S&P 500 · Return Decomposition (TTM) — Return Decomposition: Valuation Rerating vs. Earnings Growth
Valuation vs EPS Return Drivers — Mathematical decomposition of annual price returns into valuation multiple rerating versus underlying EPS expansion.
Decomposes annual S&P 500 price returns since 1928 into multiple expansion and trailing EPS growth. Categorizes market outcomes into valuation-driven, earnings-driven, dual-engine, or offsetting regimes, clarifying the fundamental mechanics behind historical bull and bear runs.
What this page answers
Decomposing historical performance via the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 98 years of the S&P 500 encompass 17 valuation-led years, 13 earnings-driven years, and 5 dual-expansion years, with the remainder partially offsetting. Over multi-year horizons, structural earnings expansion powers capital appreciation; valuation multiple volatility dictates single-year sentiment and dispersion.
Decomposes annual S&P 500 price returns since 1928 into multiple expansion and trailing EPS growth. Categorizes market outcomes into valuation-driven, earnings-driven, dual-engine, or offsetting regimes, clarifying the fundamental mechanics behind historical bull and bear runs. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.
The plate
Latest Snapshot
- Updated
- 2026-09-08
- Observations
- 98
- Observations
- 98
- Sample
- 1928 – 2025
S&P 500 — calendar year valuation multiple vs earnings per share attribution
| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.4% | +2.3% | +11.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2024 | +23.3% | +17.5% | +6.2% | valuation-led |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +7.5% | +7.8% | dual expansion |
| 2022 | -19.4% | -4.2% | -18.0% | earnings-driven |
| 2021 | +26.9% | -39.8% | +96.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2020 | +16.3% | +72.3% | -33.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 2019 | +28.9% | +17.5% | +3.0% | valuation-led |
| 2018 | -6.2% | -20.0% | +18.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2017 | +19.4% | +2.1% | +13.8% | earnings-driven |
| 2016 | +9.5% | +0.1% | +7.0% | earnings-driven |
| 2015 | -0.7% | +18.2% | -16.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 2014 | +11.4% | +11.3% | +1.3% | valuation-led |
| 2013 | +29.6% | +9.7% | +14.1% | dual expansion |
| 2012 | +13.4% | +15.0% | -2.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2011 | -0.0% | -10.9% | +9.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2010 | +12.8% | -26.3% | +49.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2009 | +23.5% | -63.1% | +233.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2008 | -38.5% | +163.9% | -77.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 2007 | +3.5% | +28.6% | -22.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 2006 | +13.6% | -3.8% | +13.8% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2005 | +3.0% | -11.8% | +15.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2004 | +9.0% | -7.6% | +16.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2003 | +26.4% | -32.0% | +73.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2002 | -23.4% | -29.7% | +9.2% | multiple compression drag |
| 2001 | -13.0% | +74.2% | -51.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 2000 | -10.1% | -10.3% | +0.4% | valuation-led |
| 1999 | +19.5% | -6.0% | +24.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1998 | +26.7% | +30.3% | -6.6% | multiple compression drag |
| 1997 | +31.0% | +26.3% | +0.9% | valuation-led |
| 1996 | +20.3% | +6.0% | +10.4% | earnings-driven |
| 1995 | +34.1% | +21.6% | +8.2% | valuation-led |
| 1994 | -1.5% | -30.1% | +36.2% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1993 | +7.1% | -6.7% | +11.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1992 | +4.5% | -6.2% | +16.2% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1991 | +26.3% | +57.9% | -27.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1990 | -6.6% | +1.1% | -12.0% | earnings-driven |
| 1989 | +27.3% | +30.9% | -8.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1988 | +12.4% | -15.5% | +30.0% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1987 | +2.0% | -19.8% | +15.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1986 | +14.6% | +21.0% | -2.0% | valuation-led |
