.6% | EPS-driven |
| 1970 | +0.1% | +11.4% | -15.9% | EPS drag |
| 1969 | -11.4% | -14.8% | -5.5% | valuation-driven |
| 1968 | +7.7% | +3.4% | +3.2% | both |
| 1967 | +20.1% | +22.1% | -6.8% | valuation drag |
| 1966 | -13.1% | -17.1% | +3.4% | valuation drag |
| 1965 | +9.1% | -4.2% | +11.9% | EPS drag |
| 1964 | +13.0% | 0.0% | +12.1% | EPS-driven |
| 1963 | +18.9% | +8.1% | +7.8% | both |
| 1962 | -11.8% | -24.1% | +13.6% | valuation drag |
| 1961 | +23.1% | +29.5% | -3.1% | valuation drag |
| 1960 | -3.0% | -0.3% | -4.8% | EPS-driven |
| 1959 | +8.5% | -5.9% | +15.3% | EPS drag |
| 1958 | +38.1% | +54.6% | -15.7% | valuation drag |
| 1957 | -14.3% | -12.1% | -4.0% | valuation-driven |
| 1956 | +2.6% | +8.7% | -8.5% | valuation drag |
| 1955 | +26.4% | -0.7% | +30.2% | EPS-driven |
| 1954 | +45.0% | +27.6% | +11.2% | valuation-driven |
| 1953 | -6.6% | -8.9% | +3.8% | valuation drag |
| 1952 | +11.8% | +13.1% | -2.4% | valuation drag |
| 1951 | +16.4% | +38.0% | -19.0% | valuation drag |
| 1950 | +21.7% | -2.5% | +15.6% | EPS drag |
| 1949 | +10.5% | +7.5% | +3.5% | valuation-driven |
| 1948 | -0.7% | -29.0% | +38.1% | EPS drag |
| 1947 | 0.0% | -34.6% | +39.6% | EPS drag |
| 1946 | -11.9% | -20.9% | -6.6% | valuation-driven |
| 1945 | +30.7% | +28.1% | +1.0% | valuation-driven |
| 1944 | +13.8% | +15.4% | -3.3% | valuation drag |
| 1943 | +19.5% | +32.1% | -11.4% | valuation drag |
| 1942 | +12.4% | +22.4% | -18.6% | valuation drag |
| 1941 | -17.9% | -24.7% | +0.5% | valuation-driven |
| 1940 | -15.1% | -27.0% | +15.8% | valuation drag |
| 1939 | -5.2% | -30.7% | +40.6% | EPS drag |
| 1938 | +24.6% | +103.4% | -41.7% | valuation drag |
| 1937 | -38.6% | -41.7% | +7.7% | valuation drag |
| 1936 | +27.9% | -2.5% | +32.3% | EPS drag |
| 1935 | +41.4% | -9.2% | +50.6% | EPS drag |
| 1934 | -4.7% | -16.6% | +9.7% | valuation drag |
| 1933 | +44.1% | +36.3% | +6.5% | valuation-driven |
| 1932 | -14.8% | +20.2% | -25.1% | EPS drag |
| 1931 | -47.1% | -13.5% | -30.7% | EPS-driven |
| 1930 | -28.5% | +20.3% | -35.6% | EPS drag |
| 1929 | -11.9% | -20.8% | +16.0% | valuation drag |
| 1928 | +37.9% | +6.7% | +25.8% | EPS-driven |
Showing the full record (98 rows). Raw series: https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json
Data & Source
GET /api/sp500/driver-decomp.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.
Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
FAQ
Where does this data come from?
History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.
How often is it updated?
Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.
Can I use the data?
Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.