标普 500 · 回报拆分（TTM 口径） — 每一年是估值年还是盈利年
涨幅归因 — 每一年的涨跌，拆成估值变化和盈利变化两部分。
1928 年起，每年的价格回报拆成两部分：PE 倍数变化与 TTM EPS 增长（希勒口径）。两者同向且一方占主导，标为「估值驱动」或「EPS 驱动」；同向且接近，标为「双轮驱动」；反向则标为「对抗」。2008–2009、2020、2023–2024 这些典型年份，图上看得最清楚。
本页回答什么
按 (1+价格回报)=(1+估值变化)×(1+盈利变化) 恒等式分解，标普 500的 98 个年度中：估值驱动 17 年、盈利驱动 13 年、双轮同向 5 年，其余年份两个引擎互相抵消。长期来看，回报主要由盈利增长贡献；估值变化决定单一年份的涨跌幅度。
1928 年起，每年的价格回报拆成两部分：PE 倍数变化与 TTM EPS 增长（希勒口径）。两者同向且一方占主导，标为「估值驱动」或「EPS 驱动」；同向且接近，标为「双轮驱动」；反向则标为「对抗」。2008–2009、2020、2023–2024 这些典型年份，图上看得最清楚。 数据由 History of Market 的自动刷新流水线发布为稳定 JSON，适合研究、引用和 AI 代理读取。
图版
最新摘要
- 更新
- 2026-08-14
- 样本数
- 98
- 样本数
- 98
- 样本区间
- 1928 – 2025
标普 500——逐年估值 × 盈利驱动分解
| 年份 | 价格回报 | 估值变化 | 盈利变化 | 驱动 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.4% | +2.3% | +11.5% | 盈利驱动 |
| 2024 | +23.3% | +17.5% | +6.2% | 估值驱动 |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +7.5% | +7.8% | 双轮驱动 |
| 2022 | -19.4% | -4.2% | -18.0% | 盈利驱动 |
| 2021 | +26.9% | -39.8% | +96.4% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2020 | +16.3% | +72.3% | -33.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 2019 | +28.9% | +17.5% | +3.0% | 估值驱动 |
| 2018 | -6.2% | -20.0% | +18.2% | 估值拖累 |
| 2017 | +19.4% | +2.1% | +13.8% | 盈利驱动 |
| 2016 | +9.5% | +0.1% | +7.0% | 盈利驱动 |
| 2015 | -0.7% | +18.2% | -16.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 2014 | +11.4% | +11.3% | +1.3% | 估值驱动 |
| 2013 | +29.6% | +9.7% | +14.1% | 双轮驱动 |
| 2012 | +13.4% | +15.0% | -2.2% | 估值拖累 |
| 2011 | -0.0% | -10.9% | +9.2% | 估值拖累 |
| 2010 | +12.8% | -26.3% | +49.5% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2009 | +23.5% | -63.1% | +233.4% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2008 | -38.5% | +163.9% | -77.5% | 估值拖累 |
| 2007 | +3.5% | +28.6% | -22.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 2006 | +13.6% | -3.8% | +13.8% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2005 | +3.0% | -11.8% | +15.3% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2004 | +9.0% | -7.6% | +16.3% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2003 | +26.4% | -32.0% | +73.4% | 盈利拖累 |
| 2002 | -23.4% | -29.7% | +9.2% | 估值拖累 |
| 2001 | -13.0% | +74.2% | -51.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 2000 | -10.1% | -10.3% | +0.4% | 估值驱动 |
| 1999 | +19.5% | -6.0% | +24.4% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1998 | +26.7% | +30.3% | -6.6% | 估值拖累 |
| 1997 | +31.0% | +26.3% | +0.9% | 估值驱动 |
| 1996 | +20.3% | +6.0% | +10.4% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1995 | +34.1% | +21.6% | +8.2% | 估值驱动 |
| 1994 | -1.5% | -30.1% | +36.1% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1993 | +7.1% | -6.7% | +11.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1992 | +4.5% | -6.2% | +16.2% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1991 | +26.3% | +57.9% | -27.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1990 | -6.6% | +1.1% | -12.1% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1989 | +27.3% | +30.9% | -8.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 1988 | +12.4% | -15.5% | +30.0% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1987 | +2.0% | -19.8% | +15.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1986 | +14.6% | +21.0% | -2.0% | 估值驱动 |
| 1985 | +26.3% | +43.5% | -15.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1984 | +1.4% | -15.6% | +14.1% | 估值拖累 |
| 1983 | +17.3% | +6.3% | +6.9% | 双轮驱动 |
| 1982 | +14.8% | +36.9% | -20.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1981 | -9.7% | -10.5% | -4.9% | 估值驱动 |
