History of Market · The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market S&P 500
Gathering I · leaf 11 of 27
AIAE · Investor Allocation

AIAE · Investor Allocation — AIAE: Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities

Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities — US household equity allocation as a share of financial assets: a macro barometer exhibiting superior 10-year forward predictive power to CAPE.

Equity market value divided by total financial assets (equities, bonds, and cash). In historical sample regressions predicting ten-year forward returns, AIAE demonstrates superior explanatory power to standard valuation multiples.

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What this page answers

The Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities (AIAE) stands at +46.8% (2026-01-01), placing it in the 98.7 percentile of its historical distribution (mean: +31.9%). Under historical regression modeling, this positioning implies a 10-year forward annualized expected return of roughly —. Historically, AIAE has demonstrated greater predictive power for 10-year forward returns than the Shiller CAPE.

Equity market value divided by total financial assets (equities, bonds, and cash). In historical sample regressions predicting ten-year forward returns, AIAE demonstrates superior explanatory power to standard valuation multiples. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

The plate

AIAE · Investor Allocation — AIAE: Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities20%30%40%1960198020002020
Plate I.11 Equity market value divided by total financial assets (equities, bonds, and cash). In historical sample regressions predicting ten-year forward returns, AIAE demonstrates superior explanatory power to standard valuation multiples. 2026-09-08

Latest Snapshot

Updated
2026-09-08
Latest value
+46.8%2026-01-01
Average
+31.9%
Observations
304
Sample
1945-10-01 – 2026-01-01

AIAE equity allocation and implied 10-year forward annualized returns (year-end)

AIAE equity allocation and implied 10-year forward annualized returns (year-end)
DateAIAEImplied 10y Ann.
2026-01-01+46.8%
2025-10-01+48.2%-3.5%
2024-10-01+45.8%-2.0%
2023-10-01+42.2%+0.2%
2022-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2021-10-01+45.6%-1.9%
2020-10-01+42.2%+0.3%
2019-10-01+39.6%+1.9%
2018-10-01+35.5%+4.4%
2017-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2016-10-01+36.0%+4.1%
2015-10-01+35.4%+4.4%
2014-10-01+37.1%+3.4%
2013-10-01+35.5%+4.4%
2012-10-01+30.6%+7.4%
2011-10-01+29.2%+8.3%
2010-10-01+30.1%+7.8%
2009-10-01+28.4%+8.9%
2008-10-01+25.0%+10.9%
2007-10-01+34.6%+4.9%
2006-10-01+35.2%+4.6%
2005-10-01+34.3%+5.1%
2004-10-01+34.9%+4.8%
2003-10-01+34.8%+4.9%
2002-10-01+31.1%+7.1%
2001-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2000-10-01+42.3%+0.2%
1999-10-01+46.8%-2.6%
1998-10-01+41.8%+0.5%
1997-10-01+37.8%+3.0%
1996-10-01+33.5%+5.7%
1995-10-01+31.7%+6.8%
1994-10-01+26.9%+9.8%
1993-10-01+28.1%+9.0%
1992-10-01+27.3%+9.5%
1991-10-01+26.6%+10.0%
1990-10-01+22.0%+12.8%
1989-10-01+24.4%+11.3%
1988-10-01+22.1%+12.8%
1987-10-01+21.7%+13.0%
1986-10-01+22.9%+12.3%
1985-10-01+22.1%+12.7%
1984-10-01+21.2%+13.3%
1983-10-01+24.5%+11.2%
1982-10-01+23.6%+11.8%
1981-10-01+23.1%+12.1%
1980-10-01+26.8%+9.8%
1979-10-01+23.2%+12.1%
1978-10-01+22.2%+12.7%
1977-10-01+23.6%+11.8%
1976-10-01+28.2%+8.9%
1975-10-01+26.3%+10.2%
1974-10-01+22.4%+12.6%
1973-10-01+31.2%+7.1%
1972-10-01+38.9%+2.3%
1971-10-01+35.7%+4.3%
1970-10-01+34.1%+5.3%
1969-10-01+35.7%+4.3%
1968-10-01+41.3%+0.8%
1967-10-01+38.9%+2.3%
1966-10-01+34.6%+5.0%
1965-10-01+39.0%+2.2%
1964-10-01+37.4%+3.2%
1963-10-01+35.3%+4.5%
1962-10-01+34.7%+4.9%
1961-10-01+36.8%+3.6%
1960-10-01+34.0%+5.4%
1959-10-01+34.8%+4.8%
1958-10-01+33.9%+5.4%
1957-10-01+29.2%+8.3%
1956-10-01+32.0%+6.6%
1955-10-01+30.9%+7.2%
1954-10-01+27.6%+9.3%
1953-10-01+22.9%+12.3%
1952-10-01+24.3%+11.4%
1951-10-01+25.8%+10.4%
1950-10-01+23.9%+11.6%
1949-10-01+21.5%+13.1%
1948-10-01+20.5%+13.8%
1947-10-01+21.2%+13.3%
1946-10-01+22.4%+12.6%
1945-10-01+23.0%+12.2%

Displaying the 82 most recent of 304 observations — complete series in JSON: https://historyofmarket.com/api/aiae.json

Data & Source

GET /api/aiae.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

FAQ

What is AIAE and what does its current level indicate?

AIAE measures the proportion of total household financial assets (equities + fixed income + cash) allocated to equities across the US economy. It currently stands at +46.8%, placing it in the 98.7 historical percentile.

Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.