Oil Shock and Stagflation, 1973–1974
From its record close of 120.24 on January 11, 1973 to 62.28 on October 3, 1974, the S&P 500 fell 48.2% over 21 months. It closed above the old record again on July 17, 1980, 7.5 years after the peak.
- Decline
- −48.2%
- Record close
- 120.24January 11, 1973
- Low
- 62.28October 3, 1974
- Peak to low
- 21 months
- Back at the record
- July 17, 1980
- Peak to recovery
- 7.5 years
- 12 months after the low
- +38.0%
- Shiller CAPE at the peak
- 18.7
Twelve months after the bottom, the index was 38.0% above the low.
An NBER-dated recession overlapped the decline.
Every S&P 500 bear market since 1929
| Bear market | Peak → trough | Decline | Months down | Years to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 1929 Crash and the Great Depression | September 16, 1929 → June 1, 1932 | −86.2% | 32 | 25.0 |
| Suez and the 1957 Recession | August 3, 1956 → October 22, 1957 | −21.5% | 15 | 2.1 |
| The Kennedy Slide | December 12, 1961 → June 26, 1962 | −28.0% | 6 | 1.7 |
| The 1966 Credit Crunch | February 9, 1966 → October 7, 1966 | −22.2% | 8 | 1.2 |
| Inflation and the 1969–70 Recession | November 29, 1968 → May 26, 1970 | −36.1% | 18 | 3.3 |
| Oil Shock and Stagflation | January 11, 1973 → October 3, 1974 | −48.2% | 21 | 7.5 |
| Volcker's Rates and the 1981–82 Recession | November 28, 1980 → August 12, 1982 | −27.1% | 20 | 1.9 |
| Black Monday | August 25, 1987 → December 4, 1987 | −33.5% | 3 | 1.9 |
| The Dot-Com Bust | March 24, 2000 → October 9, 2002 | −49.1% | 31 | 7.2 |
| The Global Financial Crisis | October 9, 2007 → March 9, 2009 | −56.8% | 17 | 5.5 |
| The COVID Crash | February 19, 2020 → March 23, 2020 | −33.9% | 1 | 0.5 |
| Inflation and Rate Hikes | January 3, 2022 → October 12, 2022 | −25.4% | 9 | 2.0 |
Declines of 20% or more from a record close, on daily closes. A fall that starts below an older record, such as 1937–38, belongs to the bear market that began at that record.
FAQ
How much did the S&P 500 fall in the 1973–1974 bear market?
48.2%, from 120.24 on January 11, 1973 to 62.28 on October 3, 1974.
How long did the S&P 500 take to recover from the 1973–1974 bear market?
It closed above the old record again on July 17, 1980, 7.5 years after the peak.
What did the S&P 500 do in the year after the 1973–1974 low?
Twelve months after the bottom, the index was 38.0% above the low.
Data and sources
Drawdowns from record closes · Daily closes · Shiller CAPE · NBER recession months (via FRED)