| 1985 | +26.3% | +43.5% | -15.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1984 | +1.4% | -15.6% | +14.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 1983 | +17.3% | +6.3% | +6.9% | dual expansion |
| 1982 | +14.8% | +36.9% | -20.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1981 | -9.7% | -10.5% | -4.9% | valuation-led |
| 1980 | +25.8% | +24.3% | -11.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1979 | +12.3% | -6.9% | +6.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1978 | +1.1% | -9.6% | +3.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1977 | -11.5% | -18.5% | +3.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1976 | +19.2% | -5.1% | +18.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1975 | +31.6% | +47.8% | -16.3% | multiple compression drag |
| 1974 | -29.7% | -35.1% | -3.0% | valuation-led |
| 1973 | -17.4% | -36.5% | +16.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1972 | +15.6% | +5.2% | +8.9% | earnings-driven |
| 1971 | +10.8% | -0.9% | +7.6% | earnings-driven |
| 1970 | +0.1% | +11.4% | -15.9% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1969 | -11.4% | -14.8% | -5.5% | valuation-led |
| 1968 | +7.7% | +3.4% | +3.2% | dual expansion |
| 1967 | +20.1% | +22.1% | -6.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1966 | -13.1% | -17.1% | +3.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1965 | +9.1% | -4.2% | +11.9% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1964 | +13.0% | 0.0% | +12.1% | earnings-driven |
| 1963 | +18.9% | +8.1% | +7.8% | dual expansion |
| 1962 | -11.8% | -24.1% | +13.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 1961 | +23.1% | +29.5% | -3.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 1960 | -3.0% | -0.3% | -4.8% | earnings-driven |
| 1959 | +8.5% | -5.9% | +15.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1958 | +38.1% | +54.6% | -15.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1957 | -14.3% | -12.1% | -4.0% | valuation-led |
| 1956 | +2.6% | +8.7% | -8.5% | multiple compression drag |
| 1955 | +26.4% | -0.7% | +30.2% | earnings-driven |
| 1954 | +45.0% | +27.6% | +11.2% | valuation-led |
| 1953 | -6.6% | -8.9% | +3.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1952 | +11.8% | +13.1% | -2.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1951 | +16.4% | +38.0% | -18.9% | multiple compression drag |
| 1950 | +21.7% | -2.5% | +15.5% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1949 | +10.5% | +7.5% | +3.5% | valuation-led |
| 1948 | -0.7% | -29.0% | +38.1% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1947 | 0.0% | -34.6% | +39.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1946 | -11.9% | -20.9% | -6.5% | valuation-led |
| 1945 | +30.7% | +28.1% | +0.9% | valuation-led |
| 1944 | +13.8% | +15.4% | -3.3% | multiple compression drag |
| 1943 | +19.5% | +32.1% | -11.4% | multiple compression drag |
| 1942 | +12.4% | +22.4% | -18.6% | multiple compression drag |
| 1941 | -17.9% | -24.7% | +0.5% | valuation-led |
| 1940 | -15.1% | -27.0% | +15.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1939 | -5.2% | -30.7% | +40.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1938 | +24.6% | +103.4% | -41.8% | multiple compression drag |
| 1937 | -38.6% | -41.7% | +7.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1936 | +27.9% | -2.5% | +32.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1935 | +41.4% | -9.2% | +50.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1934 | -4.7% | -16.6% | +9.7% | multiple compression drag |
| 1933 | +44.1% | +36.3% | +6.5% | valuation-led |
| 1932 | -14.8% | +20.2% | -25.1% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1931 | -47.1% | -13.5% | -30.7% | earnings-driven |
| 1930 | -28.5% | +20.3% | -35.6% | earnings contraction drag |
| 1929 | -11.9% | -20.8% | +16.0% | multiple compression drag |
| 1928 | +37.9% | +6.7% | +25.8% | earnings-driven |
Complete record (98 rows). Raw dataset: https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json
Data & Source
GET /api/sp500/driver-decomp.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.
Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
FAQ
Where does this data come from?
History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.
How often is it updated?
Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.
Can I use the data?
Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.