History of Market · The Chronicle of the U.S. Stock Market S&P 500
Gathering I · leaf 11 of 27
AIAE · Investor Allocation

AIAE · Investor Allocation — AIAE — America's Equity Allocation

Investor equity allocation — How much of U.S. household wealth sits in stocks — beats CAPE at predicting ten-year returns.

Equity market value ÷ (equity + bonds + cash). As a predictor of ten-year forward returns, AIAE carries slightly more explanatory power than CAPE.

View the interactive chart Download raw JSON

What this page answers

AIAE (aggregate investor allocation to equities) currently reads +46.8% (2026-01-01), the 98.7 percentile of its history (mean +31.9%). By the historical regression, that implies roughly — annualized for the next ten years. AIAE has historically explained 10-year returns better than CAPE.

Equity market value ÷ (equity + bonds + cash). As a predictor of ten-year forward returns, AIAE carries slightly more explanatory power than CAPE. The data is refreshed by the History of Market pipeline and published as a stable JSON endpoint for research, citation, and AI-agent use.

The plate

AIAE · Investor Allocation — AIAE — America's Equity Allocation20%30%40%1960198020002020
Plate I.11 Equity market value ÷ (equity + bonds + cash). As a predictor of ten-year forward returns, AIAE carries slightly more explanatory power than CAPE. 2026-09-03

Latest Snapshot

Updated
2026-09-03
Latest value
+46.8%2026-01-01
Average
+31.9%
Observations
304
Sample
1945-10-01 – 2026-01-01

AIAE and implied 10-year annualized return (year-end readings)

AIAE and implied 10-year annualized return (year-end readings)
DateAIAEImplied 10y ann.
2026-01-01+46.8%
2025-10-01+48.2%-3.5%
2024-10-01+45.8%-2.0%
2023-10-01+42.2%+0.2%
2022-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2021-10-01+45.6%-1.9%
2020-10-01+42.2%+0.3%
2019-10-01+39.6%+1.9%
2018-10-01+35.5%+4.4%
2017-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2016-10-01+36.0%+4.1%
2015-10-01+35.4%+4.4%
2014-10-01+37.1%+3.4%
2013-10-01+35.5%+4.4%
2012-10-01+30.6%+7.4%
2011-10-01+29.2%+8.3%
2010-10-01+30.1%+7.8%
2009-10-01+28.4%+8.9%
2008-10-01+25.0%+10.9%
2007-10-01+34.6%+4.9%
2006-10-01+35.2%+4.6%
2005-10-01+34.3%+5.1%
2004-10-01+34.9%+4.8%
2003-10-01+34.8%+4.9%
2002-10-01+31.1%+7.1%
2001-10-01+38.4%+2.6%
2000-10-01+42.3%+0.2%
1999-10-01+46.8%-2.6%
1998-10-01+41.8%+0.5%
1997-10-01+37.8%+3.0%
1996-10-01+33.5%+5.7%
1995-10-01+31.7%+6.8%
1994-10-01+26.9%+9.8%
1993-10-01+28.1%+9.0%
1992-10-01+27.3%+9.5%
1991-10-01+26.6%+10.0%
1990-10-01+22.0%+12.8%
1989-10-01+24.4%+11.3%
1988-10-01+22.1%+12.8%
1987-10-01+21.7%+13.0%
1986-10-01+22.9%+12.3%
1985-10-01+22.1%+12.7%
1984-10-01+21.2%+13.3%
1983-10-01+24.5%+11.2%
1982-10-01+23.6%+11.8%
1981-10-01+23.1%+12.1%
1980-10-01+26.8%+9.8%
1979-10-01+23.2%+12.1%
1978-10-01+22.2%+12.7%
1977-10-01+23.6%+11.8%
1976-10-01+28.2%+8.9%
1975-10-01+26.3%+10.2%
1974-10-01+22.4%+12.6%
1973-10-01+31.2%+7.1%
1972-10-01+38.9%+2.3%
1971-10-01+35.7%+4.3%
1970-10-01+34.1%+5.3%
1969-10-01+35.7%+4.3%
1968-10-01+41.3%+0.8%
1967-10-01+38.9%+2.3%
1966-10-01+34.6%+5.0%
1965-10-01+39.0%+2.2%
1964-10-01+37.4%+3.2%
1963-10-01+35.3%+4.5%
1962-10-01+34.7%+4.9%
1961-10-01+36.8%+3.6%
1960-10-01+34.0%+5.4%
1959-10-01+34.8%+4.8%
1958-10-01+33.9%+5.4%
1957-10-01+29.2%+8.3%
1956-10-01+32.0%+6.6%
1955-10-01+30.9%+7.2%
1954-10-01+27.6%+9.3%
1953-10-01+22.9%+12.3%
1952-10-01+24.3%+11.4%
1951-10-01+25.8%+10.4%
1950-10-01+23.9%+11.6%
1949-10-01+21.5%+13.1%
1948-10-01+20.5%+13.8%
1947-10-01+21.2%+13.3%
1946-10-01+22.4%+12.6%
1945-10-01+23.0%+12.2%

Showing the 82 most recent of 304 observations — the full series is in the JSON: https://historyofmarket.com/api/aiae.json

Data & Source

GET /api/aiae.json — Canonical dataset endpoint.

Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.

FAQ

What is AIAE and where does it stand now?

AIAE divides US households' equity holdings by their total (equity + bond + cash) financial assets — how much of everyone's portfolio, summed, is in stocks. It currently reads +46.8%, the 98.7 percentile of history.

Where does this data come from?

History of Market combines public market and macro datasets — exchange closing prices, company filings, Robert Shiller, FRED, NBER, and the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Dimson–Marsh–Staunton). The exact endpoint for this panel is linked below.

How often is it updated?

Daily-tier datasets refresh after the U.S. market close, with a broader weekly refresh on Sunday. The timestamp shown on this page comes from the JSON payload.

Can I use the data?

Yes, for research and education with attribution to History of Market. Upstream data sources retain their own terms.