Nasdaq 100 · Return Decomposition (Forward) — Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revision
Return attribution — NDX moves split into rerating vs. estimate revision.
NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; the terminal forward PE series goes back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'.
What this page answers
Decomposing by the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 22 years of the Nasdaq 100 split into 6 valuation-driven, 8 EPS-driven, and 1 both-engines years, with the remainder offsetting. Over the long run earnings carry the return; valuation sets each year's temper.
NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; the terminal forward PE series goes back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.
The plate
Latest Snapshot
- Updated
- 2026-08-14
- Observations
- 22
- Observations
- 22
- Sample
- 2002 – 2025
Nasdaq 100 — year-by-year valuation × EPS decomposition
| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +20.2% | -4.5% | +25.8% | EPS drag |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +7.5% | +16.2% | EPS-driven |
| 2023 | +53.8% | +23.3% | +24.7% | both |
| 2022 | -33.0% | -29.2% | -5.3% | valuation-driven |
| 2021 | +26.6% | -1.5% | +28.5% | EPS-driven |
| 2020 | +47.6% | +31.1% | +12.6% | valuation-driven |
| 2019 | +38.0% | +32.5% | +4.2% | valuation-driven |
| 2018 | -1.0% | -15.4% | +17.0% | EPS drag |
| 2017 | +31.5% | +9.7% | +19.9% | EPS-driven |
| 2016 | +5.9% | -2.2% | +8.3% | EPS drag |
| 2015 | +8.4% | +2.9% | +5.4% | EPS-driven |
| 2014 | +17.9% | 0.0% | +17.9% | EPS-driven |
| 2013 | +35.0% | +37.9% | -2.1% | valuation drag |
| 2012 | +16.8% | +5.3% | +10.9% | EPS-driven |
| 2011 | +2.7% | -20.2% | +28.7% | EPS drag |
| 2010 | +19.2% | -13.8% | +38.4% | EPS drag |
| 2009 | +53.5% | +33.8% | +14.8% | valuation-driven |
| 2008 | -41.9% | -39.4% | -4.2% | valuation-driven |
| 2007 | +18.7% | -1.5% | +20.5% | EPS-driven |
| 2004 | +10.4% | +11.9% | -1.3% | valuation-driven |
| 2003 | +49.1% | +1.5% | +46.9% | EPS-driven |
| 2002 | -37.6% | -46.6% | +16.9% | valuation drag |
Showing the full record (22 rows). Raw series: https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json
Data & Source
GET /api/ndx/driver-decomp.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.
Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
FAQ
Where does this data come from?
History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.
How often is it updated?
Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.
Can I use the data?
Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.