Nasdaq 100 · Rerating × Revision
Nasdaq 100 Return Drivers — Decomposition of annual returns into fundamental earnings growth versus valuation multiple expansion.
The plate
Latest Snapshot
- Data file updated
- 2026-09-29
- Observations
- 22
- Sample
- 2002 – 2025
NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; the terminal forward PE series goes back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'.
What this page answers
Decomposing historical performance via the identity (1+price return) = (1+PE change) × (1+EPS change), the 22 years of the Nasdaq 100 encompass 6 valuation-led years, 8 earnings-driven years, and 1 dual-expansion years, with the remainder partially offsetting. Over multi-year horizons, structural earnings expansion powers capital appreciation; valuation multiple volatility dictates single-year sentiment and dispersion.
NDX has no clean trailing TTM PE history; the terminal forward PE series goes back to 2001. So this table decomposes returns as 'forward-PE rerating + forward-EPS revision'. The multiple piece says how the market's appetite for next year's earnings moved; the EPS piece says how analysts revised those next-year estimates. Note the basis differs from the SP500 table — read this one as 'sentiment + consensus revisions', not 'today's earnings'. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.
Nasdaq 100 — calendar year valuation multiple vs earnings per share attribution
| Year | Price return | PE change | EPS change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +20.2% | -4.5% | +25.8% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +7.5% | +16.2% | earnings-driven |
| 2023 | +53.8% | +23.3% | +24.7% | dual expansion |
| 2022 | -33.0% | -29.2% | -5.3% | valuation-led |
| 2021 | +26.6% | -1.5% | +28.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2020 | +47.6% | +31.1% | +12.6% | valuation-led |
| 2019 | +38.0% | +32.5% | +4.2% | valuation-led |
| 2018 | -1.0% | -15.4% | +17.0% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2017 | +31.5% | +9.7% | +19.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2016 | +5.9% | -2.2% | +8.3% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2015 | +8.4% | +2.9% | +5.4% | earnings-driven |
| 2014 | +17.9% | 0.0% | +17.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2013 | +35.0% | +37.9% | -2.1% | multiple compression drag |
| 2012 | +16.8% | +5.3% | +10.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2011 | +2.7% | -20.2% | +28.7% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2010 | +19.2% | -13.8% | +38.4% | earnings contraction drag |
| 2009 | +53.5% | +33.8% | +14.8% | valuation-led |
| 2008 | -41.9% | -39.4% | -4.2% | valuation-led |
| 2007 | +18.7% | -1.5% | +20.5% | earnings-driven |
| 2004 | +10.4% | +11.9% | -1.3% | valuation-led |
| 2003 | +49.1% | +1.5% | +46.9% | earnings-driven |
| 2002 | -37.6% | -46.6% | +16.9% | multiple compression drag |
Complete record (22 rows). Raw dataset: https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json
Data & Source
GET /api/ndx/driver-decomp.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.
Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
FAQ
Where does this data come from?
History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.
How often is it updated?
Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.
Can I use the data?
Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.