| 1980 | +25.8% | +24.3% | -11.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1979 | +12.3% | -6.9% | +6.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1978 | +1.1% | -9.6% | +3.9% | 估值拖累 |
| 1977 | -11.5% | -18.5% | +3.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 1976 | +19.2% | -5.1% | +18.7% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1975 | +31.6% | +47.8% | -16.3% | 估值拖累 |
| 1974 | -29.7% | -35.1% | -3.0% | 估值驱动 |
| 1973 | -17.4% | -36.5% | +16.9% | 估值拖累 |
| 1972 | +15.6% | +5.2% | +8.9% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1971 | +10.8% | -0.9% | +7.6% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1970 | +0.1% | +11.4% | -15.9% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1969 | -11.4% | -14.8% | -5.5% | 估值驱动 |
| 1968 | +7.7% | +3.4% | +3.2% | 双轮驱动 |
| 1967 | +20.1% | +22.1% | -6.8% | 估值拖累 |
| 1966 | -13.1% | -17.1% | +3.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1965 | +9.1% | -4.2% | +11.9% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1964 | +13.0% | 0.0% | +12.1% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1963 | +18.9% | +8.1% | +7.8% | 双轮驱动 |
| 1962 | -11.8% | -24.1% | +13.6% | 估值拖累 |
| 1961 | +23.1% | +29.5% | -3.1% | 估值拖累 |
| 1960 | -3.0% | -0.3% | -4.8% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1959 | +8.5% | -5.9% | +15.3% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1958 | +38.1% | +54.6% | -15.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1957 | -14.3% | -12.1% | -4.0% | 估值驱动 |
| 1956 | +2.6% | +8.7% | -8.5% | 估值拖累 |
| 1955 | +26.4% | -0.7% | +30.2% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1954 | +45.0% | +27.6% | +11.2% | 估值驱动 |
| 1953 | -6.6% | -8.9% | +3.8% | 估值拖累 |
| 1952 | +11.8% | +13.1% | -2.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1951 | +16.4% | +38.0% | -19.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 1950 | +21.7% | -2.5% | +15.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1949 | +10.5% | +7.5% | +3.5% | 估值驱动 |
| 1948 | -0.7% | -29.0% | +38.1% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1947 | 0.0% | -34.6% | +39.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1946 | -11.9% | -20.9% | -6.6% | 估值驱动 |
| 1945 | +30.7% | +28.1% | +1.0% | 估值驱动 |
| 1944 | +13.8% | +15.4% | -3.3% | 估值拖累 |
| 1943 | +19.5% | +32.1% | -11.4% | 估值拖累 |
| 1942 | +12.4% | +22.4% | -18.6% | 估值拖累 |
| 1941 | -17.9% | -24.7% | +0.5% | 估值驱动 |
| 1940 | -15.1% | -27.0% | +15.8% | 估值拖累 |
| 1939 | -5.2% | -30.7% | +40.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1938 | +24.6% | +103.4% | -41.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1937 | -38.6% | -41.7% | +7.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1936 | +27.9% | -2.5% | +32.3% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1935 | +41.4% | -9.2% | +50.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1934 | -4.7% | -16.6% | +9.7% | 估值拖累 |
| 1933 | +44.1% | +36.3% | +6.5% | 估值驱动 |
| 1932 | -14.8% | +20.2% | -25.1% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1931 | -47.1% | -13.5% | -30.7% | 盈利驱动 |
| 1930 | -28.5% | +20.3% | -35.6% | 盈利拖累 |
| 1929 | -11.9% | -20.8% | +16.0% | 估值拖累 |
| 1928 | +37.9% | +6.7% | +25.8% | 盈利驱动 |
完整记录共 98 行。原始序列见 JSON：https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json
数据与来源
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Exchange closing prices · Company filings · Robert Shiller · FRED · NBER.
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